A Nested Multi-Scale Hydrological Modeling Framework: Assessing Resilience and Vulnerability to Climate Change

在这一建议中，嵌套多尺度陆地水收支模式耦合水库调度方案，提出了气候变化影响评估。大多数气候预测都预测未来气候将更加温暖和干燥，这可能会影响水的供应和水力发电。另一方面，水库是提供抗旱能力的主要基础设施之一，在水资源管理和能源生产方面发挥着关键作用。然而，目前的气候/水文预测没有提供不同气候变化情景下水库状况的信息。建议的嵌套建模概念包括一个高分辨率的河流网络和水库调度模型嵌套在一个网格化的全球陆地水收支模型。该项目将使用耦合模式相互比较项目第5阶段（CMIP 5）每日偏差调整的气候预测作为拟议模型的输入，以分析气候变化和变率对水库，干旱期，水电能源生产和系统恢复力的影响。 该项目将评估现有水库（系统复原力）是否足以科普气候变化和变异。此外，该项目还将评估不同代表性浓度路径下对气候变化和变异性的脆弱性。许多研究都强调，水资源对气候变化很敏感，因此，水资源管理和规划战略应作出相应调整。一些出版物特别强调了美国对水资源的敏感性。这一提议的主要动机来自于对更广泛和可靠的方法的需求，以分析气候变化下水循环的大规模变化（见美国全球变化研究计划（USGCRP）2009年报告）。该项目的成果将使我们更好地了解我们对气候变化和变异的适应能力。除了解决项目的目标，拟议的建模框架提供了土地利用土地覆盖和城市发展对陆地水循环的影响的未来研究的基础。

In this proposal, a nested multi-scale terrestrial water budget model coupled with a reservoir operation scheme is proposed for climate change impact assessment. Most climate projections predict a warmer and drier climate for the future that could affect both water availability and hydropower energy production. On the other hand, reservoirs are among the main infrastructures that provide resilience against droughts, and play a key role in water resource management and energy production. However, current climate/hydrology projections do not provide information on reservoir conditions under different climate change scenarios. The proposed nested modeling concept includes a high resolution river network and reservoir operation model nested within a gridded global terrestrial water budget model. This project will use the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) daily bias adjusted climate projections as input into the proposed model to analyze the impacts of climate change and variability on reservoirs, dry spells, hydropower energy production, and system resilience. The project will assess whether current reservoirs (system resilience) are adequate to cope with climate change and variability. Furthermore, the project will evaluate vulnerability to climate change and variability under different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Numerous studies have stressed that water resources are sensitive to climate change and thus, water resources management and planning strategies should be adjusted accordingly. In particular, sensitivity of the United States to water resources has been highlighted in several publications. The main motivation for this proposal stems from the demand for more extensive and reliable methods for analyzing large-scale changes to the water cycle under climate change (see the United States Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) 2009 Report). The outcomes of this project will lead to a better understanding of our resilience to climate change and variability. In addition to addressing the project objectives, the proposed modeling framework provides the basis for future studies on the impacts of land-use land cover and urban development on the terrestrial water cycle.