A Nested Multi-Scale Hydrological Modeling Framework: Assessing Resilience and Vulnerability to Climate Change

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In this proposal, a nested multi-scale terrestrial water budget model coupled with a reservoir operation scheme is proposed for climate change impact assessment. Most climate projections predict a warmer and drier climate for the future that could affect both water availability and hydropower energy production. On the other hand, reservoirs are among the main infrastructures that provide resilience against droughts, and play a key role in water resource management and energy production. However, current climate/hydrology projections do not provide information on reservoir conditions under different climate change scenarios. The proposed nested modeling concept includes a high resolution river network and reservoir operation model nested within a gridded global terrestrial water budget model. This project will use the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) daily bias adjusted climate projections as input into the proposed model to analyze the impacts of climate change and variability on reservoirs, dry spells, hydropower energy production, and system resilience. The project will assess whether current reservoirs (system resilience) are adequate to cope with climate change and variability. Furthermore, the project will evaluate vulnerability to climate change and variability under different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Numerous studies have stressed that water resources are sensitive to climate change and thus, water resources management and planning strategies should be adjusted accordingly. In particular, sensitivity of the United States to water resources has been highlighted in several publications. The main motivation for this proposal stems from the demand for more extensive and reliable methods for analyzing large-scale changes to the water cycle under climate change (see the United States Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) 2009 Report). The outcomes of this project will lead to a better understanding of our resilience to climate change and variability. In addition to addressing the project objectives, the proposed modeling framework provides the basis for future studies on the impacts of land-use land cover and urban development on the terrestrial water cycle.