LTER: Long-Term Research at the Jornada Basin (LTER-VI)

Jornada盆地长期生态研究计划的总体目标是了解和量化旱地生态系统中产生自然和人类主导的替代状态的机制，并预测未来的状态及其对生态系统服务提供的影响。基于1858年开始的长期数据库，未来六年的研究将集中在五种类型的动态上：(1)多年生草原向荒漠化灌丛的转变，(2)向草地状态的逆转，(3)灌木主导状态的转变，(4)非本地草的入侵，(5)向人类主导状态的转变。本研究结合了严格的假设检验，通过启动新的实验，新颖地整合长期研究来解决新的问题，预测在变化的环境下的未来景观和生态系统服务的后果，以及扩展跨站点和区域研究。模拟建模将提高对当前模式的理解和对未来动态的预测。将在新墨西哥州、亚利桑那州和德克萨斯州的四所拉美裔服务机构为研究生和本科生提供培训机会。K-12和教师培训计划将提供探究式课程、实地考察、教师研讨会和公共教育活动。研究结果将通过讲习班、研讨会和在线通讯分发给科学家、土地管理人员和教育工作者。将在五大洲（北美和南美、亚洲、欧洲、澳大利亚）开展国际合作，以应对日益严重的荒漠化这一全球挑战。

The overall goal of the Jornada Basin Long Term Ecological Research Program is to understand and quantify the mechanisms that generate alternative natural and human-dominated states in dryland ecosystems, and to predict future states and their consequences for the provisioning of ecosystem services. Based on long-term databases beginning in 1858, research over the next six years will focus on five types of dynamics: (1) a shift from perennial grasslands to desertified shrublands, (2) a reversal to grassland states, (3) transitions among shrub-dominated states, (4) invasion by non-native grasses, and (5) transitions to human-dominated states. This research combines rigorous hypothesis testing through initiation of new experiments, novel integration of long-term studies to address new questions, forecasts of alternative future landscapes and consequences for ecosystem services under a changing environment, and extension of cross-site and regional studies. Simulation modeling will improve understanding of current patterns and prediction of future dynamics. Training opportunities will be provided for graduate and undergraduate students at four Hispanic-serving institutions in New Mexico, Arizona, and Texas. A K-12 and teacher-training program will provide inquiry-based curricula, field trips, teacher workshops, and public education events. Research findings will be distributed to scientists, land managers, and educators via workshops, seminars, and an on-line newsletter. International collaborations will occur on five continents (North and South America, Asia, Europe, Australia) to address the global challenge of increasing desertification.