EAGER: Renewables: Collaborative Research: Foundations of Prosumer-Centric Grid Energy Management

该项目考虑了产消者与电网的互动使用前景理论，一个开创性的贡献行为经济学，赢得了诺贝尔奖(?产消者？指同时充当电力生产者和销售者角色的电力消费者)。前景理论提供了一种理解人的方法。根据他们的实际行为和他们对潜在收益和损失的评估以及评估的风险水平来做出经济选择。因此，前景理论可以帮助人们理解经济选择的实际动态，而不必假设使用博弈论预测的结果实际上一定会实现。该项目表明，实现可持续的智能电网需要今天就进行转型。美国电网转变为以消费者为中心的电网，其中很大一部分能源来自可再生能源和其他消费者拥有的设备。这一愿景的成功取决于大规模的、积极的生产消费者参与能源管理。然而，仅仅因为这种参与可以为参与者带来巨大的利益，就不能假设产消者实际上会完全参与智能电网。经验数据表明，尽管智能电网的前景令人振奋，但由于用户参与度不高，它的广泛采用受到了阻碍。本项目以新兴电网场景为动力，采用前景理论的数学框架研究智能电网能源管理。该项目的成果将推动多个学科的发展，包括电力系统、博弈论、经济学和认知心理学。这些行为实验将开创用户参与能源管理的新现实生活模式。这项跨学科研究将为加速实现以产消为中心的可持续智能电网愿景提供必要的数学基础。开发的技术将提供对产消者在智能电网中的作用的基本理解。它还可以导致新的经济和监管网格协议和政策。一个软件工具将创造一个参与智能电网研究和教育的新平台。智能电网设计和认知心理学的独特结合将通过新的和现有的课程以及参与行为实验，为工程和心理学的研究生和本科生提供创新的教育机会。将组织针对高中和少数民族学生的外展活动。有充分的证据（轶事和其他）表明，现实生活中的决策往往受到偏离标准博弈论规则的感知的指导。使用前景理论来理解这些用户的角色？智能电网是一个日益以生产消费者为中心的系统，对它的认知是加速其采用的垫脚石。对能源管理中前景理论的初步研究表明，偏离标准博弈论可能导致电网性能不理想，因此需要新的认识到现实生活中产消行为的前景理论方案。利用前景理论，引入了一个新的框架，从根本上理解产消参与能源管理的作用。由于理论、算法设计和认知心理学实验的跨学科混合，本研究将产生以下关键创新：1)关于产消行为对能源管理影响的新基本结果；2)以产消为中心的可持续能源管理方案和相关定价机制，通过新颖的前景理论概念，通过紧密整合用户行为和主观效用感知的影响来优化电网运行；3)用于电网感知能源管理的新随机前景理论博弈类，该类考虑了可再生能源等因素导致的电网动态和不确定性；4)现实生活中的认知心理学实验与一个新的软件平台相结合，将为智能电网的产消者产生新的、现实的行为模型。

This project considers the interaction of prosumers with the power grid using prospect theory, a seminal contribution to behavioral economics that won the Nobel Prize (?prosumer? refers to an electricity consumer who also takes the role of a producer and seller of electricity). Prospect theory gives a methodology for understanding people?s economic choices based on their actual behavior and their assessment of potential gains and losses versus the assessed levels of risk. Prospect theory thus helps one to understand the actual dynamics of economic choices, without assuming that the outcomes that might be predicted using game theory must actually come to pass. The project takes the stand that achieving a sustainable smart grid requires transforming today?s power grid into a prosumer-centric grid in which a significant portion of energy stems from renewable sources and other prosumer-owned devices. The success of this vision is contingent on large-scale, active prosumer participation in energy management. However, just because such participation can be of significant benefit to participants, it cannot be assumed that prosumers will actually become fully involved in the smart grid. Empirical data shows that, despite its exciting prospects, the widespread adoption of the smart grid has been hindered by modest user participation. Motivated by emerging grid scenarios, this project employs the mathematical framework of prospect theory to study smart grid energy management. The results of the project will advance multiple disciplines including power systems, game theory, economics, and cognitive psychology. The behavioral experiments will pioneer the generation of new real life models for user participation in energy management. This interdisciplinary research will provide necessary mathematical foundations to expedite the realization of a prosumer-centric, sustainable smart grid vision. The developed techniques will provide a fundamental understanding of the role of prosumers in the smart grid. It can also lead to new economic and regulatory grid protocols and policies. A software tool will create a new platform for participation in smart grid research and education. The unique marriage of smart grid design and cognitive psychology will offer an innovative educational opportunity to involve graduate and undergraduate students from both engineering and psychology via new and existing courses as well as participation in behavioral experiments. Outreach events targeted at high school and minority students will be organized.There is ample evidence (anecdotal and otherwise) that decision making in real life is often guided by perceptions that deviate from the precepts of standard game theory. Using prospect theory to understand the role of such users? perceptions in the smart grid, an increasingly prosumer-centric system, is a stepping stone toward accelerating its adoption. Preliminary investigation of prospect theory in energy management reveals that deviations from standard game theory can lead to undesirable grid performance, thus necessitating new prospect theory schemes cognizant of real life prosumer behavior. Using prospect theory, a novel framework is introduced to fundamentally understand the role of prosumer participation in energy management. Due to an interdisciplinary mix of theory, algorithm design, and cognitive psychology experiments, this research will yield the following key innovations: 1) new fundamental results on the impact of prosumer behavior on energy management, 2) prosumer-centric, sustainable energy management schemes and associated pricing mechanisms that optimize grid operation by tightly integrating the effect of user behavior and subjective utility perceptions via novel prospect theory notions, 3) a new stochastic prospect theory game class for grid-aware energy management that accounts for grid dynamics and uncertainty due to factors such as renewables, and 4) real life cognitive psychology experiments coupled with a new software platform that will yield new, realistic behavioral models for smart grid prosumers.