Hazards SEES: Persistent volcanic crises resilience in the face of prolonged and uncertain risk

与许多地质灾害不同，火山爆发几乎是独一无二的，因为它在爆发前有几周或几个月的明显前兆，这为成功地进行早期干预以降低风险提供了可能。因此，火山喷发的影响在原则上应该是所有重大自然灾害中最容易减轻的。然而，火山灾害的影响往往与火山爆发的规模不成比例。例如，Eyjafjallajökull（冰岛）由于在2010年4月和5月期间取消了180 000架次航班，造成50亿美元的费用。火山危机带来了一系列科学、工程、数学和社会问题，以及非常高的不确定性。火山动荡的长期性、火山爆发的多重灾害特征、数据和模型的主要不确定性以及决策者和其他利益相关者的不同反应，使火山灾害在自然灾害中具有独特的复杂性。该项目正在发展对火山喷发记录、火山管道以及基拉韦厄（夏威夷）和长谷（加利福尼亚）火山威胁的社会反应和恢复力的新认识。基拉韦厄火山的熔岩目前威胁着一个拥有950名居民的小镇，并可能很快将一个10,500人的大型社区隔离开来。频繁的地震活动（包括最近的2014年9月）和长谷的气体排放表明地壳中可能有岩浆运动。那里的火山爆发可能是高度爆炸性的，火山烟羽高度超过20公里，火山碎屑密度流具有高度破坏性。基拉韦厄火山和长谷火山代表了与美国有关的一系列火山危机。这两个地区的长期动荡（爆发与否）导致了不同的社会反应，包括自满和否认。该项目正在开发新的和增强的喷发过程计算模型，以提供预测的地球物理模拟。我们通过创新的层次贝叶斯统计模型整合数据和模型，以充分纳入和量化不确定性。我们的社会科学研究更详细地描述了利益相关者对两种类型的动乱和火山系统的理解和准备，以及影响他们如何使用科学信息的心理模型。根据我们的社会科学成果，我们还在开发和测试向利益相关者描述危险概率和不确定性的不同方法的有效性。该项目的结果将广泛地转移到其他火山灾害中，并将更普遍地告知社会对其他长时间自然灾害的恢复能力。

Unlike many geological hazards, volcanic eruptions are almost unique in being preceded by weeks or months of clear precursors, which offer the potential for successful early interventions to reduce risk. The impacts of eruptions should therefore be, in principle, amongst the easiest to mitigate of all the great natural hazards. Nevertheless, impacts of volcanic disasters are often out of proportion to the magnitude of the eruptions. Eyjafjallajökull (Iceland), for example, resulted in a cost of $5 billion due to the cancelation of 180,000 aircraft flights during April and May 2010. Volcanic crises carry a host of scientific, engineering, mathematical, and societal problems, along with very high levels of uncertainty. The long-term nature of volcanic unrest, the multi-hazard character of eruptions, major uncertainty in data and models, and the diverse responses of decision makers and other stakeholders, make volcanic hazards uniquely complex amongst natural disasters. This project is developing new understanding of the eruptive record, volcanic plumbing, and the social response and resilience to volcanic threats at Kilauea (Hawaii) and Long Valley (California). Lava from Kilauea currently threatens a town of 950 residents and may soon isolate a large community of 10,500. Heightened seismic activity (including as recent as September 2014) and gas discharges at Long Valley suggest possible magma movement in the crust. Eruptions there can be highly explosive, with tephra plumes greater than 20 km high, and highly destructive pyroclastic density currents. Kilauea and Long Valley represent the spectrum of volcanic crises that pertain to the United States. The prolonged nature of unrest (eruptive or not) in both locations has resulted in mixed social responses, including complacency and denial. This project is developing new and enhanced computational models of eruptive processes to provide predictive geophysical simulations. We are integrating data and models through innovative hierarchical Bayesian statistical modeling in order to fully incorporate and quantify uncertainties. Our social science research is characterizing in greater detail stakeholders' understanding of, and preparedness for, the two types of unrest and volcanic systems, and the mental models that affect how they use scientific information. We are also developing and testing for effectiveness different methods of portraying hazard probabilities and uncertainties to stakeholders, as informed by our social science results. Results from this project will be broadly transferable to other volcanic hazards and will, more generally, inform societal resilience to other natural hazards with long lead times.