Improving Understanding of Volcanic Eruptions

该奖项将为国家研究理事会（NRC）提供资金，以进行基础研究，以提高对火山爆发的启动，维持和结束过程以及这些过程与观测到的火山爆发前兆之间的关系的理解。大规模火山爆发可能对基础设施、农业、空气和水质、呼吸系统健康、全球航空旅行和经济产生灾难性影响。成功的预测，如1991年的火山爆发的预测。在菲律宾皮纳图博，可以挽救生命，减少这种事件的不利影响。利用新的跨学科研究方法和创新的传感系统，可以区分即将爆发的火山和单纯的火山动荡，从而能够向受影响的人口发出更可靠的警报。此外，这项研究可以促进不同学科的研究人员，仪器开发人员和负责监测火山的政府管理人员之间的合作，警告公众，或在地方，地区和国家层面减轻火山灾害。这种合作既可以为未来的火山学研究提供信息，也可以加强火山监测和预警工作，因为火山爆发之前通常会有火山震颤、地震、气体排放或地表变形等前兆，因此已经成功地预测了一些监测良好的火山的爆发。然而，尽管我们对可能的火山爆发提供有用预警的能力有所提高，但火山系统的许多方面尚未完全了解，火山爆发无法可靠地预测。推进该领域需要多个科学学科的贡献，包括火山学，地球动力学，大地测量学，地震学，气象学，水文学和遥感。这项研究将汇集来自这些学科的专家，以确定更好地了解火山行为及其未来活动所需的优先研究，建模和观察。这些专家的参与以及研究的发现和结论可以促进对火山爆发的理解，并为美国的研究议程提供信息。 特别是，核管制委员会将召集一个由火山学领域12名个人组成的委员会，汇编关于以下方面的资料：目前对岩浆储存、上升和喷发的科学认识;关于火山过程和可能导致更好预报的前兆的新研究;新的观测或仪器部署战略;以及研究和观测优先事项，以提高对喷发的认识，并为监测和预警提供信息。委员会将举行3次会议和一次讲习班，以收集信息，审议并编写关于上述任务的共识报告。出版的报告将免费分享，并分发给研究和技术界以及联邦、州和地方各级感兴趣的政策制定者和决策者。

This award will provide the funds to the National Research Council (NRC) to conduct a study of the fundamental research needed to improve understanding of the processes that initiate, sustain, and end volcanic eruptions and the relationships between those processes and observed eruption precursors. Large volcanic eruptions can have disastrous impacts on infrastructure, agriculture, air and water quality, respiratory health, global air travel, and the economy. Successful forecasts, such as the forecast of 1991 eruption of Mt. Pinatubo in the Philippines, can save lives and lessen the adverse impacts of such events. Use of the new interdisciplinary research approaches and innovative sensing systems could make it possible to distinguish an impending eruption from mere volcanic unrest, enabling more reliable warnings to affected populations. In addition, this study could foster collaboration among researchers in different disciplines, instrument developers, and government managers responsible for monitoring volcanoes, warning the public, or mitigating volcanic hazards at local, regional, and national levels. Such collaboration could both inform future volcanology research and enhance volcano monitoring and warning efforts.Because eruptions are commonly preceded by precursors such as volcanic tremor, earthquakes, gas discharges, or surface deformation, eruptions at some well-monitored volcanoes have been forecast successfully. However, although our capability to provide useful warnings of possible eruptions has improved, many aspects of volcanic systems are not fully understood, and volcanic eruptions cannot be reliably predicted. Advancing the field requires contributions from multiple scientific disciplines, including volcanology, geodynamics, geodesy, seismology, meteorology, hydrology, and remote sensing. This study would bring together experts from these disciplines to identify priority research, modeling, and observations needed to better understand the behavior of volcanoes and their future activity. The engagement of these experts and the findings and conclusions from the study could advance understanding of volcanic eruptions and inform the U.S. research agenda. In particular, the NRC will convene a committee of 12 individuals in the field of volcanology to compile information on the current scientific understanding of magma storage, ascent, and eruption; new research on volcanic processes and precursors that could lead to better forecasts; new observations or instrument deployment strategies; and research and observation priorities to improve understanding of eruptions and to inform monitoring and early warning. The committee would hold 3 meetings and a workshop to gather information, deliberate, and prepare a consensus report on the tasks listed above. The published report would be shared freely and disseminated to the research and technical community as well as to interested policy and decision makers at federal, state, and local levels.