Wage Dynamics

该研究项目开发并分析了失业如何影响终身收入的新模型。 该项目计划测试对以下广泛观察到的事实的新解释。 首先，对于大多数工人来说，工资随着时间的推移而增长，无论是以劳动力的总时间还是当前工作的时间来衡量。 其次，在职业生涯的某个阶段失业的工人往往发现，他们后来的就业收入落后于其他工人的收入。 PI开发了一个经济模型，其中公司的生产力和提供给工人的在职培训各不相同。 生产性企业的工人更有可能避免失业，并获得更多技能，从而增加他们未来的工资。 研究小组将使用一个创新的数据集来测试该模型。 该项目促进了宏观经济学和劳动经济学的科学发展。 因为这项研究可能会导致对美国工人失业的长期成本的新的理解，它将有助于更好的政策，以促进国家的繁荣。这项工作探讨了人力资本积累和劳动力市场摩擦之间的相互作用，作为工资动态的一阶决定因素。 虽然这些经常被视为对劳动力市场结果的相互竞争的解释，但这里的核心思想是，它们共同作用，这两种力量可以联合收割机导致工资对冲击的反应持续存在。 由于企业异质性的存在，摩擦可能会影响人力资本积累的速度，不同的企业提供不同水平的培训。 因此，摩擦不仅会导致当前技能回报的分散，而且本身也是未来技能成果分散的决定因素。 估算方法基于模拟方法，并将使用微观面板数据。

This research project develops and analyzes a new model of how unemployment can affect lifelong earnings. The project plans to test a new explanation for the following widely observed facts. First, for most workers, wages grow over time, whether that is measured as total time in the workforce or time in the current job. Second, workers who have been unemployed at some point in their work careers often find that their later earnings from employment lag behind the earnings of other workers. The PI has developed an economic model where firms vary in productivity and the on-the-job training provided to workers. Workers at productive firms are more likely to avoid unemployment and also gain more skills, which increases their future wages. The research team will test the model using an innovative data set. The project advances science in macroeconomics and labor economics. Because the research may lead to new understanding about the long-run costs of unemployment to American workers, it will contribute to better policies for promoting national prosperity.The work explores the interaction between human capital accumulation and labor market frictions as first order determinants of wage dynamics. While these are frequently viewed as competing explanations of labor market outcomes, the core idea here is that they work together and the two forces can combine to cause persistence in the response of wages to shocks. Through the presence of firm heterogeneity, frictions can impact the rate of human capital accumulation, with different firms providing different levels of training. As such, frictions do not only introduce dispersion in the return to current skills but are also themselves determinants of dispersion in future skill outcomes. The estimation methodology is based on simulation-based methods and will use micro panel data.