Collaborative Research: An innovative network to improve sea ice prediction in a changing Arctic

合作研究：改善北极变化中海冰预测的创新网络

• 批准号: 1303938
• 负责人: Lawrence Hamilton
• 金额: $ 15.54万
• 依托单位: University of New Hampshire
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2013
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2013-06-15 至 2018-11-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1303938&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Collaborative; Research; innovative; network; improve

Recent major changes in the extent, thickness and properties of arctic sea ice have captured attention and posed significant challenges to a diverse group of stakeholders, ranging from maritime safety and security, resource management and development, politicians, coastal communities, weather and climate forecasters, climate change researchers, and a growing segment of the general public. Sea ice forecasting on seasonal-to-interannual timescales, especially over the summer and into fall, is of particular interest. Though each stakeholder is driven by different priorities, all require improved monitoring, prediction, and communication of sea ice conditions. To date, sea ice modeling efforts have largely focused on climate scales (i.e., response to greenhouse gas forcing) or targeted synoptic forecasting in support of navigation. Sea ice forecasting on seasonal scales is a challenge because of: (1) high variability in atmospheric and oceanic influence, (2) observations for initialization and validation have limited coverage and/or high uncertainties, (3) limitations of current model capabilities, (4) inherent limitations in sea ice predictability, and (5) an Arctic system changing in ways without recent historical precedent.The SEARCH Sea Ice Outlook was implemented four years ago in an ad hoc fashion, requesting voluntary contributions to estimate September sea ice extent based on late spring (June 1) conditions. Contributions have been made using different methods that vary from complex (partially- and fully- coupled general circulation models and statistical relationships) to basic (trend extrapolation, heuristic, public poll). The Outlook will be organized and expanded into a more structured, coordinated and formal effort that focuses on tackling key barriers to sea ice forecasting, including rigorous evaluation of predictions, coordination and organization of relevant observations for initialization, evaluation of methods, and finally, an organizational network structure to manage the efforts and communicate results in new ways. This effort builds on the experience of the past four years and expands on structures already in place, leveraging resources and expertise at an international scale to help address a set of challenges recognized as priorities by a range of U.S. and international programs and organizations.Intellectual Merit - This project advances NSF?s goal of providing improved predictive tools for the Arctic by creating an innovative network of scientists and stakeholders to generate, assess and communicate arctic seasonal sea ice forecasts. The network?s focus is to develop new methods to evaluate forecasts, new metrics for synthesis and comparison across forecast methods and new approaches to initialize forecast methods with targeted observations. Finally, the network will investigate how different forecasting methods can be combined to exceed predictive skills of narrower approaches. The research team will explore how best to plan observations for improved seasonal predictions and how these predictions in turn can advance understanding of the evolving state of the arctic sea ice cover.Broader Impacts - Improved seasonal forecasts of arctic sea ice will be developed and disseminated for societal benefit. By fostering and coordinating an international network of researchers and leveraging a broad range of activities, the project provides information tailored to stakeholders? needs. In addition to rigorous evaluations of stakeholder information needs, the network will develop a common reference framework for key sea ice variables and predictors, generating integrated datasets and predicted fields for the scientific community and stakeholders. Activities will also be initiated to inform and engage the growing internet communities of citizen scientists, many of whom already show a strong interest in arctic science, have capabilities for their own original and potentially worthwhile analysis, and connect with wider networks of media and public discussion. The activities will include graduate students and post-docs who are mentored to conduct high-quality research at the intersection of fundamental and applied research. By entraining more young researchers into the network, the project also addresses an important need for qualified experts that can help address urgent questions concerning resource uses and ecosystem services impacted by rapid arctic sea ice change.

北极海冰的范围、厚度和性质最近发生的重大变化引起了人们的关注，并对各种利益攸关方群体构成了重大挑战，这些利益攸关方包括海事安全和安保、资源管理和开发、政治家、沿海社区、天气和气候预报员、气候变化研究人员以及越来越多的普通公众。季节到年际时间尺度的海冰预报，特别是夏季和秋季的海冰预报，特别令人感兴趣。虽然每个利益相关者都有不同的优先事项，但都需要改进对海冰状况的监测、预测和沟通。迄今为止，海冰建模工作主要集中在气候尺度上（即，对温室气体强迫的响应）或有针对性的天气预报以支持导航。季节尺度的海冰预测是一项挑战，因为：（1）大气和海洋影响的高度可变性，（2）初始化和验证观测的覆盖范围有限和/或不确定性高，（3）当前模式能力的局限性，（4）海冰可预测性的固有局限性，（5）北极系统的变化方式在最近的历史先例中是没有的。北极海冰展望是在四年前以一种特别的方式实施的，请求自愿捐款，以根据春末（6月1日）的情况估计9月份的海冰范围。所用的方法各不相同，从复杂的（部分和完全耦合的大气环流模式和统计关系）到基本的（趋势外推法、启发法、民意测验）。将对《展望》进行组织和扩展，使其成为一项结构更合理、更协调和更正式的工作，重点是解决海冰预报的主要障碍，包括严格评价预测、协调和组织相关观测以供启动、评价方法，最后是建立一个组织网络结构，以新的方式管理工作和交流结果。这一努力建立在过去四年的经验基础上，并在现有结构的基础上进行扩展，在国际范围内利用资源和专业知识，帮助解决一系列被美国和国际项目和组织视为优先事项的挑战。该组织的目标是通过创建一个由科学家和利益相关者组成的创新网络，为北极提供更好的预测工具，以生成、评估和传达北极季节性海冰预测。电视台？的重点是开发新的方法来评估预测，新的指标综合和比较预测方法和新的方法来初始化预测方法与有针对性的意见。最后，该网络将研究如何将不同的预测方法结合起来，以超越较窄方法的预测技能。研究小组将探索如何最好地规划观测以改进季节性预测，以及这些预测如何反过来促进对北极海冰覆盖变化状态的理解。更广泛的影响-将开发和传播改进的北极海冰季节性预测，以造福社会。通过促进和协调国际研究人员网络，并利用广泛的活动，该项目提供了针对利益攸关方的信息？需求除了严格评估利益攸关方的信息需求外，该网络还将为关键的海冰变量和预测因素制定一个共同参考框架，为科学界和利益攸关方生成综合数据集和预测场。还将开展活动，通知和参与不断增长的公民科学家的互联网社区，其中许多人已经对北极科学表现出浓厚的兴趣，有能力进行自己的原创和潜在的有价值的分析，并与更广泛的媒体和公众讨论网络连接。这些活动将包括研究生和博士后谁是指导进行高质量的研究在基础和应用研究的交叉点。通过吸引更多的年轻研究人员加入该网络，该项目还解决了对合格专家的重要需求，这些专家可以帮助解决受北极海冰快速变化影响的资源使用和生态系统服务的紧迫问题。