CNH: Long-Term Vulnerability and Resilience of Coupled Human-Natural Ecosystems to Fire Regime and Climate Changes at an Ancient Wildland Urban Interface

随着全球气候的变化，大型野火已经成为国内和国际新闻的常规特征。这些火灾具有新闻价值，因为它们影响到成千上万人的生活和生计，因为火灾的类型与这些地方最近的历史如此不同。某些类型的火灾对于维持世界各地许多环境的关键结构和功能是必要的。人和气候都可以通过对点火和植被（燃料）的影响来改变这些环境所经历的火灾类型。在各种情况下，这些变化可能增加或减少火灾类型的风险，这些火灾将无法维持这些环境或依赖于它们的人类社会。虽然火灾和植被对天气/气候的物理和生态反应相对广为人知，但人类活动与火灾之间的相互作用却知之甚少，特别是在几个世纪的时间尺度上。我们需要更好地了解这些相互作用，以管理今天的森林，并预测未来高密度人类住区发展的社会和环境脆弱性——也被称为荒地-城市界面。在过去的半个世纪里，成千上万的房屋在以黄松（Pinus ponderosa）树为主的北美森林中建造起来。由于禁火和其他土地利用做法，这些森林和社区在干旱期间极易受到严重大火的影响。通过历史案例研究，该项目测试了人类活动如何在荒地-城市界面影响适应火灾的松林对气候变化的反应，以及人类如何应对这些变化的几个世纪的替代假设。研究区域是新墨西哥州北部的一个古老的荒地城市界面，在过去的1000年里，在不同的气候事件中，美国土著农民的大型社区生活在黄松林中。考古学和古生态学将结合起来，跨越人口规模的梯度，从大型城镇到相对无人居住的地区，建立多世纪的火灾和森林历史。将开发动态计算机模型，并使用古气候数据作为输入，他们将模拟整个景观和时间的火灾和森林历史。根据当地的火灾历史进行测试，这些模拟将在人类影响的大小和位置上有所不同，以确定这些森林和人类社区可持续性的临界点。这个项目产生的对人类社会、森林和气候的长期、景观尺度动态的理解，对于美国西部和其他地方的荒地城市界面的类似森林的可持续管理是必要的。该项目的信息将直接提供给在联邦和部落土地上从事景观级火灾和森林管理倡议的管理伙伴。对祖先生活在这些黄松林中的美洲印第安部落的参与性研究将使火灾和森林历史以及人类对环境变化的反应成为背景。参与研究和教育将加强科学家、管理人员和社区成员之间的关系，促进在管理决策中利用科学信息，以建立具有复原力的可持续森林。一项教育计划将通过制定和实施K-12课程计划，在该地区的科学和历史课堂上整合火灾社会问题，建立学习遗产。本科生和研究生的参与，美国印第安人研究伙伴和代表性不足的K-12学生的参与，以及与当代管理人员的联系，为以有意义、适用和持久的方式传播项目成果提供了广泛的能力。

As global climates change, large wildfires have become regular features of national and international news. These fires are newsworthy because they affect the lives and livelihoods of thousands of people and because the types of fire are so different than in the recent history of these places. Certain types of fire are necessary to sustain key structures and functions of many environments around the world. Both people and climate can alter the types of fire that these environments experience through their effects on fire ignitions and on vegetation (fuels). In various circumstances these alterations may either increase or decrease the risk for types of fires that will not sustain those environments or the human societies dependent upon them. Although the physical and ecological responses of fire and vegetation to weather/climate are relatively well known, the interplay between human activities and fire are poorly understood, especially over time scales of centuries. Improved understanding of these interactions is needed for managing these forests today, and for anticipating future social and environmental vulnerabilities where high-density human settlements have developed -- also known as the Wildland-Urban Interface. In the past half-century many thousands of homes have been built within North American forests dominated by ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) trees. These forests and communities are now extremely vulnerable to large, severe fires during droughts as a consequence of fire exclusion and other land use practices. Through a historical case study, this project tests alternative hypotheses of how human activities at the Wildland- Urban Interface affect the response of fire-adapted pine forests to climate change and conversely, how humans respond to these changes over multiple centuries. The study area is an ancient Wildland Urban Interface in northern New Mexico where large communities of Native American farmers lived within ponderosa pine forests through varying climate episodes over the last 1,000 years. Archaeology and paleoecology will be combined to build multi-century fire and forest histories across gradients of human population sizes, ranging from large towns to relatively unoccupied areas. Dynamic computer models will be developed, and using paleoclimatic data as input they will simulate fire and forest histories across the landscape and through time. Tested against the local fire histories, these simulations will be varied in the magnitude and location of human impacts to identify tipping points in the sustainability of these forests and human communities. The understanding of long-term, landscape-scale dynamics of human societies, forests, and climate generated by this project will be necessary for sustainable management of similar forests at the Wildland Urban Interface across the American West and elsewhere. Information from the project will be provided directly to manager-partners who are engaged in landscape-scale fire and forest management initiatives on federal and tribal lands. Participatory research with American Indian tribes whose ancestors lived in these ponderosa pine forests will contextualize the fire and forest histories and human responses to environmental changes. Participation in both research and education will strengthen the relationships between scientists, managers, and community members, facilitating the use of scientific information in management decisions aimed at establishing resilient, sustainable forests. An educational program will establish a legacy of learning by developing and implementing K-12 lesson plans that integrate fire-society issues in science and history classrooms in the region. The involvement of undergraduate and graduate students, participation of American Indian research partners and underrepresented K-12 students, and the linkages to contemporary managers provide a broad capacity to disseminate project results in meaningful, applicable, and lasting ways.