Motivations and Movement: Modeling Migration to Buffer Zones of Three Costa Rican National Parks

David M. Hoffman 博士（密西西比州立大学）将研究环境保护区 (PA) 与其周围缓冲区人口增长之间的关系。从理论上讲，保护与发展的结合创造了积极的经济和资源条件，但由于移民的流入，却带来了人口增长的意外后果。然而，对保护区与缓冲区人口增长之间关系的研究仍然很少且没有结论，现有模型基本上未经测试。此外，大多数研究并没有直接与移民本人接触来确定模型是否准确地描述了他们的决策。了解这种关系对于改善人类生计同时保护生物多样性至关重要。本研究通过开发基于移民的模型来描述和分析前往哥斯达黎加三个国家公园（阿雷纳尔、卡拉拉和巴拉本田）的动机和流动，从而解决了这些关键差距。霍夫曼博士的研究团队将使用文化共识建模技术与定性研究方法相结合，以发现在宾夕法尼亚州缓冲区定居的移民是否基于缓冲区的条件或他们来自的社区的条件具有共同的移民理由。此外，霍夫曼博士还将与哥斯达黎加大学的研究人员合作，将移民对经济和环境条件的看法与哥斯达黎加政府测量的看法进行比较，并分析 2011 年人口普查，寻找移民到公园缓冲区的证据。这项研究很重要，因为它将通过移民看法的独特视角和文化共识模型的使用来检验当前假设的有效性。它还将开发一种方法来理解和模拟保护区与移民之间的关系，该方法将适用于哥斯达黎加以外的情况。研究结果将有助于当前有关保护与发展相结合的有效性和影响的辩论，并为保护从业者提供信息。该研究由 NSF 刺激竞争研究实验计划 (EPSCoR) 和 NSF 文化人类学计划共同资助。

Dr. David M. Hoffman (Mississippi State University) will investigate the relationship between environmental protected areas (PAs) and the growth of human population in the buffer zones surrounding them. It has been theorized that the integration of conservation and development creates positive economic and resource conditions which have the unintended consequence of population growth due to in-migration. However, research into the relationship between PAs and buffer zone population growth remains sparse and inconclusive, and existing models are largely untested. In addition, most research has not engaged directly with migrants themselves to determine whether models accurately describe their decision-making. An understanding of this relationship is of critical importance to improving human livelihoods while also conserving biodiversity. This research addresses these critical gaps by developing a migrant-based model to describe and analyze motivations and movement towards three Costa Rican national parks: Arenal, Carara, and Barra Honda. Dr. Hoffman's research team will use cultural consensus modeling techniques in conjunction with qualitative research methodologies to discover whether migrants who settle in PA buffer zones share a common rationale for migration based on either conditions in the buffer zone or conditions in the communities from which they come. In addition Dr. Hoffman will collaborate with researchers at the University of Costa Rica to compare migrants' perceptions of economic and environmental conditions to those measured by the Costa Rican state, as well as analyze the 2011 census for evidence of migration to park buffer zones.This research is important because it will test the validity of current hypotheses via the unique lenses of migrant perceptions and the use of cultural consensus modeling. It also will develop a methodology for understanding and modeling the relationship between PAs and migration that will be applicable beyond the Costa Rican case. The results will contribute to current debates about the effectiveness and impacts of combining conservation and development, as well as inform conservation practitioners. The research is co-funded by the NSF Experimental Program to Stimulate Competitive Research (EPSCoR) and the NSF Cultural Anthropology Program.