Doctoral Dissertation Research in Economics: The Warring Forties: New Evidence on the Economic Consequences of World War II

第二次世界大战是美国经济，特别是战后经济和社会政策的重大事件。战争年代，经济发生了巨大变化；一些是由以前的趋势推动的，另一些是战争年代的产物。第二次世界大战后，主要的经济学和法学期刊开始讨论战争年代遗留下来的过剩资源是否会成为复苏和增长的障碍。最近，Field（2011）提出了修订建议，将20世纪20年代和30年代的技术进步和全要素生产率增长置于第二次世界大战之前。这个研究项目解决了关于战争年代和后来由于动员而导致的资源分配（或分配不当）的迄今未解决的问题。该项目的第一部分考虑了战争对20世纪40年代早期学龄群体受教育程度的影响，以及他们随后的劳动力市场结果。早期的研究强调了《退伍军人权利法案》对退伍军人受教育程度的积极影响，而动员对学龄群体的影响则可能是负面的。第二部分关注战时劳动力市场制度、战后国内移民激增和大紧缩之间的联系。最后一部分研究了战后工业生产率增长的原因，这些工业以不同的方式受到了动员努力的影响。通过研究经济变化和增长过程中的一些投入，每一章都推动我们更好地理解一个更大的问题：第二次世界大战的动员是如何影响战后经济增长的？

World War II was a significant event for the US economy, particularly for postwar economic and social policy. The war years saw dramatic changes in the economy; some fueled by previous trends and others a creation of the war years. Following World War II, leading economics and law journals took up the question of whether the glut of resources left over from the war years would be an obstacle to recovery and growth. More recently, Field (2011) has suggested revisions that place the 1920s and 30s ahead of World War II in terms of technological progress and total factor productivity growth. This research project addresses hitherto unanswered questions about the war years and subsequent allocation (or misallocation) of resources that resulted from mobilization.The first part of the project considers the war's effect on the educational attainment of the school age cohort in the early 1940s and their subsequent labor market outcomes. Earlier research highlighted the GI Bill's positive effect on the educational attainment of veterans, while mobilization's effect on the school age cohort was potentially negative. The second part focuses on the connection between wartime labor market institutions, the surge in postwar internal migration, and the Great Compression. The final part studies the causes of postwar productivity growth in industries that were, in different ways, caught up in the mobilization effort. By studying some of the inputs into the process of economic change and growth, each chapter pushes us toward a better understanding of a bigger question: How did mobilization for World War II affect postwar economic growth?