Collaborative Research: The Great Depression, the New Deal, and the Origins of Modern State Government Fiscal Policies

合作研究：大萧条、新政和现代州政府财政政策的起源

• 批准号: 1357744
• 负责人: Price Fishback
• 金额: $ 35.56万
• 依托单位: University of Arizona
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2014
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2014-03-15 至 2020-02-29
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1357744&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; Great; Depression; New

The Great Recession of the 2000s has led to renewed debates about the appropriate responses of the national and state governments to economic crises and to long run trends. The debates and the government policies have their modern origins in the Great Depression and New Deal. The national and most state governments face continuing and future budgetary problems based on pension and health care promises that are currently underfunded. The 1930s offer the most relevant historical example to the current situation, as tax revenues at all levels dropped in the early 1930s, demands on state governments expanded, and the federal government provided a large amount of new funding to the states and established a host of policies. The states themselves began a fiscal revolution that expanded their capacity to generate revenue and the interactions between the national and state governments changed in ways that expanded the long run economic responsibilities of national and state governments in the economy. Thus, understanding how these policies were established in the 1930s can provide numerous insights into the modern policy issues. The Census Bureau stopped compiling state financial statistics during the years 1932 through 1936, leaving a gaping hole in a series that runs from 1915 to the present. This gap in the state fiscal data occurs precisely during the key years when modern state government policies were going through a fiscal revolution in response to the Depression and the New Deal. Our goal is to fill the gap by going directly to the reports of Treasurers and Auditors in each state to collect the financial data from 1930 through 1940. When the project is completed, we will have developed a panel data set that covers the period from 1915 through 1940 for the 48 contiguous states with information on total state revenues and expenditures, as well as with information on several revenue and expenditure categories. This panel will be matched up with a panel data set from 1919 through 1940 that contains information on state income per capita, farm activity, manufacturing activity, births, deaths, banking activity, federal spending in multiple categories, federal tax revenue in multiple categories, highway mileage built, construction in a variety of categories, weather, the political makeup of state legislatures and the governorship, and election results for congressional, presidential and gubernatorial elections.The broader impact of this proposal can be seen through the questions we will answer using this data. Some of the questions we plan to address are: Did the increased national government grants and loans encourage additional state spending and revenue or did the states respond by allowing the national spending to crowd out state spending and reduce tax collections? To what extent did the states introduce new types of taxes and new forms of expenditures in the 1920s and 1930s and what were the factors that led them to choose the specific forms? What was the impact of state deficits and surpluses on state economic activity after controlling for national spending?

2000年代的大衰退导致了关于国家和州政府对经济危机和长期趋势的适当反应的重新辩论。 这些争论和政府政策的现代起源于大萧条和新政。 国家和大多数州政府面临持续和未来的预算问题，这些问题是基于目前资金不足的养老金和医疗保健承诺。 20世纪30年代为当前的形势提供了最相关的历史例子，因为各级税收在20世纪30年代初下降，对州政府的需求扩大，联邦政府向各州提供了大量新的资金，并制定了一系列政策。 各州本身开始了一场财政革命，扩大了它们创造收入的能力，国家和州政府之间的互动也发生了变化，扩大了国家和州政府在经济中的长期经济责任。 因此，了解这些政策是如何在20世纪30年代建立的，可以为现代政策问题提供许多见解。 人口普查局在1932年至1936年期间停止编制州财政统计数据，在1915年至今的一系列数据中留下了一个巨大的漏洞。 州财政数据中的这一差距恰恰发生在现代州政府政策经历财政革命以应对大萧条和新政的关键年份。 我们的目标是填补差距，直接去每个州的财务主管和审计员的报告，收集1930年到1940年的财务数据。 当项目完成时，我们将开发一个面板数据集，涵盖1915年至1940年期间的48个相邻州的国家收入和支出总额的信息，以及几个收入和支出类别的信息。 该面板将与1919年至1940年的面板数据集相匹配，该数据集包含以下信息：州人均收入、农业活动、制造业活动、出生、死亡、银行活动、多个类别的联邦支出、多个类别的联邦税收、建成的高速公路里程、各种类别的建设、天气、州立法机构的政治构成和州长职位，以及国会、总统和州长选举的选举结果。通过我们将使用这些数据回答的问题，可以看出这一提议的更广泛影响。我们计划解决的一些问题是：增加的国家政府赠款和贷款是否鼓励了额外的国家支出和收入，或者各州是否通过允许国家支出挤出国家支出和减少税收来做出回应？ 在20世纪20年代和30年代，各州在多大程度上引入了新的税种和新的支出形式？是什么因素导致他们选择了具体的形式？ 在控制了国家支出之后，国家赤字和盈余对国家经济活动的影响是什么？