Motivations and Movement: Modeling Migration to Buffer Zones of Three Costa Rican National Parks

David M. Hoffman博士（密西西比州立大学）将调查环境保护区（PAs）与周围缓冲地带人口增长之间的关系。有一种理论认为，保护和发展的结合创造了积极的经济和资源条件，这些条件具有由于移民而导致的人口增长的意想不到的后果。然而，关于保护区与缓冲区人口增长之间关系的研究仍然很少，没有定论，现有模型在很大程度上未经检验。此外，大多数研究并没有直接涉及移民本身，以确定模型是否准确地描述了他们的决策。了解这种关系对于改善人类生计，同时保护生物多样性至关重要。本研究通过开发一个基于移民的模型来描述和分析哥斯达黎加三个国家公园：阿雷纳尔、卡拉拉和巴拉本田的动机和运动，解决了这些关键的差距。霍夫曼博士的研究团队将使用文化共识建模技术与定性研究方法相结合，以发现定居在PA缓冲区的移民是否基于缓冲区的条件或他们来自的社区的条件而具有共同的迁移理由。此外，霍夫曼博士将与哥斯达黎加大学的研究人员合作，将移民对经济和环境条件的看法与哥斯达黎加政府的测量结果进行比较，并分析2011年人口普查中向公园缓冲区迁移的证据。这项研究很重要，因为它将通过移民观念的独特视角和文化共识模型的使用来检验当前假设的有效性。它还将制定一种方法来理解和模拟保护区与移徙之间的关系，这种方法将适用于哥斯达黎加以外的情况。研究结果将有助于当前关于保护与发展相结合的有效性和影响的辩论，并为保护从业者提供信息。该研究由美国国家科学基金会刺激竞争性研究实验项目（EPSCoR）和美国国家科学基金会文化人类学项目共同资助。

Dr. David M. Hoffman (Mississippi State University) will investigate the relationship between environmental protected areas (PAs) and the growth of human population in the buffer zones surrounding them. It has been theorized that the integration of conservation and development creates positive economic and resource conditions which have the unintended consequence of population growth due to in-migration. However, research into the relationship between PAs and buffer zone population growth remains sparse and inconclusive, and existing models are largely untested. In addition, most research has not engaged directly with migrants themselves to determine whether models accurately describe their decision-making. An understanding of this relationship is of critical importance to improving human livelihoods while also conserving biodiversity. This research addresses these critical gaps by developing a migrant-based model to describe and analyze motivations and movement towards three Costa Rican national parks: Arenal, Carara, and Barra Honda. Dr. Hoffman's research team will use cultural consensus modeling techniques in conjunction with qualitative research methodologies to discover whether migrants who settle in PA buffer zones share a common rationale for migration based on either conditions in the buffer zone or conditions in the communities from which they come. In addition Dr. Hoffman will collaborate with researchers at the University of Costa Rica to compare migrants' perceptions of economic and environmental conditions to those measured by the Costa Rican state, as well as analyze the 2011 census for evidence of migration to park buffer zones.This research is important because it will test the validity of current hypotheses via the unique lenses of migrant perceptions and the use of cultural consensus modeling. It also will develop a methodology for understanding and modeling the relationship between PAs and migration that will be applicable beyond the Costa Rican case. The results will contribute to current debates about the effectiveness and impacts of combining conservation and development, as well as inform conservation practitioners. The research is co-funded by the NSF Experimental Program to Stimulate Competitive Research (EPSCoR) and the NSF Cultural Anthropology Program.