CAREER: A Dynamic-Stochastic Approach to Rainfall and Flood Frequency Analysis Across Scales

职业生涯:跨尺度降雨和洪水频率分析的动态随机方法

基本信息

  • 批准号:
    1749638
  • 负责人:
  • 金额:
    $ 50.77万
  • 依托单位:
  • 依托单位国家:
    美国
  • 项目类别:
    Continuing Grant
  • 财政年份:
    2018
  • 资助国家:
    美国
  • 起止时间:
    2018-03-15 至 2025-02-28
  • 项目状态:
    未结题

项目摘要

Floods arise from the interactions between rainfall and ground conditions such as soil moisture and river channel dynamics. Yet, floods can also be described as a collection of random processes using statistics in addition to physical modeling.The relationship between flood severity and likelihood ("flood frequency analysis") has become a centerpiece in flood risk management practice. Changes in land use due to urbanization and climate variability implies that existing data and methods may no longer be valid. Meanwhile, study of the links between dynamic and statistical behavior of floods has been hindered by the lack of long-term, high-resolution observations of rainfall, soil moisture, and streamflow. This leaves us with limited understanding of how factors such as soil moisture and river channel dynamics modulate extreme rainfall to produce long-term flood frequency. This research presents a hybrid approach that uses recent advances in hydrometeorological observations, data processing approaches, models, and theory to better understand floods in a changing world. It also proposes several innovative education and outreach initiatives that will reach K-12, undergraduate and graduate students, and instructors using a combination of physical-virtual active learning tools, interactive web-based "apps," and lesson modules to reinforce learning and assess outcomes.The research will advance understanding of the role of four-dimensional (surface rainfall rate, time, and x,y spatial coordinates) storm structure as a driver of rainfall and flood frequency. The first objective focuses on regional geospatial rainfall structure and its linkages to rainfall and flood frequencies and trends. The second objective focuses on the physical drivers of flood frequency including rainfall, soil moisture, and their interactions. The principal inveatigatgor will use stochastic-dynamic modeling to establish the cross-scale links between flood severity and frequency that have thus far proven elusive. The proposed work will advance understanding of flood variability at multiple, coupled scales and provides tools that leverage modern computing power, regional high-resolution rainfall observations, and distributed computational watershed models. Using a framework for physically-based flood frequency analysis, this research will provide better insights into underlying drivers and their links to nonstationary flood frequency and severity. This research has an education/outreach component to train a diverse and "data literate" generation of professionals able to create a flood-resilient nation. Activities and teaching modules will also improve data literacy and geospatial understanding of flood hydrometeorology and the water cycle among a range of audiences including UW-Madison students, K-12 science fair attendees, high school science teachers and students, water resources practitioners, and the public. These initiatives are motivated by recent research showing that diverse teaching approaches including group activities, technology, and real world examples can reinforce learning and attract underrepresented groups to STEM. The proposed work will involve graduate students, undergraduates, and high school educators directly in the development of education and outreach products.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.
洪水是由降雨与土壤湿度和河道动态等地面条件之间的相互作用引起的。然而,洪水也可以被描述为一个集合的随机过程,使用统计学除了物理建模。洪水的严重性和可能性之间的关系(“洪水频率分析”)已成为洪水风险管理实践的核心。由于城市化和气候变化而引起的土地使用变化意味着现有的数据和方法可能不再有效。与此同时,由于缺乏对降雨、土壤湿度和径流的长期、高分辨率观测,对洪水动态和统计行为之间联系的研究受到阻碍。这使得我们对土壤湿度和河道动态等因素如何调节极端降雨以产生长期洪水频率的理解有限。这项研究提出了一种混合方法,利用水文气象观测,数据处理方法,模型和理论的最新进展,以更好地了解洪水在不断变化的世界。它还提出了几项创新的教育和推广计划,将接触K-12,本科生和研究生,以及教师,使用物理虚拟主动学习工具,交互式基于网络的“应用程序”和课程模块的组合,以加强学习和评估结果。(表面降雨率、时间和x,y空间坐标)暴雨结构作为降雨和洪水频率的驱动因素。第一个目标侧重于区域地理空间降雨结构及其与降雨和洪水频率和趋势的联系。第二个目标侧重于洪水频率的物理驱动因素,包括降雨,土壤湿度,以及它们之间的相互作用。主要的研究者将使用随机动态模型来建立洪水严重程度和频率之间的跨尺度联系,这是迄今为止被证明是难以捉摸的。拟议的工作将促进对多个耦合尺度洪水变化的理解,并提供利用现代计算能力、区域高分辨率降雨观测和分布式计算流域模型的工具。使用物理为基础的洪水频率分析的框架,这项研究将提供更好的洞察潜在的驱动程序和他们的联系,非平稳洪水频率和严重性。这项研究有一个教育/外联组成部分,以培训一个多样化的和“数据识字”的一代专业人员,能够建立一个洪水抗灾能力的国家。活动和教学模块还将提高洪水水文气象学和水循环的数据素养和地理空间理解,包括威斯康星大学麦迪逊分校的学生,K-12科学博览会的与会者,高中科学教师和学生,水资源从业者和公众。这些举措的动机是最近的研究表明,包括小组活动、技术和真实的世界示例在内的多样化教学方法可以加强学习并吸引代表性不足的群体学习STEM。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命,并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估,被认为值得支持。

