Topoclimate and plant distributions on the Cape Peninsula (South Africa): implications for resilience to climate change

人为气候变化对地球仪的生物多样性构成威胁。对气候敏感的物种最重要的反应之一是迁移和物种分布在整个景观中的变化。在山地景观中，地形的细微变化（南与北向斜坡，冷空气排放等）可以在相当小的空间尺度上产生广泛的气候条件。这种可变性可能使植物和动物能够通过分布的局部变化来应对全球气候变化，从而在面对时间变化的条件时提供空间弹性。这个项目将研究地形对南非开普敦植物区系的一部分桌山国家公园的小气候和植物分布的影响。灌木在Proteaceae的分布将在30米像素尺度的地形变化进行检查。将对昼夜和季节温度变化进行详细研究，以量化海拔直减率、海洋逆温层的出现以及坡度、坡向和冷空气排放的小规模影响。研究结果将用于开发地形气候的空间模型，并改进与气候有关的植物分布的统计模型。最后，未来的气候情景将被缩小到一个精细的空间尺度，并结合物种分布模型来检验假设，即地形气候异质性将提高人口的持久性，在面对气候变化。与拟议的研究，PI将教南非的研究生在空间分析和遗传学的统计方法为期两周的短期课程。将鼓励代表性不足的经济和族裔群体的学生参加。该讲习班将有助于发展统计专门知识和参与学生的职业生涯，并为继续开展国际合作奠定基础。

Anthropogenic climate change poses a threat to biodiversity across the globe. One of the most important responses for a species that is sensitive to climate is migration and a shift in species distributions across a landscape. In mountainous landscapes, fine-scale variation in topography (south vs. north-facing slopes, cold air drainages, etc.) can generate a wide range of climate conditions over a fairly small spatial scale. This variability may allow plants and animals to respond to global climate change through local shifts in distribution, providing spatial resilience in the face of temporally changing conditions. This project will examine the influence of topography on microclimate and plant distributions in Table Mountain National Park, part of the mega-diverse Cape Floristic Region of South Africa. Distributions of shrubs in the Proteaceae will be examined in relation to fine-scale topographic variation at a 30m pixel scale. A detailed study of diurnal and seasonal temperature variation will be conducted to quantify elevational lapse rates, the occurrence of marine inversion layers, and the small-scale effects of slope, aspect and cold air drainage. The results will be used to develop a spatial model of topoclimate and to refine statistical models of plant distributions in relation to climate. Finally, future climate scenarios will be downscaled to a fine spatial scale, and combined with species distribution models to test the hypothesis that topoclimatic heterogeneity will enhance population persistence in the face of climate change.In connection with the proposed research, the PI will teach a two-week short course for South African graduate students on statistical methods in spatial analysis and phylogenetics. Participation by students from underrepresented economic and ethnic groups will be encouraged. The workshop will contribute to development of statistical expertise and the professional careers of participating students, and build a foundation for continuing international collaboration.