Choices under Uncertainty

不确定性下的选择

• 批准号: 1558757
• 负责人: Federico Echenique
• 金额: $ 39.2万
• 依托单位: California Institute of Technology
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2016
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2016-03-01 至 2022-02-28
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1558757&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Choices; under; Uncertainty

Choices under UncertaintyWhen people make decisions under uncertainty, they often choose without knowing the full consequences of their actions. Decisions under uncertainty are a basic feature of life and of the human experience. The PIs seek to understand how such decisions are made in the context of financial markets. Understanding financial decisions will shed light on how individuals make choices under uncertainty and aid our understanding of financial markets and models. This can help us uncover, for example, the causes of financial crisis.The proposed research carries out a set of novel experiments on decisions under uncertainty in financial settings. The most fundamental theory of decisions under uncertainty is subjective expected utility (SEU). Its use is ubiquitous is economics, and other social sciences. The PIs propose a new experimental and empirical approach to testing SEU and its generalizations: state dependent expected utility (SDU), and maxmin expected utility (MEU).The proposed research seeks to elucidate the applicability and scope of the most important theories of choice under uncertainty in a financial market environment. Such environments have been, and continue to be, the focus of academic research in economics, and the general interest of the public. It is crucial to further our understanding of financial market that we understand the applicability of the most commonly-used theories of individual choice in such markets. The new approach contains two key innovations: 1) it provides non-parametric revealed preference tests, allowing for a test of the theory that does not rest on particular parametric assumptions; and 2) it assumes an environment of financial decision making under uncertainty.

当人们在不确定的情况下做出决定时，他们往往不知道自己行为的全部后果。在不确定的情况下作出决定是生活和人类经验的一个基本特征。PI试图了解这些决策是如何在金融市场的背景下做出的。理解金融决策将有助于我们了解个人如何在不确定性下做出选择，并有助于我们理解金融市场和模型。这可以帮助我们发现，例如，金融危机的原因。拟议的研究进行了一系列新的实验，在金融环境下的不确定性决策。不确定性决策的最基本理论是主观期望效用（SEU）。它的使用是无处不在的是经济学，和其他社会科学。PI提出了一种新的实验和实证方法来测试SEU及其推广：状态依赖预期效用（SDU），最大最小预期效用（MEU）。拟议的研究旨在阐明在金融市场环境中的不确定性下的最重要的选择理论的适用性和范围。这样的环境一直是，并将继续是经济学学术研究的焦点，也是公众的普遍利益。理解最常用的个人选择理论在金融市场中的适用性，对于我们进一步理解金融市场至关重要。新方法包含两个关键的创新：1）它提供了非参数显示偏好测试，允许测试的理论，不依赖于特定的参数假设; 2）它假设的环境下的不确定性的财务决策。