Arctic Village Dynamics: Longitudinal Study of Population, Environment, and Community Change in Alaska

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This project will develop, analyze, and share a database tracking yearly changes in population and migration for approximately 80 individual Arctic Alaska towns and villages, doubling the size of extant databases on this topic. Some of these communities face serious threats from erosion while other communities may see substantial impacts from transportation or resource development in the changing Arctic. All are experiencing complex and rapid socioeconomic changes as Indigenous communities in a globalizing environment. This database will measure population change and net migration, which provides key social indicators for assessing overall effects from many competing forces, and informing plans for the future. Previous work with preliminary versions of this database tested hypotheses about the impacts of the 2008 recession, and consequences of rising erosion in some villages on population dynamics. Newer analyses have compared population trends in northern Alaska with those of two other Inuit Arctic regions, Nunavut Territory in Canada, and Greenland.The organization of this database facilitates integration of community demographics with other types of data such as resource use, environmental observations, and regional or place-based socioeconomic and health indicators. The data collected focus primarily on demographic data, including birth and death rates as well as migration patterns. Applications to date include characterizing demographic aspects of community change; modeling electricity consumption of individual communities; and testing hypotheses about environmental and economic effects on net migration. New analyses planned for the first two years of this project will address (1) inter- and intra-regional comparisons of Arctic community trends; (2) detection and testing for change in response to sudden events, new policies, or economic and environmental forces already in motion; (3) magnitude and impact of continuing gender differences in migration from indigenous communities; and (4) further analysis of differences between communities of Arctic Alaska, Greenland and northern Canada. Reports on project findings, in appropriate formats, will address a range of scientific, Alaska stakeholder, and general public audiences.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.