Analysis of Polar Module on the 2010 General Social Survey

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The circumpolar North has been experiencing strong climate and environmental changes, largely originating elsewhere but with implications not only for northern residents and ecosystems but for mid-latitude climate as well. Both northern and southern polar regions also are experiencing an increase in resource-directed human activities with ecosystem effects. Without public knowledge, prospects are worse for policies that sensibly address polar issues. The proposed research will utilize a unique information resource presented by the 2010 General Social Survey (GSS) polar module, conducting in-depth analysis with the potential to inform policy and with educational applications of results. The polar module questions were carried on the GSS in 2006 and again in 2010, before and after the International Polar Year (IPY, 2007-2008). Earlier work by Hamilton (2008) examined the 2006 responses in detail. The analysis proposed here will examine the 2010 polar module responses, and investigate how they relate to respondents - general and polar science knowledge, contact with science- or IPY-related activities, and their background or belief characteristics including education, age, gender and ideology. Because the same questions were first asked on the 2006 GSS, the research team will also study changes in polar-issue responses, using the panel component of GSS to detect individual, as well as social shifts. The approach involves thoughtful application of diverse tabular, graphic, and modeling techniques. Data analysis will be multifaceted and, where appropriate, state of the art. Guiding principles are robustness and replication, aimed at identifying nontrivial conclusions that show stability across variations in measurement and statistical techniques. Multivariate analysis will use probability-weighted binomial, multinomial or ordered logit modeling to test hypotheses about the effects of education, science knowledge, information sources, and other factors on perceptions about polar topics. Simpler examination of tables and graphs forms a critical first step before advancing to multivariate models. Presentations aimed at general-public audiences will visualize key findings through graphics. The polar module was designed around IPY, so its results will have substantially greater value in the immediate future, while IPY evaluations are ongoing. Cross-sectional data for the 2010 GSS were released in February 2011. These include about 700 first-time GSS respondents who answered the polar module questions. The panel component of 2010 GSS will be released in late spring 2011, and including about 700 additional interviews with the polar questions. Many people answered the polar questions twice, in 2006 and 2010. Analysis of the panel component could contribute to the ongoing assessment of IPY impacts. Results will be shared with other projects such as those on climate change education. Timely analysis of the 2010 GSS will also inform the design of new polar-issue questions for future national surveys. Deliverables from this analysis will include at least one academic paper and, importantly, one publicly accessible report. The report will be published by early summer 2012. Presentations of results in 2012 will be made at general public or stakeholder meetings, as well as appropriate professional forums. The GSS data are public, and the research team will archive additional programs developed to facilitate analysis of the polar module questions.