RAPID: Measuring the Intent of Leaders through Censorship Behavior

RAPID：通过审查行为衡量领导者的意图

• 批准号: 1500086
• 负责人: Gary King
• 金额: $ 20万
• 依托单位: Harvard University
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2015
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2015-03-01 至 2016-02-29
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1500086&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: RAPID; Measuring; Intent; Leaders; through

GeneralUnderstanding the intent of foreign governments and their leaders is essential to a vast array of scholarly research and public policy analysis. Yet, measuring intent is usually only possible after the fact, by inferring it from government action or interviewing public officials after they leave office. The PIs develop and extend a computer-assisted text analysis method to predict government actions before they occur, thus offering a more direct measure of a leader's intent in a way that can be rigorously validated. The main input to these predictions will be measurable government action on the Internet. To accomplish this, the PIs leverage the infrastructure they have built from prior research and extend it for this purpose.Technical Understanding the intent of foreign governments and their leaders is essential to a vast array of scholarly research and public policy analysis. Yet, measuring intent is usually only possible after the fact, by inferring it from government action or interviewing public officials after they leave office. The PIs develop and extend methods to predict government actions before they occur, thus offering a more direct measure of a leader's intent in a way that can be rigorously validated. Methodologically, the PIs design computer-assisted methods of text analysis adapted to other languages to analyze the content of censored and uncensored social media posts. The research and resulting data may also reveal specific strategies employed by authoritarian regimes to consolidate power after major leadership transitions.

了解外国政府及其领导人的意图对大量的学术研究和公共政策分析至关重要。然而，衡量意图通常只有在事后才有可能，通过从政府行动中推断或在公职人员离职后采访他们。PI开发并扩展了一种计算机辅助文本分析方法，以在政府行为发生之前预测它们，从而以一种可以严格验证的方式提供对领导者意图的更直接测量。 这些预测的主要投入将是可衡量的政府在互联网上的行动。为了实现这一目标，PI利用他们从先前的研究中建立的基础设施，并为此目的进行扩展。技术了解外国政府及其领导人的意图对于大量的学术研究和公共政策分析至关重要。然而，衡量意图通常只有在事后才有可能，通过从政府行动中推断或在公职人员离职后采访他们。PI开发和扩展了在政府行为发生之前预测政府行为的方法，从而以一种可以严格验证的方式提供了对领导者意图的更直接的衡量。在方法上，PI设计了适用于其他语言的计算机辅助文本分析方法，以分析审查和未经审查的社交媒体帖子的内容。研究和由此产生的数据还可能揭示专制政权在重大领导层更迭后巩固权力的具体战略。