Doctoral Dissertation Research in Economics: Investigating the Economic Consequences of Atmospheric Nuclear Testing

20世纪50年代，美国在拉斯维加斯西北部的内华达州试验场进行了数十次大气层核试验。由于这些检测，数百万人暴露在有害的放射性物质中，但对健康和福利的全面影响尚不清楚。利用美国的辐射沉积数据，研究人员研究了辐射对美国农业和人类健康的影响。国家癌症研究所目前的工作还没有将辐射暴露估计与公开的美国生命统计数据和公共卫生数据结合起来。该项目填补了这一研究空白，并为这些测试对美国健康的直接影响提供了重要的见解。虽然只有内华达州、犹他州和亚利桑那州少数县的居民通过辐射暴露补偿法(RecA)获得了顺风向尘埃暴露的补偿，但该项目调查了内华达州测试对人类健康的影响是否远远超出RecA地区。调查员还审查了1951年至1958年期间大气试验产生的辐射沉积是否对农业部门造成了相当大的损害。研究对这种损害的适应性反应有助于洞察农业政策如何影响农业投资和对不利事件的反应。调查者使用简化形式的计量经济学方法，对国内大气测试造成的外部损害提供了严格的经验描述。这一研究方法使用县内多年来尘埃模式的外源变化来衡量放射性污染和感兴趣的结果之间的因果关系。研究人员使用美国国家农业统计局和美国农业普查的年度数据，衡量了辐射对农业生产率的直接影响，以及为应对这些生产率冲击而做出的调整。以前关于辐射暴露对健康影响的研究主要集中在确定顺风向人群中的癌症风险，并外推到普通人群。该项目使用全国核辐射模式和死亡率的差异来确定核辐射与公共健康之间的因果关系。使用这一方法，调查人员不仅测量了危害的地理范围，而且还测量了辐射暴露对区域死亡模式的时间影响。通过美国生命统计和多种死因数据，该项目更准确地确定了推动粗略死亡人数增加的原因渠道。

In the 1950s, the United States conducted scores of atmospheric nuclear tests at the Nevada Test Site just northwest of Las Vegas. Millions of people were exposed to harmful radioactive material as a result of these tests, but the full extent of the health and welfare effects are unknown. Using radiation deposition data for the United States, the investigator studies the effects fallout had on American agriculture and human health. Current work by the National Cancer Institute has not combined radiation exposure estimates with publicly available U.S. Vital Statistics and public health data. The project fills this research gap and provides important insights into the direct effect of these tests upon American health. Though only populations in a small number of counties in Nevada, Utah, and Arizona have been compensated for downwind fallout exposure through the Radiation Exposure Compensation Act (RECA), this project investigates whether the human health consequences of the Nevada tests extend far beyond the RECA region. The investigator also examines whether radiation deposition from atmospheric tests between 1951 and 1958 resulted in considerable damage to the agricultural sector. Studying adaptive responses to this damage provides insight into how agricultural policy shapes agricultural investment and responses to adverse events.The investigator uses reduced-form econometric methods to provide a rigorous empirical account of the external damage caused by domestic atmospheric testing. This research methodology uses exogenous within-county variation in fallout patterns across years to measure the causal relationship between radioactive pollution and outcomes of interest. Using annual data from the National Agricultural Statistics Service and U.S. Agricultural Censuses, the investigator measures the direct effects of fallout on agricultural productivity and the adjustments made in response to these productivity shocks. The previous studies on the health consequences of radiation exposure from tests have focused primarily on identifying cancer risks among downwind populations and extrapolating out to the general population. This project uses national variation in fallout patterns and mortality to identify the causal relationship between fallout and public health. Using this methodology, the investigator measures not only the geographic extent of the harm, but also the temporal effect of radiation exposure upon regional mortality patterns. Through U.S. Vital Statistics and the Multiple Cause of Death data, this project identifies the causal channels driving the increase in crude deaths more accurately.