Marine Metapopulation Connectivity: Modeling, Estimation and Demographic Consequences

海洋种群连通性：建模、估计和人口统计后果

• 批准号: 1031256
• 负责人: Rubao Ji
• 金额: $ 99.51万
• 依托单位: Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2010
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2010-08-15 至 2016-07-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1031256&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Marine; Metapopulation; Connectivity; Modeling; Estimation

The goal of this project is to develop a tractable modeling framework for estimating marine metapopulation connectivity and its demographic consequences. This will be achieved using a multifaceted approach which draws upon gravity, demographic, and biological/hydrodynamic coupled models. The objectives are to: (1) Determine reliable predictors of population connectivity from a range of habitat and oceanographic metrics that influence larval dispersal and settlement. The predictive ability of these metrics will be assessed through the development of gravity models which incorporate both natal and settlement site attributes as well as "distance" functions derived from habitat distributions and biological-hydrodynamic coupled models which describe how dispersal probability declines with travel time. (2) Evaluate the robustness of these predictors and different forms of the gravity model at various temporal and spatial scales to examine their suitability for a range of marine metapopulations. (3) Develop matrix metapopulation models to improve understanding of how physical oceanographic processes and dispersal behavior influence the dynamics and spatial connectivity of marine metapopulations. Extensive research of spatial recruitment patterns across a no-take marine reserve network in Kimbe Bay, Papua New Guinea, will provide the empirical data to develop and evaluate a modeling framework for estimating metapopulation connectivity in marine communities where direct estimation of larval dispersal and settlement patterns remains intangible. These efforts will be guided by DNA parentage and trans-generational isotope labeling research of two coral reef fishes with different life histories and habitat usage. These datasets represent the most spatially expansive analysis of recruitment patterns to date and will allow evaluation of modeling approaches across multiple spatial and temporal scales to create a general modeling framework which is both empirically relevant and adaptable to other marine metapopulations with less a priori knowledge of population connectivity.Estimating population connectivity and evaluating its drivers and demographic consequences is vital to comprehending how species will respond to habitat loss, climate change and shifting oceanographic processes, as well as various spatial management efforts. In addition to providing benefits to understanding the drivers of coral reef fish population connectivity in Kimbe Bay and guidance for the management of tropical and temperate reef fish metapopulations, the results of this project will provide a framework for identifying key field measurements to target. This study will develop ways to incorporate emerging developments in DNA parentage and isotope labeling analyses, draw upon current approaches for predicting population connectivity based on habitat distribution and biophysical coupled models, and provide critical and timely demographic information. This project will support a graduate student whose dissertation research will be an integral part of this study. It will also include the participation of several summer undergraduate research fellows. As the project is highly relevant to marine conservation and management, research findings will be disseminated at meetings with international collaborators, presentations at scientific conferences, through graduate courses, and the development of a project website. All investigators have shared their expertise with a variety of agencies responsible for resource management and conservation. By generating practical tools which advance the ability to estimate population connectivity and evaluate metapopulation dynamics, the results of this project will be informative to the scientific community and improve much needed knowledge for the implementation of marine spatial planning.

该项目的目标是开发一个易于处理的建模框架，用于估计海洋集合种群的连通性及其人口影响。这将通过利用重力、人口统计和生物/流体动力学耦合模型的多方面方法来实现。目标是：（1）根据影响幼虫扩散和定居的一系列栖息地和海洋学指标确定种群连通性的可靠预测因子。这些指标的预测能力将通过重力模型的开发进行评估，该模型结合了出生地和定居点属性以及源自栖息地分布的“距离”函数和描述扩散概率如何随着旅行时间而下降的生物-流体动力学耦合模型。 (2) 评估这些预测因子和不同形式的重力模型在不同时间和空间尺度上的稳健性，以检查它们对一系列海洋集合种群的适用性。 (3) 开发矩阵集合种群模型，以提高对物理海洋过程和扩散行为如何影响海洋集合种群动态和空间连通性的理解。对巴布亚新几内亚金贝湾禁捕海洋保护区网络的空间补充模式进行广泛研究，将为开发和评估用于估计海洋群落中集合种群连通性的模型框架提供经验数据，而对幼虫扩散和定居模式的直接估计仍然是无形的。这些工作将以两种具有不同生活史和栖息地用途的珊瑚礁鱼类的 DNA 亲本和跨代同位素标记研究为指导。这些数据集代表了迄今为止对招募模式在空间上最广泛的分析，并将允许对多个时空尺度的建模方法进行评估，以创建一个通用的建模框架，该框架既具有经验相关性，又适用于对种群连通性缺乏先验知识的其他海洋集合种群。估计种群连通性并评估其驱动因素和人口统计后果对于理解物种如何应对栖息地丧失、气候变化和 不断变化的海洋学过程以及各种空间管理工作。除了有助于了解金贝湾珊瑚礁鱼类种群连通性的驱动因素以及热带和温带珊瑚礁鱼类集合种群管理的指导之外，该项目的结果还将提供一个框架，用于确定关键的实地测量目标。这项研究将开发新方法，将 DNA 亲子关系和同位素标记分析的新兴发展纳入其中，利用当前基于栖息地分布和生物物理耦合模型预测种群连通性的方法，并提供关键和及时的人口统计信息。该项目将支持一名研究生，其论文研究将成为本研究的一个组成部分。它还将包括几位暑期本科生研究员的参与。由于该项目与海洋保护和管理高度相关，研究成果将在与国际合作者的会议、科学会议上的演讲、研究生课程和项目网站的开发中传播。所有研究人员都与负责资源管理和保护的各种机构分享了他们的专业知识。通过生成实用工具来提高估计种群连通性和评估集合种群动态的能力，该项目的结果将为科学界提供信息，并提高实施海洋空间规划所需的知识。