Collaborative Research: Risk Informed Decision Making for Maintenance of Deteriorating Distribution Poles Under Extreme Wind Hazards
合作研究:在极端风灾下维护恶化的配电杆的风险知情决策
基本信息
- 批准号:1333943
- 负责人:
- 金额:$ 18万
- 依托单位:
- 依托单位国家:美国
- 项目类别:Standard Grant
- 财政年份:2013
- 资助国家:美国
- 起止时间:2013-09-01 至 2017-08-31
- 项目状态:已结题
- 来源:
- 关键词:
项目摘要
Distribution of electricity in the United States relies on overhead lines supported by wood poles. This distribution system suffers damage in high wind events resulting in interruption in electrical power to businesses and residencies. The wood poles suffer from the combined effect of aging and increasing stress from wind hazards leading to an unreliable and potentially unsafe distribution infrastructure. Over 100 million distribution poles, which are part of the critical energy delivery infrastructure, suffer immensely during wind storms. Current methods for predicting the distribution of times-to-failure of a general set of power system components do not address simultaneous effects of aging and hazards with a holistic view. Research on age-at-failure of poles has been sparse, incomplete, and inconsistent. This results in increased uncertainties in predictions of pole lifetimes, thus obstructing informed and accurate decision-making on effective pole management strategies.The project proposes the development of stochastic Finite Element models for distribution poles integrated with time-dependent decay models to simulate the current and future state of the response of distribution poles to various climate conditions. Epistemic uncertainties will be reduced and various sources of aleatoric uncertainties in capacity and demand modeling will be captured. A novel strategy utilizing n-dimensional fragility surfaces integrated with regional hurricane hazard models will be merged to estimate failure probabilities, develop predictive models for the time-to-failure of distribution poles, and quantify the confidence levels in the predictions. A priority-based diagnostics and risk-informed maintenance framework will be developed on the basis of stochastic optimization for distribution networks that takes into account both the geographic exposure of the physical components to stressors and their importance for the reliability of the networks. The success afforded by this approach does not guarantee failure avoidance, but points to the regions in networks where use of well-maintained infrastructure may lower the risk of failures during storms and also provides guidance in selecting the poles for preventive replacement under normal operating circumstances.
美国的电力分配依靠木杆支撑的架空电线。该配电系统在大风事件中受损,导致企业和居民的电力供应中断。木杆受到老化和风害压力增加的综合影响,导致配电基础设施不可靠和潜在不安全。作为关键的能源输送基础设施的一部分,1亿多根配电杆在暴风雨期间遭受巨大损失。目前用于预测一组通用电力系统部件的故障时间分布的方法不能从整体上解决老化和危险的同时影响。关于电杆失效年龄的研究一直是稀少、不完整和不一致的。该项目提出了结合时变衰减模型的配电杆随机有限元模型,以模拟配电杆在不同气候条件下的当前和未来响应状态。认知性不确定性将减少,产能和需求建模中任意不确定性的各种来源将被捕获。一种利用n维脆弱性表面与区域飓风风险模型相结合的新策略将被合并来估计故障概率,开发配电杆故障时间的预测模型,并量化预测中的置信度水平。将在配电网随机优化的基础上制定基于优先级的诊断和风险信息维护框架,该框架既考虑了物理部件在地理上对应激源的暴露,也考虑了它们对网络可靠性的重要性。这种方法所取得的成功并不能保证故障的避免,但指出在某些地区的网络中,使用维护良好的基础设施可能会降低风暴期间的故障风险,并为选择在正常运行情况下进行预防性更换的电杆提供指导。
项目成果
期刊论文数量(1)
专著数量(0)
科研奖励数量(0)
会议论文数量(0)
专利数量(0)
On confidence intervals for failure probability estimates in Kriging-based reliability analysis
