Collaborative Research: EaSM2--Wildfires and Regional Climate Variability - Mechanisms, Modeling, and Prediction

合作研究：EaSM2——野火和区域气候变化——机制、建模和预测

• 批准号: 1243220
• 负责人: Yuhang Wang
• 金额: $ 121.55万
• 依托单位: Georgia Tech Research Corporation
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2013
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2013-05-01 至 2019-04-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1243220&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; EaSM2; Wildfires; Regional

Wildfire is a key component of the climate system and plays an important role in regulating regional climate variability. The overarching goal of this project is to elucidate the role of wildfire in decadal climate variation and prediction. On the basis of wildfire observations in the past decade, the regions that the variability of fire is large will be selected for targeted modeling analysis. The working hypotheses are that the observed fire variability is regulated by regional climate variation and that the climate feedbacks from fires increase regional climate variability. Consequently, the simulation of wildfires and their feedbacks is essential for predicting regional climate variability on a decadal scale. These hypotheses will be thoroughly tested and the mechanistic process will be carefully analyzed using an extensive suite of observations and selected ensembles of climate model simulations. In this project, the modeling capability of wildfires and their climate forcing will be developed by building a new Region-specific Fire Model with Ecosystem Feedbacks (RFMEF). Regional climate forcing by wildfires and fire feedbacks to regional climate variability will be quantified. Lastly fully interactive regional fire-climate variability feedbacks will be investigated to understand the projections of decadal regional climate variability. Understanding the interannual and decadal-scale regional climate variability is critical for designing and testing (regional) adaptation and mitigation strategies. Many atmospheric, oceanic, and ecosystem factors contribute to regional climate variability and most of these factors are already captured in the earth system models. One such factor not yet well represented is wildfire. The two-way interactions between regional climate variability and wildfire not only are important in improving the decadal-scale climate model simulation and prediction but also are necessary when applying the climate model to examine adaptation strategies targeted at the vulnerability induced by enhanced climate variation (due in part to these interactions) and to investigate the effectiveness of mitigation strategies of forest management practices. The open-source RFMEF fire model that will be developed for the Community Earth System Model (CESM) system and the climate modeling data that will be generated in the project will enable policy experts to conduct more in-depth analysis of climate policies in regions strongly affected by wildfire and allow other scientists to conduct climate simulations and prediction that include the fire-ecosystem-climate interactions and that are more suitable for their research and assessment needs.

野火是气候系统的重要组成部分，在调节区域气候变率方面发挥着重要作用。该项目的首要目标是阐明野火在十年气候变化和预测中的作用。根据近十年来的野火观测资料，选择火灾变化较大的区域进行有针对性的建模分析。工作的假设是，所观察到的火灾变率是由区域气候变化和气候反馈火灾增加区域气候变率。因此，模拟野火及其反馈对于预测十年尺度的区域气候变率至关重要。这些假设将得到彻底的检验，机械过程将使用一套广泛的观测和选定的气候模式模拟集合进行仔细分析。在这个项目中，野火及其气候强迫的建模能力将通过建立一个新的具有生态系统反馈的特定区域火灾模型（RFMEF）来开发。将量化野火和火灾对区域气候变率的反馈对区域气候的影响。最后，将研究完全相互作用的区域火灾-气候变率反馈，以了解十年期区域气候变率的预测。了解年际和十年尺度的区域气候变率对于设计和测试（区域）适应和减缓战略至关重要。许多大气、海洋和生态系统因子对区域气候变率有贡献，其中大部分因子已经被地球系统模式所捕获。其中一个尚未得到充分体现的因素是野火。区域气候变率和野火之间的双向相互作用不仅对改进十年尺度气候模式的模拟和预测很重要，而且在应用气候模式审查针对气候变率增加（部分由于这些相互作用）引起的脆弱性的适应战略和调查森林管理做法的缓解战略的有效性时也是必要的。将为社区地球系统模型（CESM）系统开发的开源RFMEF火灾模型和将在该项目中生成的气候建模数据将使政策专家能够对受野火严重影响的地区的气候政策进行更深入的分析，并使其他科学家能够进行气候模拟和预测，包括火灾生态系统，气候相互作用，更适合其研究和评估需要。