Dimensions - Predicting Biodiversity Vulnerability to Climate Change: Integrating Phylogenetic, Genomic, and Functional Diversity in River Floodplains

河流漫滩是地球上最多样化和最具生产力的景观之一，但由于水坝、开发、渠化和气候变化造成的改变，它们也是最濒危的景观之一。未改变的洪泛区特别重要，因为它们提供了我们在地面上可以看到的水和我们在地下网络中看不到的水之间的广泛交换，这些网络通常延伸到远离河道的很长一段距离。这种水的交换创造了多样化的栖息地，支持数千种植物，动物和微生物，同时提供宝贵的生态系统服务，如水净化和缓冲洪水。这项研究将提高我们对生物多样性如何随着河流漫滩等景观的气候变化而变化的理解，并将有助于确定非常容易受到环境变化影响的小型动物的“指示物种”。这些指示物种可用于监测全球河流生态系统未来气候变化的负面影响。该项目预计将在蒙大拿州和华盛顿的河漫滩上发现许多新物种，并将开展“bioblitz”活动，学生和公众（公民科学家）将与科学家合作，寻找和识别尽可能多的河漫滩物种。此外，该项目将为本科生提供夏季实地课程的教育机会，培训研究生和博士后研究员的基因组技术，开发免费软件，为美洲原住民学生提供宝贵的实地和实验室经验，并制作教育宣传视频，播客，网页，该项目将填补生物多样性研究中的重要知识空白，具体做法是：1）量化含水层和底栖洪泛区物种之间的系统发育多样性，同时确定新物种，2）测量12种指示物种对气候变化的敏感性（代表不同的功能组）沿着环境梯度从含水层和河流取样，3）通过测量和模拟水温和溶解氧的变化，量化含水层和河流对气候变化的暴露，4）通过测量扩散率和基因流，评估洪泛区指示物种的适应能力，和遗传多样性（在中性和适应性遗传标记），和5）预测生物多样性的整体脆弱性内和之间的洪泛平原。该项目的基因组部分结合了全基因组研究，以揭示多个野生指示物种中的pupillary适应性基因标记。该项目将在一个创新框架中整合系统发育、基因组和功能生物多样性，该框架将气候变化脆弱性建模的关键组成部分与使用贝叶斯网络方法的人口和人口遗传建模相结合。该项目中的新综合方法将提供迄今为止对物种和群落脆弱性最彻底和最定量的评估之一。该方法将迅速推进对河流洪泛区的了解，这是全球生物多样性受到威胁的热点。

River floodplains are among the most diverse and productive landscapes on Earth, yet they are also among the most endangered because of alterations resulting from dams, development, channelization, and climate change. Unaltered floodplains are particularly important because they provide extensive exchange between water we that can see above ground and water that we cannot see in underground networks that often extend long distances away from the river channel. This exchange of water creates diverse habitats that support thousands of species of plants, animals, and microorganisms while providing valuable ecosystem services such as water purification and buffering floods. This research will improve our understanding how biodiversity varies with climate in landscapes like river floodplains, and will help identify "indicator species" of very small animals that are highly vulnerable to environmental change. Such indicator species can be used to monitor river ecosystems globally for negative impacts of climate change in the future. This project is expected to discover many new species on river floodplains in Montana and Washington, and will conduct "bioblitz" events in which students and the general public (citizen scientists) will work with scientists to find and identify as many floodplain species as possible. Additionally, this project will provide educational opportunities for undergraduate students in summer field courses, train graduate students and postdoctoral fellows in genomic techniques, develop free software, provide Native American students with valuable field and lab experience, and produce educational outreach videos, podcasts, a web page, and scientific publications.This project will fill important knowledge gaps in biodiversity research by 1) quantifying phylogenetic diversity among aquifer and benthic floodplain species while identifying new species, 2) measuring sensitivity to climate change of 12 indicator species (representing diverse functional groups) sampled from aquifers and rivers along environmental gradients, 3) quantify exposure to climate change in the aquifer and river by measuring and modeling variation in water temperature and dissolved oxygen, 4) assessing adaptive capacity in floodplain indicator species by measuring rates of dispersal and gene flow, and genetic diversity (at neutral and adaptive genetic markers), and 5) predict overall vulnerability of biodiversity within and among floodplains. The genomic component of this project combines genome-wide studies to reveal putatively adaptive gene markers in multiple, wild indicator species. This project will integrate phylogenetic, genomic, and functional biodiversity in an innovative framework combining key components of climate change vulnerability modeling and demographic and population genetic modeling using a Bayesian network approach. The novel integrative approaches in this project will provide one of the most thorough and quantitative assessments of species and community vulnerability to date. The approach will rapidly advance understanding of river floodplains, which are globally threatened hotspots of biodiversity.