Motivations and Movement: Modeling Migration to Buffer Zones of Three Costa Rican National Parks

大卫博士M.霍夫曼（密西西比州立大学）将调查环境保护区（PA）与其周围缓冲区人口增长之间的关系。理论上，保护和发展的结合创造了积极的经济和资源条件，但却产生了由于移民而导致的人口增长的意外后果。然而，保护区和缓冲区人口增长之间的关系的研究仍然稀疏和不确定的，现有的模型在很大程度上是未经测试的。此外，大多数研究都没有直接与移徙者本人接触，以确定模型是否准确地描述了他们的决策。了解这一关系对于改善人类生计和保护生物多样性至关重要。本研究通过开发一个基于移民的模型来描述和分析哥斯达黎加三个国家公园的动机和运动：阿纳尔，卡拉拉和巴拉本田，解决了这些关键的差距。霍夫曼博士的研究小组将使用文化共识建模技术结合定性研究方法，以发现定居在PA缓冲区的移民是否有共同的理由，根据缓冲区的条件或他们来自的社区的条件进行移民。此外，霍夫曼博士将与哥斯达黎加大学的研究人员合作，将移民对经济和环境条件的看法与哥斯达黎加政府衡量的情况进行比较，以及分析2011年人口普查的证据迁移到公园缓冲区。这项研究是重要的，因为它将测试目前的假设的有效性，通过独特的镜头移民的看法和使用的文化共识模型它还将制定一种方法，用于理解和模拟保护区与移徙之间的关系，这种关系将适用于哥斯达黎加以外的情况。研究结果将有助于当前关于保护和发展相结合的有效性和影响的辩论，并为保护工作者提供信息。该研究由NSF刺激竞争研究实验计划（EPSCoR）和NSF文化人类学计划共同资助。

Dr. David M. Hoffman (Mississippi State University) will investigate the relationship between environmental protected areas (PAs) and the growth of human population in the buffer zones surrounding them. It has been theorized that the integration of conservation and development creates positive economic and resource conditions which have the unintended consequence of population growth due to in-migration. However, research into the relationship between PAs and buffer zone population growth remains sparse and inconclusive, and existing models are largely untested. In addition, most research has not engaged directly with migrants themselves to determine whether models accurately describe their decision-making. An understanding of this relationship is of critical importance to improving human livelihoods while also conserving biodiversity. This research addresses these critical gaps by developing a migrant-based model to describe and analyze motivations and movement towards three Costa Rican national parks: Arenal, Carara, and Barra Honda. Dr. Hoffman's research team will use cultural consensus modeling techniques in conjunction with qualitative research methodologies to discover whether migrants who settle in PA buffer zones share a common rationale for migration based on either conditions in the buffer zone or conditions in the communities from which they come. In addition Dr. Hoffman will collaborate with researchers at the University of Costa Rica to compare migrants' perceptions of economic and environmental conditions to those measured by the Costa Rican state, as well as analyze the 2011 census for evidence of migration to park buffer zones.This research is important because it will test the validity of current hypotheses via the unique lenses of migrant perceptions and the use of cultural consensus modeling. It also will develop a methodology for understanding and modeling the relationship between PAs and migration that will be applicable beyond the Costa Rican case. The results will contribute to current debates about the effectiveness and impacts of combining conservation and development, as well as inform conservation practitioners. The research is co-funded by the NSF Experimental Program to Stimulate Competitive Research (EPSCoR) and the NSF Cultural Anthropology Program.