I-Corps: Weather Augmented Risk Determination System

I-Corps：天气增强风险确定系统

• 批准号: 1745784
• 负责人: Amir AghaKouchak
• 金额: $ 5万
• 依托单位: University of California-Irvine
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2017
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2017-07-01 至 2018-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1745784&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Corps; Weather; Augmented; Risk; Determination

The broader impact/commercial potential of this I-Corps project includes providing weather-related risk information to construction contracting companies, private farmers, insurance and re-insurance companies, risk management companies, local, federal agencies, state agencies, and any other company that may be impacted by adverse weather. This product provides insight into the impacts of adverse weather conditions, allowing its constituents to plan and prepare. Construction companies need to stay on schedule to avoid liquidated damages, so it is important to determine the impacts of weather on work stoppage, as well as decreased labor productivity. Insurance and risk management companies need information on the impacts of weather events on their constituents, to be able to competitively price their insurance policies. Furthermore, government agencies, such as the Departments of Transportation and Public Works need information on the impacts of weather on duration of their projects, to determine the best starting date for construction, considering impacts of weather on delays.This I-Corps project provides a software tool (Weather Augmented Risk Determination System, WARDS) for estimating probabilities of work stoppage and labor productivity for each hour using long-term observations. WARDS provides both the likeliest delay (e.g., in days or months) and the likelihood that a user-defined addition of time for weather delay will actually occur. The research potential for this product include analyzing the differences in labor productivity and work stoppage across multiple locations. Furthermore, the technology platform can determine the historical observed changes in labor productivity and work stoppage. The product can determine the monetary impacts of changing labor productivity and work stoppage due to weather.

这个i-Corps项目的更广泛的影响/商业潜力包括向建筑承包公司、私人农民、保险和再保险公司、风险管理公司、地方、联邦机构、州机构以及任何其他可能受到恶劣天气影响的公司提供与天气有关的风险信息。该产品提供对不利天气条件的影响的洞察，使其成员能够计划和准备。建筑公司需要按期进行，以避免违约金，因此确定天气对停工的影响以及劳动生产率下降是很重要的。保险和风险管理公司需要有关天气事件对其成员的影响的信息，以便能够具有竞争力地为其保单定价。此外，政府机构，如交通部和公共工程部，需要了解天气对项目工期的影响，以确定最佳施工日期，并考虑天气对延误的影响。这个i-Corps项目提供了一个软件工具(天气增强风险确定系统，WARDS)，用于使用长期观察来估计每小时的停工概率和劳动生产率。WARDS既提供了最有可能的延迟(例如，以天或月为单位)，也提供了实际发生用户定义的天气延迟的增加时间的可能性。该产品的研究潜力包括分析多个地点的劳动生产率和停工时间的差异。此外，技术平台可以确定所观察到的劳动生产率和停工的历史变化。该产品可以确定因天气原因改变劳动生产率和停工造成的货币影响。