Collaborative Research: Mechanisms supporting persistence of a key plankton species during climate change on the Northwest Atlantic continental shelf

在缅因湾地区，近年来海洋表面的快速变暖引起了研究和资源管理界、渔业和公众对沿海海洋生态系统影响的关注。这个跨学科的合作项目将提高对控制浮游动物丰度的物理和生物过程的理解，浮游动物在东北沿海海洋的食物网中尤为重要。大约一粒米大小的海洋桡足动物Calanus finmarchicus是鲱鱼和其他饲料鱼的主要猎物，也是濒临灭绝的北露脊鲸的主要猎物。这项研究将检验C. finmarchicus从寒冷的加拿大水域运输到缅因湾，再加上在相对寒冷的缅因海岸流中生长和繁殖，是否足以为该地区提供足够的数量，以吸引和滋养依赖于其能量丰富的生命阶段的鱼类、海鸟和哺乳动物，尽管最近海洋变暖。该研究小组将开发一个计算机模型，将对该物种生活史的广泛了解与洋流和温度联系起来。该模型的结果将在两个地点的现场收集中进行测试。这项研究还将为新的综合哨兵监测网络做出贡献，这是一个由联邦和州机构与学术研究机构共同计划的项目，旨在监测东北沿海大陆架未来的生态系统变化。它将在跨学科研究方面培养一名研究生和博士后科学家，并为一名早期职业研究者提供支持。该项目将采用一种过程建模方法，考虑生命史与水深和环流之间的区域和中尺度相互作用，以提高对浮游生物物种分布变化的理解。它将结合二十年来对Calanus finmarchicus生命史（包括滞育）的研究，以及一个高分辨率的区域循环模型，成为一个三维物理生物模型的创新应用。该建模方法通过将拉格朗日视角与局部过程相结合来更好地解决复杂的范围边界问题，代表了物种范围气候预测的进步。它将使用拉格朗日参数，如有限尺度或有限时间李亚普诺夫指数，将粒子轨迹转换为代表平流状态结构的标量场。该模型将由一艘研究船在两个时间序列站收集的生命率和人口统计数据提供信息并进行测试。它将在时间回溯和时间向前模式下用于检验关于缅因湾C. finmarchicus来源和目的地的假设，物候匹配/不匹配的影响，以及探索气候强迫情景对平流路径的影响。

In the Gulf of Maine region, rapid warming of the ocean surface in recent years has raised concern in the research and resource management communities, fishing industry and the general public about effects on the coastal marine ecosystem. This interdisciplinary, collaborative project will improve understanding of the physical and biological processes controlling the abundance of a planktonic animal that is particularly important in the food web of the northeast coastal ocean. About the size of a grain of rice, the marine copepod Calanus finmarchicus is the primary prey for herring and other forage fish, as well as for the endangered northern right whale. This study will examine whether transport of C. finmarchicus into the Gulf of Maine from cold Canadian waters, in combination with growth and reproduction in the relatively cold Maine Coastal Current, is sufficient to supply the region with the numbers needed to attract and nourish the fish, seabirds and mammals that rely on its energy rich life stages, despite recent ocean warming. The research team will develop a computer model that links extensive understanding of the species' life history with ocean currents and temperature. Results from the model will be tested against field collections at two locations. This study will also contribute to the new Integrated Sentinel Monitoring Network, a joint effort planned by federal and state agencies with academic research participation to monitor future ecosystem change on the northeastern coastal shelf. It will train a graduate student and postdoctoral scientist in interdisciplinary research and also provide support for an early-career investigator.The project will take a process modeling approach that takes into account regional and mesoscale interaction between life history and bathymetry and circulation to improve understanding of planktonic species distribution shifts. It will combine two decades of research on Calanus finmarchicus life history, including diapause, with a high resolution regional circulation model into an innovative application of a three dimensional, physical-biological model. The modeling approach represents an advancement of climate forecasts of species ranges by coupling a Lagrangian perspective with local processes to better resolve complex range boundaries. It will use Lagrangian parameters such as finite-scale or finite-time Lyapunov exponents, translating particle trajectories into scalar fields that represent the structure of the advective regime. The model will be informed by and tested with measurements of vital rates and demographic data collected on a research vessel at two time series stations. It will be used in backward-in-time and forward-in-time modes to test hypotheses about sources and destinations of C. finmarchicus in the Gulf of Maine, effects of match/mismatch in phenologies, and exploration effects of climate forced scenarios on advective pathways.