CAREER: Integrated Studies of Recurring, Non-Traditional Mesoscale Convective Systems

这项研究的目的是通过使用数值模拟、观测分析和综合教育计划--气象教育和中学推广(“MESO”)来确定管理反复出现的非传统中尺度对流系统(MCSs)的组织和维持的机制。在对农业至关重要的大平原上，MCSS产生了大部分暖季降雨量，以及广泛存在的危险天气。最近的工作揭示了两种反复出现的MCS结构，人们对它们知之甚少--具有领先层状(LS)和平行层状(PS)降水的对流线--这两种结构都经常产生山洪暴发。虽然已经研究了LS系统开发和维护的基本机制，但对于PS系统以及高架(不是基于表面的)MCSs来说，这些机制仍然不清楚。这种知识的缺乏很重要，因为如果没有这种知识，通过这些重复出现的组织模式预测降水和有害天气的能力不太可能得到改善。拟议活动的智力优点：这项工作具有创新性，因为它为一个没有得到足够关注的问题提供了一种综合方法，这样做是为了通过MESO计划培训注册的和未来的科学家。这项工作的成果将是：1)解释导致PS MCSs的关键环境和风暴尺度过程，2)解释LS和PS MCSs中的基本过程在对流增强时如何变化，3)解释三维在对流组织中的作用，4)提高注册和进入大学的未来科学家的技能和科学能力。总的来说，这些成果将提高对流组织的可预测性，并将加强致力于这些问题的下一代科学家的力量。研究与教育的结合：MESO计划将产生基于网络的推广工具，为气象教育提供长期手段。MESO计划将要求在册学生了解所资助的研究，并将其用作与非气象学家进行接触的工具，既教育了接触对象，又磨练了在校学生的科学交流和计算技能。本地中学生除了学习有关本地中尺度天气的有用信息外，还将学习科学思维、研究和职业方面的知识。PI将把研究成果纳入他的本科生和研究生课程。此外，MESO的招聘材料将专门针对妇女和少数群体。广泛传播结果：MESO将以非专业的方式发布调查结果的公开新闻，并配以网络单元。MESO的中学部分将以严谨但可理解的方式向将被招募进入科学领域的学生传播成果。最后，除了在高质量的期刊上发表结果外，PI还强烈鼓励他的研究生在会议和预报办公室展示结果。对社会的好处：社会将受益于与非传统MCS相关的危险天气和降水预报的改进，以及更强大、更多样化、沟通能力更强的大学科学家群体。由于MESO，内布拉斯加人也将受益于对天气信息的更好理解。

The goal of this research is to determine the mechanisms governing the organization and maintenance of recurring, non-traditional mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) by using numerical simulations, observational analyses, and an integrated educational program -- Meteorological Education and Secondary School Outreach ("MESO"). MCSs produce much of the warm season rainfall in the agriculturally vital Great Plains, as well as widespread hazardous weather. Recent work has revealed two recurring MCS structures that are poorly understood -convective lines with leading stratiform ("LS") and with parallel stratiform ("PS") precipitation -both of which frequently produce flash flooding. Although the elemental mechanisms for development and maintenance of LS systems have been investigated, they are still unclear for PS systems as well as for elevated (not surface-based) MCSs. This lack of knowledge is important because, without it, the ability to forecast precipitation and hazardous weather from these recurring organizational modes is unlikely to improve.Intellectual Merit of the Proposed Activity: The work is innovative because it provides an integrated approach to a problem that has received insufficient attention, and in doing so seeks to train enrolled and prospective scientists through the MESO program. The outcomes of this work will be: 1) explanation of the key environmental and storm-scale processes that lead to PS MCSs, 2) explanation of how the fundamental processes in LS and PS MCSs change when convection is elevated, 3) explanation of the role of three-dimensionality in convective organization, and 4) improved skills and scientific abilities among both enrolled and college-bound future scientists. Collectively, these outcomes will improve the predictability of convective organization and will strengthen the next generation of scientists who work on these problems. Integration of Research and Education: The MESO program will generate web-based outreach tools, providing a long-term means for meteorological education. The MESO program will require enrolled students to understand the funded research and to use it as a tool for outreach to non-meteorologists, both educating the outreach audience and honing the scientific communication and computing skills of the enrolled students. Local secondary students will learn about scientific thinking, research, and careers, in addition to useful information about local mesoscale weather. The PI will incorporate research results into his undergraduate and graduate courses. Additionally, the MESO recruitment materials will specifically target women and minorities.Broad Dissemination of Results: MESO will create public news releases of findings in lay terms, accompanied by web-based modules. The secondary school component of MESO will disseminate results in a rigorous yet understandable way to students who will be recruited to enter the science fields. Finally, in addition to publishing results in high quality journals, the PI strongly encourages his graduate students to present results at conferences and to forecast offices.Benefits to Society: Society will benefit from improved forecasts of hazardous weather and precipitation associated with non-traditional MCSs, as well as from a stronger, more diverse population of college scientists with enhanced communication abilities. Nebraskans will also benefit from enhanced understanding of weather information owing to MESO.