CAREER: Quantifying drought and vulnerability indicators for water security in a changing environment

CBET 1653841 PI：米什拉、阿肖克该项目将创建一个在极端干旱情况下改善水资源可持续性的新模式，并将其介绍给科学界、社会界和政策界。模型结果将分发给目前正在处理水可持续性问题的用户群体，并可能在未来这样做。该项目预计将直接惠及区域利益攸关方，以改善干旱期间的水资源管理，并协助联邦机构提前预测与利益攸关方有关的水资源脆弱性。综合模型和方法将在萨凡纳河流域进行测试，预计该方法将推广到该国其他经常遭受干旱威胁的地区，目的是通过解决三个研究目标来评估极端干旱情况下的水安全。具体地说，前两个研究目标将侧重于通过评估依赖结构、梯级行为和脆弱性阈值来量化干旱-水安全关系，而第三个目标是应用该方法来利用季节性预测和利益相关者信息来改进决策。研究目标将与旨在为当前水不安全问题提供解决办法的多学科教育和研究计划密切相关。

CBET 1653841 PI: Mishra, Ashok This project will create a new model for improving water sustainability under extreme droughts and introduce it to the scientific, social and policy communities. The model results will be distributed to user groups who are currently coping with water sustainability issues and will likely do so in the future. The project is anticipated to directly benefit regional stake holders to enable improved management of water resources during drought conditions, and also to assist federal agencies to forecast vulnerability to water stress in advance times that are relevant to stakeholders. The integrated model and approach will be tested in the Savannah River Basin, and it is anticipated that the methodology will be extendible to other parts of the country that witness frequent drought threats to water security.The goal is to evaluate water security in the context of drought extremes by addressing three research objectives. Specifically, the first two research objectives will focus on quantifying the drought-water security relationship by evaluating dependence structure, cascade behavior and vulnerability threshold, while the third objective is to apply the approach to improve decision making using seasonal forecast and stakeholder information. The research objectives will be tightly connected with a multidisciplinary education and research plan designed to provide solutions to current water insecurity problems.