CAREER: Integrated Studies of Recurring, Non-Traditional Mesoscale Convective Systems

本研究的目标是确定的机制，管理的组织和维护的经常性的，非传统的中尺度对流系统（MCS），通过使用数值模拟，观测分析，和一个综合的教育计划-气象教育和中学推广（“MESO”）。 MCS在农业上至关重要的大平原产生了大部分温暖季节的降雨，以及广泛的危险天气。 最近的工作揭示了两个经常出现的MCS结构，但人们对它们的了解很少-具有领先层状（“LS”）和平行层状（“PS”）降水的对流线-这两种结构都经常造成山洪暴发。 虽然LS系统的发展和维护的基本机制已被调查，他们仍然不清楚PS系统以及升高（非表面为基础的）MCS。 这种知识的缺乏是重要的，因为如果没有知识，通过这些反复出现的组织模式预测降水和危险天气的能力就不可能提高。 这项工作是创新的，因为它提供了一个综合的方法来解决一个没有得到足够重视的问题，并在这样做的过程中，试图通过MESO计划培训注册和未来的科学家。 这项工作的成果将是：1）解释导致PS MCSs的关键环境和风暴尺度过程，2）解释当对流升高时LS和PS MCSs的基本过程如何变化，3）解释三维对流组织中的作用，以及4）提高入学和大学未来科学家的技能和科学能力。 总的来说，这些成果将提高对流组织的可预测性，并将加强研究这些问题的下一代科学家。 研究与教育的结合：MESO计划将产生基于网络的推广工具，为气象教育提供长期手段。 MESO计划将要求入学的学生了解资助的研究，并将其用作与非气象学家进行外联的工具，既教育外联受众，又磨练入学学生的科学沟通和计算技能。 当地中学生将学习科学思维，研究和职业，除了有关当地中尺度天气的有用信息。 PI将把研究成果纳入他的本科和研究生课程。 此外，教育、体育和体育事务办公室的招聘材料将专门针对妇女和少数民族。 MESO的中学部分将以严格但可理解的方式向将被招募进入科学领域的学生传播结果。 最后，除了在高质量的期刊上发表研究结果外，PI还强烈鼓励他的研究生在会议上和预报办公室展示结果。对社会的好处：社会将受益于与非传统MCS相关的危险天气和降水预报的改进，以及更强大，更多样化的大学科学家群体，他们具有增强的沟通能力。 内布拉斯加人也将受益于MESO对天气信息的更好理解。

The goal of this research is to determine the mechanisms governing the organization and maintenance of recurring, non-traditional mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) by using numerical simulations, observational analyses, and an integrated educational program -- Meteorological Education and Secondary School Outreach ("MESO"). MCSs produce much of the warm season rainfall in the agriculturally vital Great Plains, as well as widespread hazardous weather. Recent work has revealed two recurring MCS structures that are poorly understood -convective lines with leading stratiform ("LS") and with parallel stratiform ("PS") precipitation -both of which frequently produce flash flooding. Although the elemental mechanisms for development and maintenance of LS systems have been investigated, they are still unclear for PS systems as well as for elevated (not surface-based) MCSs. This lack of knowledge is important because, without it, the ability to forecast precipitation and hazardous weather from these recurring organizational modes is unlikely to improve.Intellectual Merit of the Proposed Activity: The work is innovative because it provides an integrated approach to a problem that has received insufficient attention, and in doing so seeks to train enrolled and prospective scientists through the MESO program. The outcomes of this work will be: 1) explanation of the key environmental and storm-scale processes that lead to PS MCSs, 2) explanation of how the fundamental processes in LS and PS MCSs change when convection is elevated, 3) explanation of the role of three-dimensionality in convective organization, and 4) improved skills and scientific abilities among both enrolled and college-bound future scientists. Collectively, these outcomes will improve the predictability of convective organization and will strengthen the next generation of scientists who work on these problems. Integration of Research and Education: The MESO program will generate web-based outreach tools, providing a long-term means for meteorological education. The MESO program will require enrolled students to understand the funded research and to use it as a tool for outreach to non-meteorologists, both educating the outreach audience and honing the scientific communication and computing skills of the enrolled students. Local secondary students will learn about scientific thinking, research, and careers, in addition to useful information about local mesoscale weather. The PI will incorporate research results into his undergraduate and graduate courses. Additionally, the MESO recruitment materials will specifically target women and minorities.Broad Dissemination of Results: MESO will create public news releases of findings in lay terms, accompanied by web-based modules. The secondary school component of MESO will disseminate results in a rigorous yet understandable way to students who will be recruited to enter the science fields. Finally, in addition to publishing results in high quality journals, the PI strongly encourages his graduate students to present results at conferences and to forecast offices.Benefits to Society: Society will benefit from improved forecasts of hazardous weather and precipitation associated with non-traditional MCSs, as well as from a stronger, more diverse population of college scientists with enhanced communication abilities. Nebraskans will also benefit from enhanced understanding of weather information owing to MESO.