Collaborative Research: Understanding Arctic Marine Biogeochemical Response to Climate Change for Seasonal to Decadal Prediction Using Regional and Global Climate System Models

北冰洋正在经历与全球变暖相关的快速和戏剧性的环境变化。作为海洋、大气、冰冻圈和陆地表面之间复杂和耦合系统相互作用的一部分，这些变化影响到北极海洋碳循环，并对全球地球系统产生重要反馈，包括改变大气温室气体的浓度。以前的和正在进行的研究已经为利用观测研究、区域冰洋模拟和最近的全球碳循环模拟改善对北极碳汇和碳源的理解奠定了基础。然而，在理解北极海洋碳收支的可变性和变化方面仍然存在很大的不确定性，这与现有的工具难以调和。该项目将使用区域北极系统模型，该模型由涡旋分辨海洋和海冰模型中的海洋生物地球化学成分组成，以促进对北极生物地球化学系统的理解和预测，包括陆架-盆地和垂直养分交换、次表层叶绿素最大值、冰缘和冰下水华及其在生态系统应对气候变化中的作用。它以调查小组最近和正在进行的研究为基础，包括为全球海冰/海洋模型和高分辨率区域北极系统模型开发和评价海洋生物地球化学组成部分。该模型在十年的时间尺度上模拟了海冰、海洋、大气和陆地之间的质量和能量交换，在横向边界使用基于观测的大气和海洋数据集，具有区域约束的可变性。这项研究将：(1)评估和改进已建立的海洋生物地球化学模型，以及(2)在现有模型基础设施中增加新开发的海冰藻类生物地球化学组成部分。这些模型的改进将有助于更好地量化北极海洋初级生产力的变异性、复杂性和变化。这项研究的总体目标是全面了解物理系统组成部分与北极海洋碳循环之间的相互作用，并以量化的不确定性推进季节到百年时间尺度的北极系统预测。

The Arctic Ocean is experiencing rapid and dramatic environmental changes related to global warming. These changes affect the arctic marine carbon cycle as part of complex and coupled system interactions between the ocean, atmosphere, cryosphere and land surfaces, with important feedbacks to the global Earth System, including altering the concentration of atmospheric greenhouse gases. Previous and ongoing studies have laid the foundations for improving the understanding of arctic carbon sinks and sources using observational studies, regional ice-ocean modeling, and recent global carbon cycle simulations. However, there remain large uncertainties in the understanding of variability and change in the arctic marine carbon budget that are difficult to reconcile with existing tools.This project will use the Regional Arctic System Model, comprised of marine biogeochemistry components in the eddy-resolving ocean and sea ice models to advance understanding and prediction of the arctic biogeochemical system, including shelf-basin and vertical nutrient exchange, the subsurface chlorophyll maximum, ice edge and under ice blooms and their role in ecosystem response to climate change. It builds on the recent and ongoing research by the team of investigators, including the development and evaluation of the marine biogeochemistry components for global sea ice/ocean models and the high resolution Regional Arctic System Model. The model simulates mass and energy exchange between sea ice, ocean, atmosphere and land on decadal timescales, with regionally constrained variability using observationally based atmospheric and oceanic datasets at lateral boundaries. The research will: (i) evaluate and refine the established ocean marine biogeochemistry model, and (ii) add a newly developed sea ice algal biogeochemistry component within the existing model infrastructure. These model enhancements will help better quantify variability, complexity, and change in arctic marine primary production. The overarching goal of this study is to achieve a comprehensive understanding of interactions between physical system components and the arctic marine carbon cycle, and to advance arctic system prediction at seasonal to centennial time scales with quantified uncertainty.