A Nested Multi-Scale Hydrological Modeling Framework: Assessing Resilience and Vulnerability to Climate Change

本文提出了一种基于水库调度方案的嵌套多尺度陆地水收支模型，用于气候变化影响评价。大多数气候预测预测，未来气候将变得更温暖、更干燥，这可能会影响水资源供应和水力发电。另一方面，水库是提供抗旱能力的主要基础设施之一，在水资源管理和能源生产中发挥关键作用。然而，目前的气候/水文预估并不能提供不同气候变化情景下水库条件的信息。提出的嵌套模型概念包括嵌套在网格化全球陆地水收支模型中的高分辨率河网和水库运行模型。本项目将使用耦合模式比对项目第5阶段（CMIP5）每日偏差调整后的气候预测作为拟议模型的输入，分析气候变化和变率对水库、干旱期、水力发电和系统恢复力的影响。该项目将评估目前的水库（系统恢复力）是否足以应对气候变化和可变性。此外，该项目还将评估不同代表性浓度路径（rcp）对气候变化的脆弱性和可变性。许多研究都强调水资源对气候变化很敏感，因此应相应地调整水资源管理和规划战略。一些出版物特别强调了美国对水资源的敏感性。提出这一建议的主要动机是需要更广泛和可靠的方法来分析气候变化下水循环的大规模变化（参见美国全球变化研究计划（USGCRP） 2009年报告）。该项目的成果将有助于更好地了解我们对气候变化和变异的适应能力。除了解决项目目标之外，拟议的建模框架还为未来研究土地利用、土地覆盖和城市发展对陆地水循环的影响提供了基础。

In this proposal, a nested multi-scale terrestrial water budget model coupled with a reservoir operation scheme is proposed for climate change impact assessment. Most climate projections predict a warmer and drier climate for the future that could affect both water availability and hydropower energy production. On the other hand, reservoirs are among the main infrastructures that provide resilience against droughts, and play a key role in water resource management and energy production. However, current climate/hydrology projections do not provide information on reservoir conditions under different climate change scenarios. The proposed nested modeling concept includes a high resolution river network and reservoir operation model nested within a gridded global terrestrial water budget model. This project will use the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) daily bias adjusted climate projections as input into the proposed model to analyze the impacts of climate change and variability on reservoirs, dry spells, hydropower energy production, and system resilience. The project will assess whether current reservoirs (system resilience) are adequate to cope with climate change and variability. Furthermore, the project will evaluate vulnerability to climate change and variability under different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Numerous studies have stressed that water resources are sensitive to climate change and thus, water resources management and planning strategies should be adjusted accordingly. In particular, sensitivity of the United States to water resources has been highlighted in several publications. The main motivation for this proposal stems from the demand for more extensive and reliable methods for analyzing large-scale changes to the water cycle under climate change (see the United States Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) 2009 Report). The outcomes of this project will lead to a better understanding of our resilience to climate change and variability. In addition to addressing the project objectives, the proposed modeling framework provides the basis for future studies on the impacts of land-use land cover and urban development on the terrestrial water cycle.