Doctoral Dissertation Research in Economics: The Impact of Mechanization and Market Integration on Industry Location in Germany and the Pennsylvania-Ohio-Virginia Region 1840-1910

哪些因素决定工业化仍然是经济发展的重大问题之一。大多数关于工业化的实证研究都集中在生产率和经济增长的跨国比较上。这些国家比较的一个局限是，它们往往忽略了大多数国家内部经济状况的多样性。本论文研究项目将利用德国和宾夕法尼亚-俄亥俄-弗吉尼亚地区工业发展的区域差异，分析自然资源禀赋、集聚经济、移民和企业区位的政治障碍对工业化的作用。要分析的第一个问题是机械化如何促成德国和宾夕法尼亚-俄亥俄-弗吉尼亚地区制造业的地理集中。动力机械的引进创造了技术溢出的潜力，并为熟练技术人员共享当地劳动力市场带来了好处。此外，采用水和蒸汽动力导致对河流和煤炭等自然资源的依赖。事实上，采用水力发电可能会阻碍产业集群的形成，因为使用水力发电需要在河流上有足够的流量和空间来建水坝。相比之下，蒸汽机的采用可能会鼓励工业集中在煤矿周围，因为煤炭储量稀缺，煤炭运输成本高昂。比较机械化对德国和宾夕法尼亚-俄亥俄-弗吉尼亚地区工业地理集中的影响，将有助于确定在不同条件下，是哪一种机制塑造了工业景观。第二个研究问题是德意志帝国的政治统一是如何影响工业区位的。1871年之前的政治障碍可能对欠发达国家的制造业起到了保护作用，在这种情况下，统一可能导致这些地区的去工业化。但是统一也为已经密集的制造业中心的企业增加了腹地，并可能鼓励企业向外扩张。此外，统一可能会改善欠发达国家的当地条件，使它们对制造业更具吸引力。德意志帝国的建立恰逢铁路繁荣和制造业机械化，这使得很难区分这些事件对制造业所在地的影响。以美国郡为对照组，以德国地区为实验组，可以更有效地研究政治和经济统一的影响。从德意志关税同盟和德意志帝国的制造业普查中收集了一组新的数据，记录了1846年至1907年间124个行业的用电量和地区就业情况。类似的数据将从1840年至1910年美国各州制造业人口普查中收集。通过提供这些新的数据集，该项目将有助于我们了解欧洲和美国的工业化情况。拟议的分析也有望提高我们对政治和市场一体化的长期后果的理解。大多数经济学家和政策制定者都同意，市场扩张通常会增加整体福利，但当拥有不同监管框架的独立国家加入一个拥有共同监管的单一联盟时，当地产业会发生什么就不那么清楚了。

Which factors determine industrialization is still one of the great questions of economic development. Most empirical research on industrialization has focused on cross-country comparisons of productivity and economic growth. One limitation of these national comparisons is that they tend to overlook the diversity of economic conditions inside most countries. This dissertation research project will exploit regional differences in industrial development within Germany and the Pennsylvania- Ohio-Virginia region to analyze the role of natural resource endowments, agglomeration economies, and political barriers to migration and firm location for industrialization.The first question being analyzed is how mechanization contributed to the geographic concentration of manufacturing industries in Germany and the Pennsylvania-Ohio-Virginia region. The introduction of powered machinery created the potential for technology spillovers and benefits to shared local labor markets for skilled technicians. Furthermore, the adoption of water and steam power introduced dependence on natural resources like rivers and coal. In fact, the adoption of water power might have hindered the formation of industry clusters, because the use of water power required location on a river with sufficient flow and space for a dam. In contrast, the adoption of steam engines might have encouraged the concentration of industries around coal mines, because coal deposits were scarce and coal was expensive to transport. Comparing the effects of mechanization on the geographic concentration of industry in Germany and the Pennsylvania-Ohio-Virginia region will help to identify which of these mechanisms shaped the industrial landscape under the different conditions.The second research question pursued here is how the political unification of the German Empire affected industry location. It is possible that political barriers prior to 1871 served as protection for manufacturing in less developed states, in which case unification could have led to de-industrialization in these areas. But unification also added hinterland for establishments in already dense manufacturing centers and could have encouraged firms to spread out more.Furthermore, unification might have improved local conditions in less developed states and made them more attractive for manufacturing. The foundation of the German Empire coincided with the railway boom and mechanization in manufacturing, which makes it difficult to separate the impacts that these events had on the location of manufacturing. By using U.S. counties as a control group and districts in Germany as a treated group, one can examine more effectively the impact of political and economic unification. A new data set has been collected from the manufacturing censuses of the German Zollverein and the German Empire, which documents power use and regional employment for 124 industries between 1846 and 1907. Similar data will be collected from the U.S. state manufacturing censuses between 1840 and 1910. By making these new data sets available, this project will contribute to our knowledge about industrialization in Europe and the United States. The proposed analysis is also expected to improve our understanding of the long run consequences of political and market integration. Most economists and policy makers agree that market expansion generally increases overall welfare, but what happens to local industries when independent states with different regulatory frameworks join a single union with common regulation is less clear.