RAPID: Assessment of the Drought Situation in the Horn of Africa

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This RAPID project will examine the current drought in East Africa in a timely manner. There are four scientific goals (i) to assess the severity of the drought and the extent of regional area affected; (ii) to determine the seasonal nature of the drought; (iii) to investigate the factors contributing to its unusual severity; and (iv) to predict the likelihood that the drought will persist into 2012. Reaching this understanding is more challenging for the Horn of Africa than for most areas of Africa because of the complexity of the seasonal cycle, the multiple factors that influence drought in this region, the lack of access to meteorological data from some of the countries afflicted, and the sparse history of meteorological research on this region. The prediction will be carried out in collaboration with the research group of Prof. Peter Webster of Georgia Institute of Technology.This project will increase understanding of meteorology in an area of the world that is frequently plagued by weather disasters and where we currently have little understanding of the factors governing such disasters. Finally the project will demonstrate a forecast approach that, if successful, has the potential to be applied to other locations and situations.