RAPID: Exploiting El Nino to Test for Shear Dilation in a Slow Moving Landslide

山体滑坡是一种自然灾害，可能会破坏基础设施并造成生命损失。有些滑坡是迅速的，灾难性的，发生在几秒钟到几分钟的时间内。另一些则行动迟缓，有时一年只移动几毫米，而且只有在下雨的情况下才会移动。经过数年甚至数个世纪，这些缓慢移动的山体滑坡，也被称为土流，会用沉积物污染水体，破坏水坝和其他类型的民用基础设施。这个项目将检查加州一个长期休眠的土流，气象学家预测，由于即将到来的厄尔尼诺现象，这个土流预计将在今年冬天移动。收集到的数据将来可能使我们有能力预测导致土流运动的条件。这种知识对民用基础设施的建设和管理是有用的。此外，该项目将为一名美洲原住民博士生提供培训。项目结果将与公用事业委员会共享，以告知他们的管理决策。该项目将使用来自连续探地雷达（GPS）站和浅层地下水监测网络的新测量数据，结合在加利福尼亚州圣何塞附近的Oakridge土流上建立的40个现有基准网络，来测试首席研究员关于调节土流变形和防止其灾难性失败的物理过程的假设。该提案解决了缺乏预测滑坡运动的运输法律的问题，这是2010年国家研究委员会报告“边缘景观”中确定的一个关键知识缺口。考虑到即将到来的厄尔尼诺现象可能是有史以来最强烈的，这个项目提供了一个独特的、时间敏感的机会来研究广泛的滑坡活动。

Landslides are a natural hazard that can potentially damage infrastructure and cause loss of life. Some landslides are rapid and catastrophic, occurring over periods of seconds to minutes. Others are sluggish, sometimes moving only millimeters per year and only when activated by rain. Over years to centuries, these slow-moving landslides, also known as earthflows, can contaminate waterbodies with sediment and damage dams and other types of civil infrastructure. This project will examine a long dormant earthflow in California that is expected to move this winter as a result of the coming El Nino that meteorologists are predicting. The data collected may lead in the future to the ability to predict the conditions that result in earthflow movement. This knowledge could be useful for construction and management of civil infrastructure. In addition, this project will provide training to a Native American Ph.D. student. The project results will be shared with a public utility commission to inform their management decisions.This project will use new measurements from a continuous Ground-Penetrating Radar (GPS) station and a shallow groundwater monitoring network in combination with an existing network of 40 established benchmarks on the Oakridge earthflow near San Jose, CA, to test the Principal Investigator's hypothesis for the physical process that regulates the deformation of earthflows and prevents them from failing catastrophically. The proposal addresses the lack of transport laws for predicting landslide motion, identified as a key knowledge gap in the 2010 National Research Council report "Landscapes on the Edge". Given the possibility that the coming El Nino event may be among the strongest ever recorded, this project offers a unique, time-sensitive opportunity to examine widespread landslide activity.