Doctoral Dissertation Research in Economics: The Impact of Mechanization and Market Integration on Industry Location in Germany and the Pennsylvania-Ohio-Virginia Region 1840-1910

什么因素决定工业化仍然是经济发展的重大问题之一。大多数关于工业化的实证研究都侧重于生产力和经济增长的跨国比较。这些国家比较的一个局限性是，它们往往忽视了大多数国家内部经济条件的多样性。本论文的研究项目将利用德国和宾夕法尼亚州-俄亥俄州-弗吉尼亚州地区工业发展的区域差异，分析自然资源禀赋、聚集经济、移民和企业选址的政治障碍对工业化的作用。首先分析的问题是机械化如何促进德国和宾夕法尼亚州-俄亥俄州-弗吉尼亚州地区制造业的地理集中。动力机械的引进创造了技术外溢的可能性，并为熟练技术人员分享当地劳动力市场带来了好处。此外，水力和蒸汽动力的采用引入了对河流和煤炭等自然资源的依赖。事实上，采用水力发电可能阻碍了产业集群的形成，因为使用水力发电需要位于有足够流量和空间建造水坝的河流上。相比之下，蒸汽机的采用可能会鼓励工业集中在煤矿周围，因为煤炭储量稀少，煤炭运输昂贵。比较机械化对德国和宾夕法尼亚州-俄亥俄州-弗吉尼亚州地区工业地理集中的影响，将有助于确定在不同条件下，这些机制中的哪一种塑造了工业景观。第二个研究问题是德意志帝国的政治统一如何影响工业区位。1871年之前的政治壁垒可能是对欠发达国家制造业的保护，在这种情况下，统一可能导致这些地区的去工业化。但是，统一也为已经密集的制造业中心增加了腹地，并可能鼓励企业进一步扩张，此外，统一可能改善欠发达国家的当地条件，使其对制造业更具吸引力。德意志帝国的建立恰逢铁路繁荣和制造业机械化，这使得很难区分这些事件对制造业地点的影响。通过将美国的县作为对照组，将德国的区作为处理组，可以更有效地考察政治和经济统一的影响。从德意志关税同盟和德意志帝国的制造业普查中收集了一组新的数据，记录了1846年至1907年间124个行业的电力使用和地区就业情况。类似的数据将从1840年至1910年的美国州制造业普查中收集。通过提供这些新的数据集，该项目将有助于我们了解欧洲和美国的工业化。所提出的分析也有望提高我们对政治和市场一体化的长期后果的理解。大多数经济学家和政策制定者都认为，市场扩张通常会增加整体福利，但当拥有不同监管框架的独立国家加入一个拥有共同监管的单一联盟时，当地产业会发生什么就不那么清楚了。

Which factors determine industrialization is still one of the great questions of economic development. Most empirical research on industrialization has focused on cross-country comparisons of productivity and economic growth. One limitation of these national comparisons is that they tend to overlook the diversity of economic conditions inside most countries. This dissertation research project will exploit regional differences in industrial development within Germany and the Pennsylvania- Ohio-Virginia region to analyze the role of natural resource endowments, agglomeration economies, and political barriers to migration and firm location for industrialization.The first question being analyzed is how mechanization contributed to the geographic concentration of manufacturing industries in Germany and the Pennsylvania-Ohio-Virginia region. The introduction of powered machinery created the potential for technology spillovers and benefits to shared local labor markets for skilled technicians. Furthermore, the adoption of water and steam power introduced dependence on natural resources like rivers and coal. In fact, the adoption of water power might have hindered the formation of industry clusters, because the use of water power required location on a river with sufficient flow and space for a dam. In contrast, the adoption of steam engines might have encouraged the concentration of industries around coal mines, because coal deposits were scarce and coal was expensive to transport. Comparing the effects of mechanization on the geographic concentration of industry in Germany and the Pennsylvania-Ohio-Virginia region will help to identify which of these mechanisms shaped the industrial landscape under the different conditions.The second research question pursued here is how the political unification of the German Empire affected industry location. It is possible that political barriers prior to 1871 served as protection for manufacturing in less developed states, in which case unification could have led to de-industrialization in these areas. But unification also added hinterland for establishments in already dense manufacturing centers and could have encouraged firms to spread out more.Furthermore, unification might have improved local conditions in less developed states and made them more attractive for manufacturing. The foundation of the German Empire coincided with the railway boom and mechanization in manufacturing, which makes it difficult to separate the impacts that these events had on the location of manufacturing. By using U.S. counties as a control group and districts in Germany as a treated group, one can examine more effectively the impact of political and economic unification. A new data set has been collected from the manufacturing censuses of the German Zollverein and the German Empire, which documents power use and regional employment for 124 industries between 1846 and 1907. Similar data will be collected from the U.S. state manufacturing censuses between 1840 and 1910. By making these new data sets available, this project will contribute to our knowledge about industrialization in Europe and the United States. The proposed analysis is also expected to improve our understanding of the long run consequences of political and market integration. Most economists and policy makers agree that market expansion generally increases overall welfare, but what happens to local industries when independent states with different regulatory frameworks join a single union with common regulation is less clear.