Marine Metapopulation Connectivity: Modeling, Estimation and Demographic Consequences

该项目的目标是开发一个易于处理的建模框架，用于估计海洋集合种群的连接性及其人口后果。这将通过利用重力、人口和生物/流体动力学耦合模型的多方面方法来实现。其目标是：（1）从一系列影响幼虫扩散和定居的生境和海洋学指标中确定种群连通性的可靠预测因素。这些指标的预测能力将通过重力模型的发展，其中包括纳塔尔和定居点的属性，以及“距离”的功能来自栖息地分布和生物-水动力耦合模型，描述如何分散概率下降与旅行时间进行评估。(2)评价这些预测因子和不同形式的重力模型在不同时间和空间尺度上的稳健性，以审查其对一系列海洋集合种群的适用性。(3)开发矩阵集合种群模型，以提高物理海洋学过程和扩散行为如何影响海洋集合种群的动态和空间连接的理解。在巴布亚新几内亚的金贝湾，整个不采取海洋保护区网络的空间招聘模式的广泛研究，将提供经验数据，以开发和评估一个建模框架，估计集合种群的连接在海洋社区的幼虫扩散和定居模式的直接估计仍然无形。这些努力将指导DNA亲子关系和跨代同位素标记研究的两个珊瑚礁鱼类具有不同的生活史和栖息地的使用。这些数据集代表了迄今为止最具空间扩展性的补充模式分析，将允许在多个空间和时间尺度上评估建模方法，以创建一个通用建模框架，该框架既与经验相关，又适用于其他海洋集合种群，而对种群连接性的先验知识较少。物种将对生境丧失、气候变化和不断变化的海洋过程以及各种空间管理努力作出反应。除了有助于了解金贝湾珊瑚礁鱼类种群连通性的驱动因素以及为热带和温带珊瑚礁鱼类集合种群的管理提供指导外，该项目的结果还将为确定关键的实地测量目标提供一个框架。这项研究将制定方法，将新兴的发展，在DNA亲子鉴定和同位素标记分析，借鉴目前的方法来预测人口的栖息地分布和生物物理耦合模型的基础上连接，并提供关键和及时的人口信息。本项目将资助一名研究生，其论文研究将是本研究的一个组成部分。它还将包括几个夏季本科研究员的参与。由于该项目与海洋养护和管理高度相关，研究结果将通过研究生课程和开发项目网站，在与国际合作者举行的会议上、在科学会议上的介绍中传播。所有调查人员都与负责资源管理和保护的各种机构分享了他们的专门知识。该项目产生了实用工具，提高了估计种群连通性和评价集合种群动态的能力，其结果将为科学界提供信息，并为实施海洋空间规划提供急需的知识。

The goal of this project is to develop a tractable modeling framework for estimating marine metapopulation connectivity and its demographic consequences. This will be achieved using a multifaceted approach which draws upon gravity, demographic, and biological/hydrodynamic coupled models. The objectives are to: (1) Determine reliable predictors of population connectivity from a range of habitat and oceanographic metrics that influence larval dispersal and settlement. The predictive ability of these metrics will be assessed through the development of gravity models which incorporate both natal and settlement site attributes as well as "distance" functions derived from habitat distributions and biological-hydrodynamic coupled models which describe how dispersal probability declines with travel time. (2) Evaluate the robustness of these predictors and different forms of the gravity model at various temporal and spatial scales to examine their suitability for a range of marine metapopulations. (3) Develop matrix metapopulation models to improve understanding of how physical oceanographic processes and dispersal behavior influence the dynamics and spatial connectivity of marine metapopulations. Extensive research of spatial recruitment patterns across a no-take marine reserve network in Kimbe Bay, Papua New Guinea, will provide the empirical data to develop and evaluate a modeling framework for estimating metapopulation connectivity in marine communities where direct estimation of larval dispersal and settlement patterns remains intangible. These efforts will be guided by DNA parentage and trans-generational isotope labeling research of two coral reef fishes with different life histories and habitat usage. These datasets represent the most spatially expansive analysis of recruitment patterns to date and will allow evaluation of modeling approaches across multiple spatial and temporal scales to create a general modeling framework which is both empirically relevant and adaptable to other marine metapopulations with less a priori knowledge of population connectivity.Estimating population connectivity and evaluating its drivers and demographic consequences is vital to comprehending how species will respond to habitat loss, climate change and shifting oceanographic processes, as well as various spatial management efforts. In addition to providing benefits to understanding the drivers of coral reef fish population connectivity in Kimbe Bay and guidance for the management of tropical and temperate reef fish metapopulations, the results of this project will provide a framework for identifying key field measurements to target. This study will develop ways to incorporate emerging developments in DNA parentage and isotope labeling analyses, draw upon current approaches for predicting population connectivity based on habitat distribution and biophysical coupled models, and provide critical and timely demographic information. This project will support a graduate student whose dissertation research will be an integral part of this study. It will also include the participation of several summer undergraduate research fellows. As the project is highly relevant to marine conservation and management, research findings will be disseminated at meetings with international collaborators, presentations at scientific conferences, through graduate courses, and the development of a project website. All investigators have shared their expertise with a variety of agencies responsible for resource management and conservation. By generating practical tools which advance the ability to estimate population connectivity and evaluate metapopulation dynamics, the results of this project will be informative to the scientific community and improve much needed knowledge for the implementation of marine spatial planning.