A Mechanistic framework for elucidating temperature effects on population and community dynamics

阐明温度对人口和群落动态影响的机制框架

• 批准号: 1457815
• 负责人: Priyanga Amarasekare
• 金额: $ 61.55万
• 依托单位: University of California-Los Angeles
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2015
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2015-03-15 至 2020-02-29
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1457815&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Mechanistic; framework; elucidating; temperature; effects

This project examines the effects of climate change on biodiversity and the spread of exotic species, two of the greatest environmental problems that the nation and the planet face. New mathematical models will be developed to predict how temperature effects on the biochemistry and physiology of individual organisms translate into species interactions that in turn generate the large-scale of patterns of biodiversity that we observe in nature. The resulting intellectual challenge requires integration across several subfields within biology and across biology and mathematics. At the same time, the research has tremendous societal consequences. Results will inform the biological control of pests and pathogens, which, either in isolation or combined with an integrated pest management scheme, reduces pesticide use and minimizes pollution of water sources and associated health risks to humans and livestock. Equally important is the project's contribution to education. It will train students and postdoctoral researchers to develop rigorous, quantitative approaches to address environmental problems and, in so doing, to advance the conceptual boundaries of ecology and evolutionary biology significantly. A sophisticated approach will be used to tackle these intellectual and societal challenges. Four innovative components will be integrated to investigate the mechanisms by which temperature affects both the ecological and evolutionary dynamics of species interactions. First, new theory will build on the first principles of thermodynamics to predict temperature effects on biochemical processes, such as reaction kinetics, that underlie important life history traits. These predictions will then be incorporated into delay-differential population models that realistically capture the key characteristics of ectotherm life cycles. Second, models for both population dynamics and species interactions will be parameterized with experimental data generated by laboratory manipulations. Third, models and their predictions will be validated by comparing outputs to abundance data collected over time in natural populations. The final component will use quantitative genetics methods to determine how temperature effects on ecological traits, measured as reaction norms, influence the evolution of thermal responses. These individual components will be integrated, via eco-evolutionary models, to predict how perturbations to the thermal environment (e.g., climate change) influence population persistence and species coexistence under ecological dynamics alone (the case if species are unable to adapt to changes in the thermal environment or cannot do so fast enough) and under eco-evolutionary dynamics (the case when perturbations lead to rapid evolution of thermal responses of key life history and interaction traits). Results will significantly advance general understanding of organisms' abilities to respond adaptively to rapid environmental change.

该项目研究了气候变化对生物多样性和外来物种传播的影响，这是国家和地球面临的两个最大的环境问题。 将开发新的数学模型来预测温度对个体生物体的生物化学和生理学的影响如何转化为物种相互作用，从而产生我们在自然界中观察到的大规模生物多样性模式。由此产生的智力挑战需要跨生物学内的多个子领域以及跨生物学和数学的整合。同时，这项研究具有巨大的社会影响。 结果将为害虫和病原体的生物控制提供信息，无论是单独的还是与综合害虫管理计划相结合，都可以减少农药的使用，并最大限度地减少水源污染以及对人类和牲畜的相关健康风险。 同样重要的是该项目对教育的贡献。 它将培训学生和博士后研究人员开发严格的定量方法来解决环境问题，并以此显着推进生态学和进化生物学的概念界限。 将采用复杂的方法来应对这些智力和社会挑战。将整合四个创新组件来研究温度影响物种相互作用的生态和进化动力学的机制。 首先，新理论将建立在热力学第一原理的基础上，以预测温度对生化过程的影响，例如构成重要生命史特征的反应动力学。然后，这些预测将被纳入延迟差分种群模型中，该模型能够真实地捕捉变温动物生命周期的关键特征。 其次，种群动态和物种相互作用的模型将利用实验室操作生成的实验数据进行参数化。第三，模型及其预测将通过将输出与自然种群中随时间收集的丰度数据进行比较来验证。最后一部分将使用定量遗传学方法来确定温度对生态特征的影响（作为反应规范测量）如何影响热响应的演变。 这些单独的组成部分将通过生态进化模型进行整合，以预测在单独的生态动力学（物种无法适应热环境变化或不能足够快的情况下）和生态进化动力学（扰动导致关键生命史和相互作用的热响应快速进化的情况下，热环境扰动（例如气候变化）如何影响种群持久性和物种共存 特征）。研究结果将显着促进对生物体适应快速环境变化的能力的普遍理解。