P2C2: High-resolution dynamical and statistical downscaling of El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) response in proxy-critical locations across the tropical Pacific

这个项目的目的是使用一个仅有大气的中尺度天气预报模式(WRF)来降低大气环流模式(GCM)的输出，以调查热带太平洋地区的局地和区域气候如何对从上一次冰盛期到现在的不同模式(或风格)的厄尔尼诺南方涛动(ENSO)做出反应。然后将缩小的全球海洋监测系统的产出与现有的ENSO替代记录(加拉帕戈斯、东太平洋沿岸、莱恩群岛和帕劳)进行比较，以便定量评估ENSO在这些地点的影响的多样性。这种方法考虑了独特的地形和天气气候的局地方面如何调节ENSO引起的区域大气环流的复杂性。最终目标将是通过模式-数据比较更好地解释ENSO替代记录，从而加深对ENSO可变性的理解。潜在的更广泛的影响包括：1)使用最先进的模式(例如，降水、土壤湿度、温度)建立一套缩小尺度的气候变量；2)建立一个数据库，用于记录几个替代记录地点和气候的ENSO事件的预期范围；3)在类似的空间尺度上对ENSO进行古气候数据模型比较(缩小的模式输出)。这些产品将对古气候社区以及与ENSO事件相关的天气预报和风险预测社区有用。这位研究人员将与秘鲁国家气象和水文学服务机构建立合作关系，并开发一门关于气候建模和统计的在线课程。这一奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力优势和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

This project aims to use an atmosphere-only mesoscale weather forecasting model (WRF) to downscale general circulation model (GCM) outputs in order to investigate how local and regional climate in the tropical Pacific region respond to different patterns (or flavors) of El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) from the last Glacial maximum to present. The downscaled GCM outputs will then be compared to ENSO proxy-records where they exist (Galapagos, eastern Pacific coasts, Line Islands and Palau) in order to quantitatively assess the diversity of ENSO impacts in these locations. This approach considers how the unique terrain and the local aspect of weather and climate modulate the complexity of ENSO-induced regional atmospheric circulation. The ultimate goal will be a better interpretation of ENSO proxy records and therefore a deeper understanding of ENSO variability through model-data comparison.The potential Broader Impacts include: 1) a suite of downscaled climate variables with state-of-the-art models (e.g. precipitation, soil moisture, temperature); 2) a database for expected range of recorded ENSO events at several proxy-record locations and climates; 3) a paleoclimate data-model comparison of ENSO at similar spatial scales (downscaled model outputs). These products will be useful for the paleoclimate communities, and for weather forecasting and risk prediction-associated with ENSO events- communities. The researcher will establish a collaboration with the national meteorology and hydrology service in Peru and develop an online course on modeling and statistics of climate.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.