RAPID: Measuring the Intent of Leaders through Censorship Behavior

了解外国政府及其领导人的意图对于大量的学术研究和公共政策分析至关重要。然而，衡量意图通常只有在事后才有可能，通过从政府行动中推断出来，或者在公职人员离任后采访他们。PIS开发和扩展了一种计算机辅助文本分析方法，以在政府行动发生之前对其进行预测，从而以一种可以严格验证的方式提供对领导人意图的更直接衡量。这些预测的主要投入将是政府在互联网上可衡量的行动。为了实现这一目标，私人投资机构利用他们从先前研究中建立的基础设施，并将其扩展用于这一目的。从技术上了解外国政府及其领导人的意图对于大量的学术研究和公共政策分析至关重要。然而，衡量意图通常只有在事后才有可能，通过从政府行动中推断出来，或者在公职人员离任后采访他们。绩效指标开发和扩展了在政府行动发生之前预测政府行动的方法，从而以一种可以被严格验证的方式提供了对领导人意图的更直接的衡量。在方法上，个人信息机构设计了适用于其他语言的计算机辅助文本分析方法，以分析经审查和未经审查的社交媒体帖子的内容。这项研究和由此产生的数据还可能揭示威权政权在重大领导层换届后为巩固权力而采取的具体战略。

GeneralUnderstanding the intent of foreign governments and their leaders is essential to a vast array of scholarly research and public policy analysis. Yet, measuring intent is usually only possible after the fact, by inferring it from government action or interviewing public officials after they leave office. The PIs develop and extend a computer-assisted text analysis method to predict government actions before they occur, thus offering a more direct measure of a leader's intent in a way that can be rigorously validated. The main input to these predictions will be measurable government action on the Internet. To accomplish this, the PIs leverage the infrastructure they have built from prior research and extend it for this purpose.Technical Understanding the intent of foreign governments and their leaders is essential to a vast array of scholarly research and public policy analysis. Yet, measuring intent is usually only possible after the fact, by inferring it from government action or interviewing public officials after they leave office. The PIs develop and extend methods to predict government actions before they occur, thus offering a more direct measure of a leader's intent in a way that can be rigorously validated. Methodologically, the PIs design computer-assisted methods of text analysis adapted to other languages to analyze the content of censored and uncensored social media posts. The research and resulting data may also reveal specific strategies employed by authoritarian regimes to consolidate power after major leadership transitions.