I-Corps: Global Integrated Drought Monitoring and Prediction System

I-Corps：全球综合干旱监测和预测系统

• 批准号: 1354546
• 负责人: Amir AghaKouchak
• 金额: $ 5万
• 依托单位: University of California-Irvine
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2013
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2013-10-01 至 2015-03-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1354546&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Corps; Global; Integrated; Drought; Monitoring

The Global Integrated Drought Monitoring and Prediction System (GIDMaPS) is one of the first global multi-index drought monitoring and seasonal prediction systems. GIDMaPS provides near real-time drought information including persistence-based drought prediction using (a) soil moisture accumulations-based standardized soil moisture index (SSI); and (b) the newly developed Multivariate Standardized Drought Index (MSDI). The seasonal forecast component of GIDMaPS provides the probability of drought occurrence for different drought severity levels. The monitoring component of GIDMaPS presents drought information based on five categories of drought types: D0 (abnormally dry), D1 (moderate drought), D2 (severe drought), D3 (extreme drought), and D4 (exceptional drought). The seasonal drought prediction component is based on two input data sets available from NASA (MERRA and NLDAS) and three drought indicators (SPI, SSI, and MSDI). The outputs of the seasonal prediction component are probability of drought occurrence. To date, most studies and models have explored droughts monitoring using univariate indicators (e.g., SPI). As an alternative to currently available univariate drought indices, GIDMaPS includes a novel multivariate multi-index approach (MSDI) which provides a composite assessment of both agricultural and meteorological droughts.The proposed innovation could be useful to a broad list of customers including (a) commodity investors; (b) insurance and re-insurance companies; (c) energy companies; (d) private farmers; (e) government agencies, such as the United States Department of Agriculture; and (f) state agencies, such as the Department of Water Resources. Commodity investors, for example, need seasonal predictions (1-6 months) at the global scale since droughts in several countries can affect global food prices. For this reason, GIDMaPS outputs can be used to make investment decisions. Furthermore, the proposed methodology has the potential to improve the current capabilities of the U.S. Drought Monitor which only provides monitoring information without any drought prediction. Finally, in the past decade, several drought events led to famine, resulting in loss of lives and dire societal impacts. GIDMaPS can provide drought early warning and potentially be used for managing drought relieve operations.

全球干旱综合监测预报系统(GIDMaPS)是全球首批多指标干旱监测和季节预报系统之一。GIDMaPS提供近乎实时的干旱信息，包括使用(A)基于土壤水分累积的标准化土壤水分指数(SSI)和(B)新开发的多变量标准化干旱指数(MSDI)的基于持续性的干旱预测。GIDMaPS的季节预报部分提供了不同干旱严重程度的干旱发生概率。GIDMaPS的监测部分根据五种干旱类型提供干旱信息：D0(异常干旱)、D1(中度干旱)、D2(严重干旱)、D3(极端干旱)和D4(异常干旱)。季节性干旱预测部分基于NASA提供的两个输入数据集(MERRA和NLDAS)和三个干旱指标(SPI、SSI和MSDI)。季节预测部分的输出是干旱发生的概率。到目前为止，大多数研究和模型都探索了使用单变量指标(例如SPI)进行干旱监测。作为现有单变量干旱指数的替代，GIDMaPS包括一种新的多变量多指数方法(MSDI)，它提供对农业和气象干旱的综合评估。拟议的创新可能对广泛的客户名单有用，这些客户包括：(A)大宗商品投资者；(B)保险和再保险公司；(C)能源公司；(D)私人农民；(E)政府机构，如美国农业部；(F)国家机构，如水利部。例如，大宗商品投资者需要在全球范围内进行季节性预测(1-6个月)，因为几个国家的干旱可能会影响全球粮食价格。因此，GIDMaPS产出可用于作出投资决策。此外，拟议的方法有可能改善美国干旱监测站目前的能力，该监测站只提供监测信息，而不提供任何干旱预测。最后，在过去十年中，几次干旱事件导致饥荒，造成生命损失和严重的社会影响。GIDMaPS可以提供干旱预警，并有可能用于管理抗旱行动。