DISES: Pathways and constraints to adaptation in coastal social-environmental systems

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Coastal ecosystems and communities around the world are affected by an increasingly variable climate, and shocks from market, political and social change, including the current COVID-19 pandemic. This award will focus on small scale fisheries that produce two thirds of the seafood consumed annually and are critical to the food security and livelihoods of hundreds of millions of people. The award’s research will illuminate the processes and conditions that promote the resilience of coastal communities and ecosystems to global change. This knowledge is crucial for supporting adaptation to change, and for effective decision making under risk and uncertainty. The research will explore food security and social stability, informing adaptation to climate change and market shocks in the California Current system, and building capacity for students, researchers and citizens to address global challenges in both national and international settings.Researchers will combine oceanographic and ecological field studies, and biophysical and bioeconomic models to advance understanding of the role of environmental, social and market change on the dynamics of marine populations, fisheries and coastal economies. Specifically the award will address: (1) the increase understanding of how regional environmental drivers, local conditions, and changes in fishing pressure and patterns affect resilience through nearshore oceanographic, ecological and fisheries monitoring; (2) forecast outcomes, risks and benefits of adaptive actions through statistical analyses and bioeconomic models; (3) assess risk perception, constraints and social outcomes of alternative adaptation pathways through surveys with stakeholders; and (4) build and test a theory of adaptive capacity (the constraints, preferences, and information used to support decision-making under risk and uncertainty) to determine whether adaptive capacity is context-specific. Behavioral economics field experiments and analyses of social drivers and institutions will provide new insights into adaptive strategies and the resilience of socio-environmental coastal systems, and how marine users perceive and deal with risk, rapid change, and uncertainty. The project will inform adaptation and resilience to climate, social, market and political change in coastal communities around the world, and will provide a generalizable model for participatory co-production of knowledge and its application to marine and coastal management and adaptation.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.