Choices under Uncertainty

不确定下的选择当人们在不确定的情况下做出决定时，他们往往在不知道自己行为的全部后果的情况下做出选择。不确定性下的决策是生活和人类经验的一个基本特征。投资者指数试图了解这些决定是如何在金融市场的背景下做出的。理解金融决策将有助于阐明个人如何在不确定性下做出选择，并有助于我们对金融市场和模型的理解。例如，这可以帮助我们揭示金融危机的原因。拟议的研究对金融环境中的不确定情况下的决策进行了一系列新颖的实验。不确定条件下决策的最基本理论是主观期望效用。它的用法无处不在，是经济学和其他社会科学。PIs提出了一种新的实验和经验方法来检验SEU及其推广：状态依赖期望效用(SDU)和最大期望效用(MEU)。该研究旨在阐明在不确定的金融市场环境下最重要的选择理论的适用性和范围。这样的环境一直是，并将继续是经济学学术研究的焦点，也是公众的普遍利益。理解最常用的个人选择理论在金融市场中的适用性，对于我们进一步理解金融市场是至关重要的。新方法包含两个关键创新：1)它提供了非参数显示偏好测试，允许对不依赖于特定参数假设的理论进行测试；2)它假设了一个不确定条件下的金融决策环境。

Choices under UncertaintyWhen people make decisions under uncertainty, they often choose without knowing the full consequences of their actions. Decisions under uncertainty are a basic feature of life and of the human experience. The PIs seek to understand how such decisions are made in the context of financial markets. Understanding financial decisions will shed light on how individuals make choices under uncertainty and aid our understanding of financial markets and models. This can help us uncover, for example, the causes of financial crisis.The proposed research carries out a set of novel experiments on decisions under uncertainty in financial settings. The most fundamental theory of decisions under uncertainty is subjective expected utility (SEU). Its use is ubiquitous is economics, and other social sciences. The PIs propose a new experimental and empirical approach to testing SEU and its generalizations: state dependent expected utility (SDU), and maxmin expected utility (MEU).The proposed research seeks to elucidate the applicability and scope of the most important theories of choice under uncertainty in a financial market environment. Such environments have been, and continue to be, the focus of academic research in economics, and the general interest of the public. It is crucial to further our understanding of financial market that we understand the applicability of the most commonly-used theories of individual choice in such markets. The new approach contains two key innovations: 1) it provides non-parametric revealed preference tests, allowing for a test of the theory that does not rest on particular parametric assumptions; and 2) it assumes an environment of financial decision making under uncertainty.