CAREER: End-of-life material flows from emerging lithium-ion battery systems

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1254688 (Babbitt) This project will quantify and characterize projected end-of-life (EOL) flows and attendant resource implications associated with deployment of lithium-ion batteries required for broad adoption of electric vehicles. While these batteries are a promising energy storage solution, their potential environmental tradeoffs are not well characterized. Recent work has focused on supply side issues, such as lithium availability, but key uncertainties surround the emergence and management of these batteries in the waste stream and the ability of domestic recycling infrastructure to recover scarce and valuable materials from a highly variable mix of discarded batteries. A proactive approach is required to prevent potential impacts of EOL battery generation and management. This project will generate a comprehensive assessment of EOL battery flows and material recovery potential, and to do so, will combine novel industrial ecology models with empirical approaches. The integrated research and education plan will address four challenges: (1) The volume and rate that lithium-ion batteries will reach the waste stream are unknown and not easily estimated with existing industrial ecology methods like material flow analysis (MFA), due to the "mismatch" between life spans of batteries and vehicles in which they are used. This project will adapt age-structured population models from biological ecology to create a "mixed lifespan material flow model" to forecast future waste flows of lithium-ion batteries; (2) Implementing this model is dependent on estimates of battery and vehicle life spans and future adoption rates, which are not fully characterized. Surveys, scenario modeling, and empirical methods will be used to parameterize the MFA and create fundamental data that can inform future study on batteries and sustainability; (3) The extent to which critical minerals and other valuable metals can be recovered to the global supply chain through battery recycling is unknown. This project will combine material flow results with empirical characterization of EOL battery material content and an assessment of domestic lithium-ion battery recycling capacity. This "reverse supply chain" will be evaluated against estimates of material demand required for battery adoption; (4) Systems-level sustainability considerations are often absent when new technology is developed. An integrated education program on "Life Cycle Thinking for Energy Storage Systems" will be built from research findings and shared with key stakeholders. The approach and industrial ecology models applied here provide insight to EOL batteries, but are translatable to other sectors (e.g., renewable energy systems). Research will be integrated into educational modules developed for a series of summer enrichment programs aimed at engaging K-12 students, primarily from underrepresented groups, in battery and sustainability research and inspiring them to pursue a sustainable engineering career.