EPCN: Quantifying the Resilience of Power Systems to Natural Disasters

电力系统不太可能不受飓风、地震、冰暴或洪水等自然灾害的影响。随后可能发生持续数天甚至数周的停电，这不仅会影响受影响社区的福祉和经济，而且还可能威胁到它们的结构。最近发生的超级风暴桑迪和飓风卡特里娜等事件突显了提高电网弹性的必要性。一些公用事业公司，如联合爱迪生公司，已经开始了大规模的投资计划，旨在加强他们的网络部分。这些公司正在实施的设计更改是基于对过去灾难中哪些部件发生故障的观察。虽然这些措施无疑是有用的，但它们往往侧重于个别组成部分的复原力，但不一定是提高系统复原力的最有效方式。因此，大规模的基础设施投资可能不会针对最有效的解决方案。为了克服这一问题，所有可能受到自然灾害影响的地区的电力公用事业和政府机构都需要一种严格的方法来评估各种投资的相对价值。这项建议描述了如何量化电力系统的整体弹性。它还概述了一种技术，用以评估旨在强化各种部件或促进系统修理和恢复的措施的相对价值。量化电力系统的弹性被证明需要解决一个非常复杂的优化问题。需要新的优化算法来解决这一问题，从而回答该项目解决的紧迫的实际问题。该项目将在两个方向取得进展：1.建立自然灾害后电力系统修复和恢复过程的可量化模型。这些模型将支持优化旨在提高电力系统复原力的投资。电力系统抗自然灾害能力的量化涉及到一类新型的多阶段优化问题的求解，其中代价函数取决于到达图中每个节点所需的累积时间。如提案所示，这可能会导致违反直觉的最佳恢复计划。例如，首先修复连接到用户数量最多的节点的分支可能不是最佳策略。一种量化电力系统对自然灾害的恢复能力的技术的可用性，将帮助电力公司决定如何最好地使用提高这种恢复能力所需的巨额资金。这对政府和监管机构在考虑应该在电力系统弹性上花费多少资金而不是其他优先事项时也是有用的。应急管理机构还可以利用这些模型和工具来研究电网和其他关键基础设施之间的相互依存关系，以便更好地协调灾后恢复进程。这一项目的最终受益者将是受自然灾害影响的人民和社区，因为其结果应有助于减少人们的痛苦和他们必然遭受的经济困难。由于这一研究课题容易激发年轻人的想象力，调查人员将在其中一所参与机构为代表不足的少数族裔学生组织相关的本科研究项目。他们还将在为高中生和社区大学学生举办的能源相关技术研讨会上讨论弹性问题。

Power systems are not likely to remain unscathed by natural disasters such as hurricanes, earthquakes, ice storms or floods. Power outages lasting days or even weeks might ensue and will affect not only the well-being and the economy of the affected communities but could also threaten their very fabric. Recent events, such as Super-storm Sandy and hurricane Katrina, have highlighted the need to improve the resilience of the electricity grid. Some utility companies, such as Consolidated Edison, have embarked on massive investment programs aimed at hardening parts of their network. The design changes that these companies are implementing are based on observations of which components failed during past disasters. While such measures will undoubtedly be useful, they tend to focus on the resilience of individual components but do not necessarily represent the most effective way to enhance the resilience of the system. Large infrastructure investments may therefore not be targeted at the most effective solutions. To overcome this problem, electric utilities and government agencies in all areas that could be affected by a natural disaster need a rigorous method for assessing the relative value of various investments. This proposal describes how the overall resilience of a power system could be quantified. It also outlines a technique to assess the relative value of measures aimed at hardening various components or facilitating the repair and restoration of the system. Quantifying the resilience of a power system turns out to require the solution of a very complex optimization problem. New optimization algorithms will be needed to solve this problem and hence to answer the pressing practical issue that this project addresses.This project will produce advances in two directions:1. The development of quantifiable models of the power system repair and restoration process following a natural disaster. These models will support the optimization of investments aimed at improving the resilience of the power system.2. The quantification of the resilience of a power system to natural disasters involves the solution of a new type of multistage optimization problem where the cost function depends on the cumulative time required to reach each node in a graph. As illustrated in the proposal, this can lead to counterintuitive optimal recovery schedules. For example repairing first the branches connecting to nodes with the largest number of consumers may not constitute the optimal strategy.The availability of a technique to quantify the resilience of a power system to natural disasters will help electric utilities decide how best to direct the vast sums of money required to improve this resilience. It will also be useful to governments and regulatory agencies when they consider how much money should be spent on power system resilience as opposed to other priorities. Emergency management agencies could also use these models and tools to study the interdependencies between the electricity grid and other critical infrastructures, with the aim of better coordinating the post-disaster recovery process. The ultimate beneficiaries of this project will be the people and communities affected by a natural disaster because its results should help reduce the human suffering and the economic hardships that they are bound to suffer. Since this research topic is apt to capture the imagination of young people, the investigators will organize related undergraduate research projects for students from underrepresented minorities at one of the participating institutions. They will also discuss resilience issues at a symposium on energy-related technologies for high school and community college students.