RAPID: Assessment of the Drought Situation in the Horn of Africa

该RAPID项目将及时审查东非目前的干旱情况。有四个科学目标：(1)评估干旱的严重程度和受影响区域的范围；（ii）确定干旱的季节性；（iii）调查导致其异常严重程度的因素；(4)预测干旱持续到2012年的可能性。与非洲大多数地区相比，非洲之角要达到这一认识更具挑战性，因为季节周期的复杂性、影响该地区干旱的多种因素、无法获得某些受影响国家的气象数据，以及对该地区的气象研究历史较少。该预测将与佐治亚理工学院Peter Webster教授的研究小组合作进行。这个项目将增加对世界上一个经常受到天气灾害困扰的地区的气象学的了解，而我们目前对这些灾害的影响因素知之甚少。最后，该项目将展示一种预测方法，如果成功，将有可能应用于其他地点和情况。

This RAPID project will examine the current drought in East Africa in a timely manner. There are four scientific goals (i) to assess the severity of the drought and the extent of regional area affected; (ii) to determine the seasonal nature of the drought; (iii) to investigate the factors contributing to its unusual severity; and (iv) to predict the likelihood that the drought will persist into 2012. Reaching this understanding is more challenging for the Horn of Africa than for most areas of Africa because of the complexity of the seasonal cycle, the multiple factors that influence drought in this region, the lack of access to meteorological data from some of the countries afflicted, and the sparse history of meteorological research on this region. The prediction will be carried out in collaboration with the research group of Prof. Peter Webster of Georgia Institute of Technology.This project will increase understanding of meteorology in an area of the world that is frequently plagued by weather disasters and where we currently have little understanding of the factors governing such disasters. Finally the project will demonstrate a forecast approach that, if successful, has the potential to be applied to other locations and situations.