Improving Understanding of Volcanic Eruptions

增进对火山喷发的了解

• 批准号: 1547098
• 负责人: Anne Linn
• 金额: $ 15万
• 依托单位: National Academy of Sciences
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2015
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2015-08-01 至 2017-07-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1547098&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Improving; Understanding; Volcanic; Eruptions

This award will provide the funds to the National Research Council (NRC) to conduct a study of the fundamental research needed to improve understanding of the processes that initiate, sustain, and end volcanic eruptions and the relationships between those processes and observed eruption precursors. Large volcanic eruptions can have disastrous impacts on infrastructure, agriculture, air and water quality, respiratory health, global air travel, and the economy. Successful forecasts, such as the forecast of 1991 eruption of Mt. Pinatubo in the Philippines, can save lives and lessen the adverse impacts of such events. Use of the new interdisciplinary research approaches and innovative sensing systems could make it possible to distinguish an impending eruption from mere volcanic unrest, enabling more reliable warnings to affected populations. In addition, this study could foster collaboration among researchers in different disciplines, instrument developers, and government managers responsible for monitoring volcanoes, warning the public, or mitigating volcanic hazards at local, regional, and national levels. Such collaboration could both inform future volcanology research and enhance volcano monitoring and warning efforts.Because eruptions are commonly preceded by precursors such as volcanic tremor, earthquakes, gas discharges, or surface deformation, eruptions at some well-monitored volcanoes have been forecast successfully. However, although our capability to provide useful warnings of possible eruptions has improved, many aspects of volcanic systems are not fully understood, and volcanic eruptions cannot be reliably predicted. Advancing the field requires contributions from multiple scientific disciplines, including volcanology, geodynamics, geodesy, seismology, meteorology, hydrology, and remote sensing. This study would bring together experts from these disciplines to identify priority research, modeling, and observations needed to better understand the behavior of volcanoes and their future activity. The engagement of these experts and the findings and conclusions from the study could advance understanding of volcanic eruptions and inform the U.S. research agenda. In particular, the NRC will convene a committee of 12 individuals in the field of volcanology to compile information on the current scientific understanding of magma storage, ascent, and eruption; new research on volcanic processes and precursors that could lead to better forecasts; new observations or instrument deployment strategies; and research and observation priorities to improve understanding of eruptions and to inform monitoring and early warning. The committee would hold 3 meetings and a workshop to gather information, deliberate, and prepare a consensus report on the tasks listed above. The published report would be shared freely and disseminated to the research and technical community as well as to interested policy and decision makers at federal, state, and local levels.

这项奖励将为国家研究理事会(NRC)提供资金，用于开展一项基础研究，以提高对火山喷发开始、持续和结束的过程以及这些过程与观测到的喷发前兆之间的关系的了解。大规模火山喷发可能对基础设施、农业、空气和水质量、呼吸健康、全球航空旅行和经济产生灾难性影响。成功的预测，如1991年山体喷发的预测。在菲律宾的皮纳图博，可以拯救生命，减轻此类事件的不利影响。使用新的跨学科研究方法和创新的传感系统可以区分即将爆发的火山喷发和纯粹的火山骚乱，从而能够向受影响的人口发出更可靠的警告。此外，这项研究可以促进不同学科的研究人员、仪器开发商和负责监测火山、向公众发出警告或在地方、地区和国家层面减轻火山灾害的政府管理人员之间的合作。这种合作既可以为未来的火山学研究提供信息，也可以加强火山监测和预警工作。由于火山喷发通常是在火山震动、地震、气体排放或地表变形等前兆之前发生的，因此已经成功地预测了一些监测良好的火山喷发。然而，尽管我们提供可能喷发的有用警告的能力有所提高，但对火山系统的许多方面还没有完全了解，也无法可靠地预测火山喷发。推进这一领域需要多个科学学科的贡献，包括火山学、地球动力学、大地测量学、地震学、气象学、水文学和遥感。这项研究将汇集这些学科的专家，以确定更好地了解火山行为及其未来活动所需的优先研究、建模和观测。这些专家的参与以及这项研究的发现和结论可以促进对火山喷发的了解，并为美国的研究议程提供信息。特别是，NRC将召集一个火山学领域的12人委员会，以汇编关于以下方面的信息：目前对岩浆储存、上升和喷发的科学理解；关于火山过程和前兆的新研究，可导致更好的预报；新的观测或仪器部署战略；以及研究和观测优先事项，以增进对喷发的了解，并为监测和预警提供信息。委员会将举行3次会议和一次研讨会，以收集信息、审议和编写关于上述任务的协商一致报告。出版的报告将免费分享并分发给研究和技术界以及联邦、州和地方各级感兴趣的政策和决策者。