I-Corps: Global Integrated Drought Monitoring and Prediction System

全球干旱综合监测和预测系统（GIDMaPS）是第一个全球多指标干旱监测和季节预测系统。GIDMaPS提供接近实时的干旱信息，包括利用（a）基于土壤水分积累的标准化土壤水分指数;（B）新开发的多变量标准化干旱指数进行基于持续性的干旱预测。GIDMaPS的季节预报部分提供了不同干旱严重程度的干旱发生概率。GIDMaPS的监测部分根据五种干旱类型提供干旱信息：D 0（异常干旱）、D1（中度干旱）、D2（严重干旱）、D3（极端干旱）和D4（异常干旱）。季节性干旱预测部分基于美国航天局提供的两个输入数据集（MERRA和NLDAS）和三个干旱指标（SPI、SSI和MSDI）。季节预测部分的输出是干旱发生的概率。迄今为止，大多数研究和模型都使用单变量指标（例如，SPI）。作为现有单变量干旱指数的替代办法，GIDMaPS包括一种新的多变量多指数方法，对农业干旱和气象干旱进行综合评估，拟议的创新可对广泛的客户有用，包括：（a）初级商品投资者;（B）保险和再保险公司;（c）能源公司;（d）私人农民;（e）农业和气象干旱。（e）政府机构，例如美国农业部;及（f）州政府机构，例如水资源部。例如，商品投资者需要全球范围的季节性预测（1-6个月），因为几个国家的干旱可能影响全球粮食价格。因此，GIDMaPS输出可用于做出投资决策。此外，所提出的方法有可能提高目前的能力，美国干旱监测只提供监测信息，没有任何干旱预测。最后，在过去十年中，几次干旱事件导致饥荒，造成生命损失和严重的社会影响。GIDMaPS可以提供干旱早期预警，并有可能用于管理抗旱行动。

The Global Integrated Drought Monitoring and Prediction System (GIDMaPS) is one of the first global multi-index drought monitoring and seasonal prediction systems. GIDMaPS provides near real-time drought information including persistence-based drought prediction using (a) soil moisture accumulations-based standardized soil moisture index (SSI); and (b) the newly developed Multivariate Standardized Drought Index (MSDI). The seasonal forecast component of GIDMaPS provides the probability of drought occurrence for different drought severity levels. The monitoring component of GIDMaPS presents drought information based on five categories of drought types: D0 (abnormally dry), D1 (moderate drought), D2 (severe drought), D3 (extreme drought), and D4 (exceptional drought). The seasonal drought prediction component is based on two input data sets available from NASA (MERRA and NLDAS) and three drought indicators (SPI, SSI, and MSDI). The outputs of the seasonal prediction component are probability of drought occurrence. To date, most studies and models have explored droughts monitoring using univariate indicators (e.g., SPI). As an alternative to currently available univariate drought indices, GIDMaPS includes a novel multivariate multi-index approach (MSDI) which provides a composite assessment of both agricultural and meteorological droughts.The proposed innovation could be useful to a broad list of customers including (a) commodity investors; (b) insurance and re-insurance companies; (c) energy companies; (d) private farmers; (e) government agencies, such as the United States Department of Agriculture; and (f) state agencies, such as the Department of Water Resources. Commodity investors, for example, need seasonal predictions (1-6 months) at the global scale since droughts in several countries can affect global food prices. For this reason, GIDMaPS outputs can be used to make investment decisions. Furthermore, the proposed methodology has the potential to improve the current capabilities of the U.S. Drought Monitor which only provides monitoring information without any drought prediction. Finally, in the past decade, several drought events led to famine, resulting in loss of lives and dire societal impacts. GIDMaPS can provide drought early warning and potentially be used for managing drought relieve operations.