Collaborative Research: Preferences and Equilibrium in Laboratory Financial Markets

一般均衡(GE)理论是经济学家用来理解市场如何在社会中产生价格和分配资源的数学框架。然而，通用电气不可能直接在现场进行测试，因为主要的输入是个人的偏好，是外部分析师不知道的私人信息。在实验室工作了几十年后，一些经济学家通过诱导人为偏好来测试GE理论的各个方面。与此同时，另一组经济学家研究了如何衡量个人的实际偏好，他们使用了一套不同的理论，名为“显性偏好”，该理论从面对不同的物价和收入水平时做出的选择来推断个人的偏好。值得注意的是，这两个经济学研究的两极从未被经验地结合在一起并共同研究：经济学家们没有系统地调查揭示的偏好是否会导致通用电气领导下预测的市场结果。我们的研究将通过一系列新的实验开始填补这一空白。这项研究将让我们对GE理论的预测能力有一个新的洞察，并对相互关联的市场，特别是金融市场的功能有一个新的、更深入的洞察。我们的第一个项目开始于对投资组合选择的一个显著的显性偏好方法的微小变化。随后的项目逐渐将简单的偏好诱导转变为最先进的市场交易机构。个人决策任务逐渐转变为成熟的互动市场，但做出选择的机制始终保持几乎相同，使我们能够可靠地比较不同环境下的行为。一套名为EdgeWorks的新软件工具将在一个统一的可视化框架中实现整个序列。这项研究将深入了解相互依赖的(多商品)市场的效率和稳定性，特别是金融市场的重要方面。它还将有助于揭示在面对市场经验时，引出的偏好的稳健性，包括最近存在争议的方面，如小规模风险厌恶和参考依赖。

General Equilibrium (GE) theory is the mathematical framework that economists use to understand how markets generate prices and distribute resources within a society. However, GE is impossible to directly test in the field because a primary input, the preferences of individuals, is private information not known to outside analysts. Working in the laboratory over several decades, some economists have instead tested aspects of GE theory by inducing artificial preferences. In parallel, another group of economists has studied how to measure the actual preferences of individuals, using a different body of theory called 'Revealed Preferences' that infers individual preferences from choices made in the face of varying prices and income levels. Remarkably, these two poles of economic research have never been brought together empirically and studied jointly: economists have not systematically investigated whether revealed preferences lead to the market outcomes predicted under GE. Our research will begin to fill this gap through a series of new experiments. This research will give us new insight into the predictive power of GE theory and a new, deeper insight into the functioning of interconnected markets, especially financial markets.Our first project begins with a slight variation on a prominent revealed preference approach to portfolio choice. Subsequent projects incrementally transform simple preference elicitation into state-of-the-art market trading institutions. Individual decision-making tasks are gradually transformed into full-blown interactive markets, but the mechanics of making choices remains nearly identical throughout, allowing us to reliably compare behavior across settings. A suite of new software tools, called Edgeworks, will implement the entire sequence in a unified visual framework. This research will give insight into the efficiency and stability of interdependent (multi-good) markets, especially important aspects of financial markets. It will also help reveal the robustness of elicited preferences in the face of market experience, including recently controversial aspects such as small stakes risk aversion and reference dependence.