Doctoral Dissertation Research in DRMS: Modeling the Dynamics of Agency-agency Partnerships before and following Extreme Events

DRMS 博士论文研究：对极端事件前后机构间伙伴关系的动态进行建模

• 批准号: 1261058
• 负责人: Jun Zhuang
• 金额: $ 1.25万
• 依托单位: SUNY at Buffalo
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2013
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2013-02-15 至 2015-01-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1261058&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Doctoral; Dissertation; Research; DRMS; Modeling

The objective of this research is to model and analyze partnership creation, length, and conclusion in networks of agencies responding to extreme events. The researchers develop models to explore how characteristics of partnerships could be used to predict dynamics in agency investment, commitment length, partnership selection, and exit timing. The research collects and validates data by interviewing agencies active in responding to extreme events. This project compares agency behavior in two separate disaster response scenarios, mathematically models the life-cycle of agency partnerships during disaster operations, and conducts controlled experiments to analyze agency decision making. Extreme events have had a significant impact on the world over the last several years, including earthquakes, tsunamis, hurricanes, and tropical storms. The scale and scope of events like Hurricane Sandy, the earthquake and tsunami in Japan, and the tornados around the United States make it imperative to increase our understanding of how government, non-governmental, and business agencies interact with one another in the aftermath of such extreme events. This study builds on previous work in emergency management to provide an analysis of the partnership selection and resource sharing processes that occur following an extreme event. By documenting the dynamical change in roles and flow of resources following extreme events, this work tests hypotheses regarding agencies and how they are impacted by partnerships, goals, roles, and prior involvement. With the support of a host of agencies that are actively involved in relief operations in the U.S. and around the world, the model results are checked for relevance, accuracy, and correct representation of the agencies and individuals responding to extreme events.

本研究的目的是模拟和分析在应对极端事件的机构网络中伙伴关系的建立、长度和结论。研究人员建立模型，探讨如何利用伙伴关系的特征来预测代理投资、承诺长度、伙伴关系选择和退出时机的动态。该研究通过采访积极应对极端事件的机构来收集和验证数据。本项目比较了两种不同灾害响应情景下的机构行为，在灾害行动中建立了机构伙伴关系生命周期的数学模型，并进行了对照实验来分析机构决策。在过去几年中，包括地震、海啸、飓风和热带风暴在内的极端事件对世界产生了重大影响。飓风桑迪、日本地震和海啸以及美国龙卷风等事件的规模和范围使我们有必要加深对政府、非政府组织和商业机构在这些极端事件发生后如何相互作用的理解。本研究以以往应急管理工作为基础，对极端事件后的伙伴选择和资源共享过程进行了分析。通过记录极端事件后角色和资源流动的动态变化，本工作检验了有关机构的假设，以及它们如何受到伙伴关系、目标、角色和先前参与的影响。在美国和世界各地积极参与救援行动的许多机构的支持下，对模型结果的相关性、准确性和对应对极端事件的机构和个人的正确代表进行了检查。