RAPID: Measuring the Intent of Leaders through Censorship Behavior

概述了解外国政府及其领导人的意图对于大量学术研究和公共政策分析至关重要。然而，衡量意图通常只能在事后进行，通过从政府行为中推断或在公职人员离任后对其进行采访来推断。 PI 开发并扩展了计算机辅助文本分析方法，以在政府行为发生之前对其进行预测，从而以可严格验证的方式更直接地衡量领导者的意图。 这些预测的主要输入将是互联网上可衡量的政府行动。为了实现这一目标，PI 利用他们从先前的研究中建立的基础设施，并将其扩展用于此目的。技术理解外国政府及其领导人的意图对于大量的学术研究和公共政策分析至关重要。然而，衡量意图通常只能在事后进行，通过从政府行为中推断或在公职人员离任后对其进行采访来推断。 PI 开发并扩展了在政府行为发生之前进行预测的方法，从而以可严格验证的方式更直接地衡量领导者的意图。从方法上讲，PI 设计了适用于其他语言的计算机辅助文本分析方法，以分析经过审查和未经审查的社交媒体帖子的内容。研究和由此产生的数据还可能揭示威权政权在重大领导层换届后巩固权力所采用的具体策略。

GeneralUnderstanding the intent of foreign governments and their leaders is essential to a vast array of scholarly research and public policy analysis. Yet, measuring intent is usually only possible after the fact, by inferring it from government action or interviewing public officials after they leave office. The PIs develop and extend a computer-assisted text analysis method to predict government actions before they occur, thus offering a more direct measure of a leader's intent in a way that can be rigorously validated. The main input to these predictions will be measurable government action on the Internet. To accomplish this, the PIs leverage the infrastructure they have built from prior research and extend it for this purpose.Technical Understanding the intent of foreign governments and their leaders is essential to a vast array of scholarly research and public policy analysis. Yet, measuring intent is usually only possible after the fact, by inferring it from government action or interviewing public officials after they leave office. The PIs develop and extend methods to predict government actions before they occur, thus offering a more direct measure of a leader's intent in a way that can be rigorously validated. Methodologically, the PIs design computer-assisted methods of text analysis adapted to other languages to analyze the content of censored and uncensored social media posts. The research and resulting data may also reveal specific strategies employed by authoritarian regimes to consolidate power after major leadership transitions.