Collaborative Research: Evaluating how abalone populations in the California Current are structured by the interplay of large-scale oceanographic forcing and nearshore variability

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Oceanographic variability is increasingly recognized as a driver of change in marine ecosystems. Understanding the effects of this oceanographic variability and its extremes on organisms, populations, ecosystems and the critical services they deliver is of great scientific interest and pivotal for resource management and policy. The overarching goal of this project is to determine how small-scale heterogeneity in habitat quality and site-specific vulnerability to extreme oceanographic conditions might help identify safe spaces and protect coastal populations and fisheries from the detrimental effects of increasing frequency, intensity and durations of extreme oceanographic conditions. This project will combine detailed nearshore oceanographic studies with ecological experiments and coupled biophysical modeling to advance understanding of the drivers of local oceanographic variability and consequent effects on coastal marine animals. The research will determine how multiple, potentially stressful, environmental drivers co-vary in the field and how such variation affects the population dynamics of coastal species. Specifically, this project will provide key insights regarding how changes in ocean acidification, dissolved oxygen and temperature will affect green and pink abalone, an ecologically and economically important resource in the southern California Current. Team members will work with partner non-governmental organizations, resource agencies, and fishing cooperative federations to disseminate results and incorporate data and insights into fisheries management and adaptation initiatives in Baja California, Mexico and in California, USA. This project will also support the training and professional development of underrepresented groups at the high school, undergraduate, graduate and postdoctoral levels through direct involvement in research, intensive courses and international workshops.Despite large-scale drivers and regional perturbations, local variability in ocean conditions may be a major driver of the overall performance and vulnerability of coastal marine species. Research performed as part of this project will test two specific hypotheses: (1) The relative influences of upwelling versus tides, as mediated by coastal geometry and structural complexity associated with rocky reefs and kelp forests act to create high local variability in physical conditions, at scales of 10s-1000s meters; and (2) Local variability in oceanographic conditions results in high local patchiness in the performance of sedentary marine organisms, providing for safe spaces in the face of escalating heat waves, hypoxia, and acidification, that have caused recent mass mortalities in multiple species across the California Current region. Integrated oceanographic-ecological field studies will be conducted along the coast of Baja California, Mexico, using green and pink abalone (Haliotis fulgens, H. corrugata) as model species. Complementary laboratory experiments will evaluate how different exposure regimes (frequency, intensity and duration of high temperature, and/or low dissolved oxygen and acidity events) may affect the demography and persistence of abalone populations under current and future environments. Coupled biophysical and population models will integrate results from the field and laboratory experiments to understand how local variability in ocean conditions affects population dynamics over longer periods. The research will advance the understanding of factors affecting the resilience coastal species by (1) ascertaining how large-scale oceanographic phenomena manifest in ocean conditions (dissolved oxygen, acidity, temperature) at local scales that are most relevant to coastal marine ecosystems and (2) determining the effects of current, and expected future, ocean conditions and variability on important marine species.