Marine Metapopulation Connectivity: Modeling, Estimation and Demographic Consequences

海洋种群连通性：建模、估计和人口统计后果

• 批准号: 1031256
• 负责人: Rubao Ji
• 金额: $ 99.51万
• 依托单位: Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2010
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2010-08-15 至 2016-07-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1031256&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Marine; Metapopulation; Connectivity; Modeling; Estimation

The goal of this project is to develop a tractable modeling framework for estimating marine metapopulation connectivity and its demographic consequences. This will be achieved using a multifaceted approach which draws upon gravity, demographic, and biological/hydrodynamic coupled models. The objectives are to: (1) Determine reliable predictors of population connectivity from a range of habitat and oceanographic metrics that influence larval dispersal and settlement. The predictive ability of these metrics will be assessed through the development of gravity models which incorporate both natal and settlement site attributes as well as "distance" functions derived from habitat distributions and biological-hydrodynamic coupled models which describe how dispersal probability declines with travel time. (2) Evaluate the robustness of these predictors and different forms of the gravity model at various temporal and spatial scales to examine their suitability for a range of marine metapopulations. (3) Develop matrix metapopulation models to improve understanding of how physical oceanographic processes and dispersal behavior influence the dynamics and spatial connectivity of marine metapopulations. Extensive research of spatial recruitment patterns across a no-take marine reserve network in Kimbe Bay, Papua New Guinea, will provide the empirical data to develop and evaluate a modeling framework for estimating metapopulation connectivity in marine communities where direct estimation of larval dispersal and settlement patterns remains intangible. These efforts will be guided by DNA parentage and trans-generational isotope labeling research of two coral reef fishes with different life histories and habitat usage. These datasets represent the most spatially expansive analysis of recruitment patterns to date and will allow evaluation of modeling approaches across multiple spatial and temporal scales to create a general modeling framework which is both empirically relevant and adaptable to other marine metapopulations with less a priori knowledge of population connectivity.Estimating population connectivity and evaluating its drivers and demographic consequences is vital to comprehending how species will respond to habitat loss, climate change and shifting oceanographic processes, as well as various spatial management efforts. In addition to providing benefits to understanding the drivers of coral reef fish population connectivity in Kimbe Bay and guidance for the management of tropical and temperate reef fish metapopulations, the results of this project will provide a framework for identifying key field measurements to target. This study will develop ways to incorporate emerging developments in DNA parentage and isotope labeling analyses, draw upon current approaches for predicting population connectivity based on habitat distribution and biophysical coupled models, and provide critical and timely demographic information. This project will support a graduate student whose dissertation research will be an integral part of this study. It will also include the participation of several summer undergraduate research fellows. As the project is highly relevant to marine conservation and management, research findings will be disseminated at meetings with international collaborators, presentations at scientific conferences, through graduate courses, and the development of a project website. All investigators have shared their expertise with a variety of agencies responsible for resource management and conservation. By generating practical tools which advance the ability to estimate population connectivity and evaluate metapopulation dynamics, the results of this project will be informative to the scientific community and improve much needed knowledge for the implementation of marine spatial planning.

该项目的目的是开发一个可访问的建模框架，以估计海洋跨种群连接及其人口统计学后果。这将使用多方面的方法来实现，该方法通过重力，人口统计学和生物学/流体动力耦合模型来实现。目标是：（1）确定人口连通性的可靠预测因素，这些栖息地和海洋学指标影响幼虫的分散和沉降。这些指标的预测能力将通过开发重力模型来评估，重力模型既包含了生境分布和生物流动力耦合模型，又包含了定位和沉降位点属性以及“距离”函数，这些模型描述了分散概率如何随行时间下降。 （2）评估这些预测因子和不同形式的重力模型在各种时间和空间尺度上的鲁棒性，以检查它们对一系列海洋载体的适用性。 （3）开发矩阵化的模型，以提高对物理海洋学过程和分散行为如何影响海洋载体的动态和空间连通性的理解。在巴布亚新几内亚金贝湾的无捕捞海军储备网络上的空间招聘模式的广泛研究将提供经验数据，以开发和评估一个建模框架，以估算海洋社区中的跨群体连通性，其中直接估计幼虫分散和沉降模式的直接估计。这些努力将以DNA亲子症和跨代同位素标记为两种具有不同生活史和栖息地使用不同的珊瑚礁鱼类的研究的指导。这些数据集代表了迄今为止对招聘模式的最广泛分析，并将允许评估多个空间和时间尺度上的建模方法，以创建一个一般的建模框架，以实证与其他海洋规模相关，并且可以适应其他海洋范围，并适应其他较少的人口连接性，并估算其群体连接和评估范围的范围，并评估其范围的范围，即使范围的损失是VISCHAPERIATION的范围。转移海洋学过程以及各种空间管理工作。除了为理解金贝湾珊瑚礁鱼类种群连通性的驱动因素以及对热带和温带珊瑚礁鱼类种群管理的指导外，该项目的结果还将为识别目标的关键现场测量提供框架。这项研究将开发方式，将新兴发展的发展纳入DNA亲属和同位素标记分析中，借鉴基于栖息地分布和生物物理耦合模型的当前预测种群连通性的方法，并提供关键和及时的人口统计信息。该项目将支持一位研究生，其论文研究将是本研究的组成部分。它还将包括几个夏季本科研究研究员的参与。由于该项目与海洋保护和管理高度相关，因此研究结果将在与国际合作者的会议，科学会议，研究生课程以及项目网站的开发中传播。所有研究人员都与负责资源管理和保护的各种机构分享了他们的专业知识。通过生成实用工具，这些工具可以提高估计人口连通性并评估跨种群动态的能力，该项目的结果将为科学界提供信息，并提高了急需的知识来实施海洋空间计划。