A Mechanistic framework for elucidating temperature effects on population and community dynamics

这个项目考察了气候变化对生物多样性和外来物种传播的影响，这是美国和地球面临的两个最大的环境问题。将开发新的数学模型，以预测温度对单个生物体的生物化学和生理的影响如何转化为物种相互作用，进而产生我们在自然界中观察到的大规模生物多样性模式。由此产生的智力挑战需要在生物学内的几个子领域以及生物学和数学之间进行整合。与此同时，这项研究也产生了巨大的社会影响。结果将为害虫和病原体的生物防治提供信息，无论是单独使用还是与虫害综合管理方案相结合，都可以减少杀虫剂的使用，最大限度地减少对水源的污染和对人类和牲畜的相关健康风险。同样重要的是该项目对教育的贡献。它将培训学生和博士后研究人员开发严格的、定量的方法来解决环境问题，并通过这样做，显著推进生态学和进化生物学的概念边界。将使用一种复杂的方法来应对这些智力和社会挑战。将整合四个创新部分，以研究温度影响物种相互作用的生态和进化动力学的机制。首先，新的理论将建立在热力学的基本原理上，以预测温度对生物化学过程的影响，如反应动力学，这是重要的生活史特征的基础。然后，这些预测将被合并到延迟-差异种群模型中，该模型真实地捕捉到外温生命周期的关键特征。其次，种群动态和物种相互作用的模型将用实验室操作产生的实验数据进行参数化。第三，模型及其预测将通过将输出与自然种群中随时间收集的丰度数据进行比较来验证。最后一个部分将使用定量遗传学方法来确定温度对生态特征的影响(以反应规范衡量)如何影响热反应的进化。这些单独的组成部分将通过生态进化模型进行整合，以预测对热环境的扰动(例如气候变化)如何在单独的生态动力学(如果物种不能适应热环境的变化或不能足够快地适应)和生态进化动力学(扰动导致关键生活史和相互作用特征的热响应快速演变的情况下)下影响种群的持久性和物种共存。结果将极大地促进对有机体适应快速环境变化的能力的普遍理解。

This project examines the effects of climate change on biodiversity and the spread of exotic species, two of the greatest environmental problems that the nation and the planet face. New mathematical models will be developed to predict how temperature effects on the biochemistry and physiology of individual organisms translate into species interactions that in turn generate the large-scale of patterns of biodiversity that we observe in nature. The resulting intellectual challenge requires integration across several subfields within biology and across biology and mathematics. At the same time, the research has tremendous societal consequences. Results will inform the biological control of pests and pathogens, which, either in isolation or combined with an integrated pest management scheme, reduces pesticide use and minimizes pollution of water sources and associated health risks to humans and livestock. Equally important is the project's contribution to education. It will train students and postdoctoral researchers to develop rigorous, quantitative approaches to address environmental problems and, in so doing, to advance the conceptual boundaries of ecology and evolutionary biology significantly. A sophisticated approach will be used to tackle these intellectual and societal challenges. Four innovative components will be integrated to investigate the mechanisms by which temperature affects both the ecological and evolutionary dynamics of species interactions. First, new theory will build on the first principles of thermodynamics to predict temperature effects on biochemical processes, such as reaction kinetics, that underlie important life history traits. These predictions will then be incorporated into delay-differential population models that realistically capture the key characteristics of ectotherm life cycles. Second, models for both population dynamics and species interactions will be parameterized with experimental data generated by laboratory manipulations. Third, models and their predictions will be validated by comparing outputs to abundance data collected over time in natural populations. The final component will use quantitative genetics methods to determine how temperature effects on ecological traits, measured as reaction norms, influence the evolution of thermal responses. These individual components will be integrated, via eco-evolutionary models, to predict how perturbations to the thermal environment (e.g., climate change) influence population persistence and species coexistence under ecological dynamics alone (the case if species are unable to adapt to changes in the thermal environment or cannot do so fast enough) and under eco-evolutionary dynamics (the case when perturbations lead to rapid evolution of thermal responses of key life history and interaction traits). Results will significantly advance general understanding of organisms' abilities to respond adaptively to rapid environmental change.