Motivations and Movement: Modeling Migration to Buffer Zones of Three Costa Rican National Parks

戴维·M·霍夫曼博士(密西西比州立大学)将研究环境保护区(PA)与其周围缓冲区人口增长之间的关系。从理论上讲，保护与发展的结合创造了积极的经济和资源条件，而这些条件会导致人口因迁入而意外增长。然而，关于保护区和缓冲区人口增长之间的关系的研究仍然很少，也没有定论，现有的模型在很大程度上也没有得到检验。此外，大多数研究没有直接与移民本身接触，以确定模型是否准确地描述了他们的决策。了解这一关系对于改善人类生计和保护生物多样性至关重要。这项研究通过开发一个基于移民的模型来描述和分析前往三个哥斯达黎加国家公园的动机和移动，这项研究解决了这些关键差距：阿里纳尔、卡拉拉和巴拉·本田。霍夫曼博士的研究团队将使用文化共识建模技术，结合定性研究方法，发现定居在PA缓冲区的移民是否有共同的移民理由，无论是基于缓冲区的条件，还是基于他们所在社区的条件。此外，霍夫曼将与哥斯达黎加大学的研究人员合作，将移民对经济和环境状况的看法与哥斯达黎加政府测量的数据进行比较，并分析2011年的人口普查，以寻找移民到公园缓冲区的证据。这项研究之所以重要，是因为它将通过移民观念的独特视角和文化共识建模的使用来检验当前假设的有效性。它还将制定一种方法，用于理解和模拟保护区和移徙之间的关系，这种方法将适用于哥斯达黎加案件以外的情况。这一结果将有助于当前关于保护与发展相结合的有效性和影响的辩论，并为保护从业者提供信息。这项研究由NSF激励竞争研究实验计划(EPSCoR)和NSF文化人类学计划共同资助。

Dr. David M. Hoffman (Mississippi State University) will investigate the relationship between environmental protected areas (PAs) and the growth of human population in the buffer zones surrounding them. It has been theorized that the integration of conservation and development creates positive economic and resource conditions which have the unintended consequence of population growth due to in-migration. However, research into the relationship between PAs and buffer zone population growth remains sparse and inconclusive, and existing models are largely untested. In addition, most research has not engaged directly with migrants themselves to determine whether models accurately describe their decision-making. An understanding of this relationship is of critical importance to improving human livelihoods while also conserving biodiversity. This research addresses these critical gaps by developing a migrant-based model to describe and analyze motivations and movement towards three Costa Rican national parks: Arenal, Carara, and Barra Honda. Dr. Hoffman's research team will use cultural consensus modeling techniques in conjunction with qualitative research methodologies to discover whether migrants who settle in PA buffer zones share a common rationale for migration based on either conditions in the buffer zone or conditions in the communities from which they come. In addition Dr. Hoffman will collaborate with researchers at the University of Costa Rica to compare migrants' perceptions of economic and environmental conditions to those measured by the Costa Rican state, as well as analyze the 2011 census for evidence of migration to park buffer zones.This research is important because it will test the validity of current hypotheses via the unique lenses of migrant perceptions and the use of cultural consensus modeling. It also will develop a methodology for understanding and modeling the relationship between PAs and migration that will be applicable beyond the Costa Rican case. The results will contribute to current debates about the effectiveness and impacts of combining conservation and development, as well as inform conservation practitioners. The research is co-funded by the NSF Experimental Program to Stimulate Competitive Research (EPSCoR) and the NSF Cultural Anthropology Program.