Understanding changing ENSO flavors in the mid-Holocene laboratory.

厄尔尼诺/南方涛动(ENSO)事件可能对世界许多地区的区域气候产生深远影响。最近的研究表明，厄尔尼诺有两种主要的“味道”，其强度和海面温度(SST)模式截然不同：东太平洋厄尔尼诺较强烈，较暖的海温集中在东太平洋；中太平洋的厄尔尼诺较温和，较暖的海温集中在中太平洋。无论是模型还是观测结果都不能最终表明，随着温室气体变暖的进展，这些ENSO中的哪一种将占主导地位，这给整个太平洋盆地的区域气候变化预测带来了不确定性。为了帮助解决这种不确定性，夏威夷大学的一组科学家将进行一项古气候重建研究，重点是了解全新世中期(大约距今5000-7000年)ENSO特征对气候条件的反应。通过综合气候模型结果和古气候指标，该项目将调查ENSO风味的来源及其对热带气候变化的敏感性。此外，模拟实验将检验随机噪声在ENSO对气候变化的响应中的作用，这项研究将促进对过去气候条件下ENSO行为的理解，从而产生更好的热带未来气候变化的约束模式。该项目将支持两名职业生涯早期的科学家。

El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events can have profound impacts on regional climate in many parts of the world. Recent studies have shown that two primary "flavors" of El Niño exist, with distinct intensities and sea-surface temperature (SST) patterns: the Eastern Pacific El Niño, which is more intense, with warmer SSTs concentrated in the eastern Pacific; and the Central Pacific El Niño, which is more moderate, with warmer SSTs concentrated in the central Pacific. Neither models nor observations conclusively indicate which of these ENSO flavors will be dominant as greenhouse gas warming progresses, creating uncertainty in projections of regional climate change throughout the Pacific basin. To help address this uncertainty, a team of scientists from the University of Hawaii will undertake a paleoclimate reconstruction study focusing on understanding the response of ENSO flavors to climate conditions in the mid-Holocene (approximately 5000-7000 years before present). Through a synthesis of climate model results and paleoclimate proxies, the project will investigate the origin of ENSO flavors and their sensitivity to changes in tropical climate. In addition, modeling experiments will be performed to examine the role of stochastic noise in ENSO response to climate change.This research will advance the understanding of ENSO behavior under past climate conditions, leading to better-constrained models of future climate change in the tropics. The project will support two early-career scientists.