Dimensions - Predicting Biodiversity Vulnerability to Climate Change: Integrating Phylogenetic, Genomic, and Functional Diversity in River Floodplains

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River floodplains are among the most diverse and productive landscapes on Earth, yet they are also among the most endangered because of alterations resulting from dams, development, channelization, and climate change. Unaltered floodplains are particularly important because they provide extensive exchange between water we that can see above ground and water that we cannot see in underground networks that often extend long distances away from the river channel. This exchange of water creates diverse habitats that support thousands of species of plants, animals, and microorganisms while providing valuable ecosystem services such as water purification and buffering floods. This research will improve our understanding how biodiversity varies with climate in landscapes like river floodplains, and will help identify "indicator species" of very small animals that are highly vulnerable to environmental change. Such indicator species can be used to monitor river ecosystems globally for negative impacts of climate change in the future. This project is expected to discover many new species on river floodplains in Montana and Washington, and will conduct "bioblitz" events in which students and the general public (citizen scientists) will work with scientists to find and identify as many floodplain species as possible. Additionally, this project will provide educational opportunities for undergraduate students in summer field courses, train graduate students and postdoctoral fellows in genomic techniques, develop free software, provide Native American students with valuable field and lab experience, and produce educational outreach videos, podcasts, a web page, and scientific publications.This project will fill important knowledge gaps in biodiversity research by 1) quantifying phylogenetic diversity among aquifer and benthic floodplain species while identifying new species, 2) measuring sensitivity to climate change of 12 indicator species (representing diverse functional groups) sampled from aquifers and rivers along environmental gradients, 3) quantify exposure to climate change in the aquifer and river by measuring and modeling variation in water temperature and dissolved oxygen, 4) assessing adaptive capacity in floodplain indicator species by measuring rates of dispersal and gene flow, and genetic diversity (at neutral and adaptive genetic markers), and 5) predict overall vulnerability of biodiversity within and among floodplains. The genomic component of this project combines genome-wide studies to reveal putatively adaptive gene markers in multiple, wild indicator species. This project will integrate phylogenetic, genomic, and functional biodiversity in an innovative framework combining key components of climate change vulnerability modeling and demographic and population genetic modeling using a Bayesian network approach. The novel integrative approaches in this project will provide one of the most thorough and quantitative assessments of species and community vulnerability to date. The approach will rapidly advance understanding of river floodplains, which are globally threatened hotspots of biodiversity.