- DOI:10.1016/j.ress.2019.106758
- 发表时间:2020-04
- 期刊:
- 影响因子:0
- 作者:Zeyu Wang;A. Shafieezadeh
- 通讯作者:Zeyu Wang;A. Shafieezadeh
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Abdollah Shafieezadeh其他文献
Shake table testing and computational investigation of the seismic performance of modularized suspended building systems
- DOI:
10.1007/s10518-020-00902-3 - 发表时间:
2020 - 期刊:
- 影响因子:4.6
- 作者:
Zhihang Ye;Gang Wu;De-Cheng Feng;Abdollah Shafieezadeh - 通讯作者:
Abdollah Shafieezadeh
System outage fragility for power systems: A robust data-driven framework for disparity analysis using multiple hurricane events
电力系统的系统停运脆弱性:一种使用多个飓风事件进行差异分析的稳健数据驱动框架
- DOI:
10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105240 - 发表时间:
2025-02-15 - 期刊:
- 影响因子:4.500
- 作者:
Alexys H Rodríguez A;Abdollah Shafieezadeh;Alper Yilmaz - 通讯作者:
Alper Yilmaz
Optimal EDPs for Post-Earthquake Damage Assessment of Extended Pile-Shaft–Supported Bridges Subjected to Transverse Spreading
用于横向扩展的加长桩轴支撑桥梁震后损伤评估的最佳 EDP
- DOI:
10.1193/090417eqs171m - 发表时间:
2019-08 - 期刊:
- 影响因子:5
- 作者:
Abdollah Shafieezadeh;Xiaowei Wang;Aijun Ye - 通讯作者:
Aijun Ye
Wind-induced transmission line interruption fragility models: An adaptive GAN-augmented probabilistic classification approach for extremely unbalanced data
风致输电线路中断脆弱性模型:一种针对极度不平衡数据的自适应生成对抗网络增强概率分类方法
- DOI:
10.1016/j.egyai.2025.100511 - 发表时间:
2025-05-01 - 期刊:
- 影响因子:9.600
- 作者:
Mazin Al-Mahrouqi;Abdollah Shafieezadeh;Jieun Hur;Jae-Wook Jung;Jeong-Gon Ha;Daegi Hahm - 通讯作者:
Daegi Hahm
Robust wind turbine monitoring for digital twin integration: A physics-informed covariance-preserving deep learning approach
用于数字孪生集成的稳健的风力涡轮机监测:一种基于物理信息且保持协方差的深度学习方法
- DOI:
10.1016/j.renene.2025.123176 - 发表时间:
2025-09-01 - 期刊:
- 影响因子:9.100
- 作者:
Minhyeok Ko;Abdollah Shafieezadeh - 通讯作者:
Abdollah Shafieezadeh
Abdollah Shafieezadeh的其他文献
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{{ truncateString('Abdollah Shafieezadeh', 18)}}的其他基金
Collaborative Research: A Deeply Integrated Physics-Based and Data-Driven Approach for Effective Resilience Management of the Power Grid
协作研究:基于物理和数据驱动的深度集成方法,用于有效的电网弹性管理
- 批准号:
2000156 - 财政年份:2020
- 资助金额:
$ 18万 - 项目类别:
Standard Grant
Collaborative Research: Downburst Fragility Characterization of Transmission Line Systems Using Experimental and Validated Stochastic Numerical Simulations
合作研究:使用实验和验证的随机数值模拟来表征传输线系统的下击暴脆性
- 批准号:
1762918 - 财政年份:2018
- 资助金额:
$ 18万 - 项目类别:
Standard Grant
Experimentally Validated Stochastic Numerical Framework to Generate Multi-Dimensional Fragilities for Hurricane Resilience Enhancement of Transmission Systems
经过实验验证的随机数值框架可生成多维脆弱性以增强传输系统的飓风弹性
- 批准号:
1635569 - 财政年份:2016
- 资助金额:
$ 18万 - 项目类别:
Standard Grant
A Novel Dynamically Coupled Storm Surge Hazard-Infrastructure Model for Effective Real-Time Risk-Informed Decision Making
用于有效实时风险知情决策的新型动态耦合风暴潮灾害基础设施模型
- 批准号:
1563372 - 财政年份:2016
- 资助金额:
$ 18万 - 项目类别:
Standard Grant
Collaborative Research: Novel Fractional Order Ground Motion Intensity Measures for High Confidence Risk Assessment of Distributed Infrastructures
合作研究:用于分布式基础设施高置信度风险评估的新型分数阶地震动强度测量
- 批准号:
1462183 - 财政年份:2015
- 资助金额:
$ 18万 - 项目类别:
Standard Grant
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