Improved understanding of bow echo evolution and long-lasting significantly severe thunderstorm winds

有组织的雷暴线条，通常被称为广场线或中尺度对流系统，可能会产生大片破坏性的大风。有两种现象与强风特别相关：弓形回声是嵌入在一条更大的线中的小段，包含更高的风，似乎比线的其余部分“弯”出去；以及德回声，它是非常持久的线，在大范围内产生显著的风。这项研究将使用高分辨率数值模拟来研究导致船头回波和反回波的过程。这些事件的高影响性质意味着更好的理解和更好的预测的可能性将在公共安全和经济利益方面带来巨大的红利。此外，不同级别的学生将参与该项目，从而培训下一代科学家。这一奖项的目标是增进对中尺度对流系统(MCS)形态演变的了解，重点是弓形回声和与其中一些系统相关的显著严重的持久风的形成(称为德回声事件)。该项目将利用天气研究和预报(WRF)和云模型1(CM1)数值模式来研究MCS的各个方面。具体而言，该项目将：·在模拟中研究促进MCS高尺度增长的过程的作用，特别是冷池前沿温度梯度的强度，冷池前沿重力波和直接升力的贡献，以及它们对对流允许模式(CAM)网格间距的敏感性。·研究导致弓形回波形成的过程，重点是流入方向、线与预先存在的单体的合并、边界的存在及其对CAM网格间距的敏感性。·增进对导致MCS中持续时间较长的显著强风的过程的理解，包括环境环境中干空气的垂直位置等特征的作用，在某些情况下导致强烈中尺度涡旋形成的因素，以及这些涡旋是否对特别强的中尺度涡旋是必要的，·研究气候变化对通过伪全球变暖方法探索的DERECHO事件的影响。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力优势和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

Organized lines of thunderstorms, often known as squall lines or mesoscale convective systems, can produce large swaths of damaging winds. Two phenomena are particularly associated with high winds: bow echoes which are small segments embedded in a larger line that contain higher winds and seem to “bow” out ahead of the rest of the line, and derechos which are very long-lived lines which produce significant winds across a large area. This study will use fine resolution numerical modeling to investigate the processes that lead to bow echos and derechos. The high-impact nature of these events means that better understanding and the likelihood for better forecasting will have large dividends in terms of public safety and economic benefits. Additionally, students at various levels would be involved in the project, thereby training the next generation of scientists.The goal of this award is to improve understanding of the morphological evolution of mesoscale convective systems (MCSs), with an emphasis on bow echoes and the formation of significantly severe long-lasting wind associated with some of them (known as derecho events). The project will make use of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) and Cloud Model 1 (CM1) numerical models to study various aspects of MCSs. In particular, the project will:• Examine the role of processes contributing to upscale growth in MCSs, particularly the strength of the temperature gradient at the leading edge of the cold pool, and contribution of gravity waves and direct lift at the leading edge of the cold pool, and their sensitivity to convection allowing model (CAM) grid spacing in simulations. • Examine the processes leading to bow echo formation, with emphasis on orientation of inflow, merger of lines with pre-existing cells, and presence of a boundary, and their sensitivity to CAM grid spacing.• Improve understanding of processes leading to long-lived significantly severe winds in MCSs, including the roles of features like the vertical position of dry air in the ambient environment, factors leading to intense mesoscale vortex formation in some cases, and whether such vortices are necessary for particularly strong, long-lived swaths of wind to form.• Study the impact of climate change on derecho events explored through the pseudo-global warming approach.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.