EAGER: Renewables: Collaborative Research: Foundations of Prosumer-Centric Grid Energy Management

这个项目考虑的互动prosumers与电网使用前景理论，一个开创性的贡献，行为经济学，赢得了诺贝尔奖（？产消者？是指电力消费者，同时也是电力的生产者和销售者）。前景理论提供了一种理解人的方法论？根据他们的实际行为和他们对潜在收益和损失的评估与评估的风险水平的经济选择。因此，前景理论有助于人们理解经济选择的实际动态，而不必假设用博弈论可以预测的结果一定会发生。 该项目的立场是，实现可持续的智能电网需要改造今天？将美国的电网转变为以产消者为中心的电网，其中很大一部分能源来自可再生能源和其他产消者拥有的设备。这一愿景的成功取决于大规模、积极的产消者参与能源管理。然而，仅仅因为这种参与可以给参与者带来显着好处，就不能假设产消者实际上会完全参与智能电网。经验数据表明，尽管智能电网的前景令人兴奋，但由于用户参与有限，智能电网的广泛采用受到了阻碍。本计画以新兴的电网情境为动机，运用前景理论的数学架构来研究智慧型电网能源管理。该项目的成果将推动多个学科的发展，包括电力系统、博弈论、经济学和认知心理学。行为实验将开创新一代的真实的生活模式，供用户参与能源管理。这项跨学科的研究将提供必要的数学基础，以加快实现以生产者为中心的可持续智能电网愿景。所开发的技术将提供一个基本的理解，在智能电网中的prosumers的作用。它还可以导致新的经济和监管网格协议和政策。一个软件工具将为参与智能电网研究和教育创造一个新的平台。智能电网设计和认知心理学的独特结合将提供一个创新的教育机会，通过新的和现有的课程以及参与行为实验，让工程和心理学的研究生和本科生参与进来。将组织针对高中生和少数民族学生的外联活动。有充分的证据（轶事和其他）表明，在真实的生活中，决策往往受到偏离标准博弈论戒律的看法的指导。用前景理论来理解这类用户的角色？智能电网是一个越来越以生产者消费者为中心的系统，人们对智能电网的看法是加速采用智能电网的垫脚石。能源管理中的前景理论的初步研究表明，偏离标准博弈理论会导致不理想的电网性能，因此需要新的前景理论方案认识到真实的生活消费者的行为。利用前景理论，一个新的框架，从根本上理解在能源管理中的作用，生产消费者的参与。由于理论，算法设计和认知心理学实验的跨学科混合，这项研究将产生以下关键创新：1）关于产消者行为对能源管理影响的新的基本结果，2）以产消者为中心，可持续能源管理方案和相关的定价机制，通过将用户行为和主观效用感知的影响紧密结合起来，前景理论概念，3）用于电网感知能量管理的新的随机前景理论游戏类，其考虑了由于诸如可再生能源的因素引起的电网动态和不确定性，以及4）与新的软件平台耦合的真实的认知心理学实验，其将产生用于智能电网生产者的新的、现实的行为模型。

This project considers the interaction of prosumers with the power grid using prospect theory, a seminal contribution to behavioral economics that won the Nobel Prize (?prosumer? refers to an electricity consumer who also takes the role of a producer and seller of electricity). Prospect theory gives a methodology for understanding people?s economic choices based on their actual behavior and their assessment of potential gains and losses versus the assessed levels of risk. Prospect theory thus helps one to understand the actual dynamics of economic choices, without assuming that the outcomes that might be predicted using game theory must actually come to pass. The project takes the stand that achieving a sustainable smart grid requires transforming today?s power grid into a prosumer-centric grid in which a significant portion of energy stems from renewable sources and other prosumer-owned devices. The success of this vision is contingent on large-scale, active prosumer participation in energy management. However, just because such participation can be of significant benefit to participants, it cannot be assumed that prosumers will actually become fully involved in the smart grid. Empirical data shows that, despite its exciting prospects, the widespread adoption of the smart grid has been hindered by modest user participation. Motivated by emerging grid scenarios, this project employs the mathematical framework of prospect theory to study smart grid energy management. The results of the project will advance multiple disciplines including power systems, game theory, economics, and cognitive psychology. The behavioral experiments will pioneer the generation of new real life models for user participation in energy management. This interdisciplinary research will provide necessary mathematical foundations to expedite the realization of a prosumer-centric, sustainable smart grid vision. The developed techniques will provide a fundamental understanding of the role of prosumers in the smart grid. It can also lead to new economic and regulatory grid protocols and policies. A software tool will create a new platform for participation in smart grid research and education. The unique marriage of smart grid design and cognitive psychology will offer an innovative educational opportunity to involve graduate and undergraduate students from both engineering and psychology via new and existing courses as well as participation in behavioral experiments. Outreach events targeted at high school and minority students will be organized.There is ample evidence (anecdotal and otherwise) that decision making in real life is often guided by perceptions that deviate from the precepts of standard game theory. Using prospect theory to understand the role of such users? perceptions in the smart grid, an increasingly prosumer-centric system, is a stepping stone toward accelerating its adoption. Preliminary investigation of prospect theory in energy management reveals that deviations from standard game theory can lead to undesirable grid performance, thus necessitating new prospect theory schemes cognizant of real life prosumer behavior. Using prospect theory, a novel framework is introduced to fundamentally understand the role of prosumer participation in energy management. Due to an interdisciplinary mix of theory, algorithm design, and cognitive psychology experiments, this research will yield the following key innovations: 1) new fundamental results on the impact of prosumer behavior on energy management, 2) prosumer-centric, sustainable energy management schemes and associated pricing mechanisms that optimize grid operation by tightly integrating the effect of user behavior and subjective utility perceptions via novel prospect theory notions, 3) a new stochastic prospect theory game class for grid-aware energy management that accounts for grid dynamics and uncertainty due to factors such as renewables, and 4) real life cognitive psychology experiments coupled with a new software platform that will yield new, realistic behavioral models for smart grid prosumers.