Improved Assessment of the Economic Impacts of Drought in Arid Regions

改进干旱地区干旱经济影响的评估

• 批准号: 9116599
• 负责人: Robert Young
• 金额: $ 12.82万
• 依托单位: Colorado State University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Continuing Grant
• 财政年份: 1992
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 1992-04-15 至 1996-09-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=9116599&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Improved; Assessment; Economic; Impacts; Drought

In arid and semiarid regions of the United States, droughts can have substantive and even disastrous economic consequences on direct water users and on other activities related to the use of water. Traditionally, impacts on off- stream water uses such as in agriculture, municipal and in industrial activities, have been measured during droughts. Effects on in-stream and non-diversionary water uses have been heretofore largely ignored, as have the secondary (market-linked) economic impacts of reduced direct water diversions. A model will be developed where direct and secondary economic impacts will be measured including the effects on both market and non-market goods. This economic analysis will incorporate input-output techniques with discrete stochastic programming analysis and will be driven by historic meteorological data and hydrologic models. It will also reflect institutional and legislative constraints, and estimated farm, business and household reactions to drought. A real case study will be used to calibrate and test the model, and the existing water supply and storage systems will be tested against diverse disaster scenarios.

在美国的干旱和半干旱地区，干旱可能对直接用水者和与用水有关的其他活动产生重大甚至灾难性的经济后果。传统上，对农业、市政和工业活动等非流水使用的影响是在干旱期间衡量的。到目前为止，对流内和非转移水使用的影响在很大程度上被忽略了，减少直接调水带来的次要(与市场挂钩)经济影响也是如此。将制定一个模型，其中将衡量直接和次要的经济影响，包括对市场商品和非市场商品的影响。这一经济分析将把投入产出技术与离散随机规划分析结合起来，并将由历史气象驱动数据和水文模型。它还将反映体制和立法限制，以及估计农场、企业和家庭对干旱的反应。一个真实的案例研究将被用来校准和测试模型，现有的供水和储存系统将针对不同的灾难情景进行测试。