项目成果

期刊论文数量(10)
专著数量(0)
科研奖励数量(0)
会议论文数量(0)
专利数量(0)
U.S. Hydrologic Design Standards Insufficient Due to Large Increases in Frequency of Rainfall Extremes
由于极端降雨频率大幅增加,美国水文设计标准不足
  • DOI:
    10.1029/2019gl083235
  • 发表时间:
    2019
  • 期刊:
  • 影响因子:
    5.2
  • 作者:
    Wright, Daniel B.;Bosma, Christopher D.;Lopez‐Cantu, Tania
  • 通讯作者:
    Lopez‐Cantu, Tania
Using Physically Based Synthetic Peak Flows to Assess Local and Regional Flood Frequency Analysis Methods
使用基于物理的合成峰值流量来评估当地和区域洪水频率分析方法
  • DOI:
    10.1029/2019wr024827
  • 发表时间:
    2019
  • 期刊:
  • 影响因子:
    5.4
  • 作者:
    Perez, Gabriel;Mantilla, Ricardo;Krajewski, Witold F.;Wright, Daniel B.
  • 通讯作者:
    Wright, Daniel B.
A storm-centered multivariate modeling of extreme precipitation frequency based on atmospheric water balance
基于大气水平衡的以风暴为中心的极端降水频率多元模型
  • DOI:
    10.5194/hess-26-5241-2022
  • 发表时间:
    2022
  • 期刊:
  • 影响因子:
    6.3
  • 作者:
    Liu, Yuan;Wright, Daniel B.
  • 通讯作者:
    Wright, Daniel B.
Diverse Physical Processes Drive Upper‐Tail Flood Quantiles in the US Mountain West
不同的物理过程导致美国西部山区的上尾洪水分位数
  • DOI:
    10.1029/2022gl098855
  • 发表时间:
    2022
  • 期刊:
  • 影响因子:
    5.2
  • 作者:
    Yu, Guo;Wright, Daniel B.;Davenport, Frances V.
  • 通讯作者:
    Davenport, Frances V.
Resilience to Extreme Rainfall Starts with Science
抵御极端降雨的能力始于科学
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Daniel Wright其他文献

Eddy-permitting simulations of the sub-polar North Atlantic: impact of the model bias on water mass properties and circulation
  • DOI:
    10.1007/s10236-010-0320-4
  • 发表时间:
    2010-08-12
  • 期刊:
  • 影响因子:
    1.900
  • 作者:
    Jieshun Zhu;Entcho Demirov;Fred Dupont;Daniel Wright
  • 通讯作者:
    Daniel Wright
An investigation into the effectiveness of Dynamic Interpersonal Therapy (DIT) as a treatment for depression and anxiety in IAPT
动态人际关系疗法 (DIT) 治疗 IAPT 抑郁和焦虑的有效性调查
  • DOI:
  • 发表时间:
    2015
  • 期刊:
  • 影响因子:
    0
  • 作者:
    Daniel Wright;D. Abrahams
  • 通讯作者:
    D. Abrahams
Fast versus gradual adaptation of soft monthly contact lenses in neophyte wearers
  • DOI:
    10.1016/j.clae.2021.101469
  • 发表时间:
    2022-08-01
  • 期刊:
  • 影响因子:
  • 作者:
    James S. Wolffsohn;Neema Ghorbani-Mojarrad;Marta Vianya-Estopa;Manbir Nagra;Byki Huntjens;Louise Terry;Laura Elaine Sweeney;Debarun Dutta;Mahesh Raj Joshi;Daniel Wright;Heather Bruce;Emily Hallam;Louise Jolly;Ying Bing Chung;Joanne Ru En Tsen;Anya Bishop;Rhona Davison;Carole Maldonado-Codina; members of the British and Irish University and College Contact Lens Educators (BUCCLE) group
  • 通讯作者:
    members of the British and Irish University and College Contact Lens Educators (BUCCLE) group
Living life or denying death? Towards an understanding of the bucket list
继续生活还是否认死亡?
  • DOI:
  • 发表时间:
    2022
  • 期刊:
  • 影响因子:
    0
  • 作者:
    Santa Zascerinska;R. Sharpley;Daniel Wright
  • 通讯作者:
    Daniel Wright
Genetic isolation by distance reveals restricted dispersal across a range of life histories: implications for biodiversity conservation planning across highly variable marine environments
按距离进行的遗传隔离揭示了一系列生命史中的有限传播:对高度变化的海洋环境中生物多样性保护规划的影响
  • DOI:
    10.1111/ddi.12302
  • 发表时间:
    2015
  • 期刊:
  • 影响因子:
    4.6
  • 作者:
    Daniel Wright;J. Bishop;C. Matthee;S. Heyden
  • 通讯作者:
    S. Heyden

Daniel Wright的其他文献

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{{ truncateString('Daniel Wright', 18)}}的其他基金

Collaborative Research: Understanding Urban Resilience to Pluvial Floods Using Reduced-Order Modeling
合作研究:使用降阶模型了解城市对洪涝灾害的抵御能力
  • 批准号:
    2053358
  • 财政年份:
    2022
  • 资助金额:
    $ 50.77万
  • 项目类别:
    Standard Grant
Collaborative Research: Adverse Multiphase Flow Interactions in Urban Stormwater Systems
合作研究:城市雨水系统中的不利多相流相互作用
  • 批准号:
    2049094
  • 财政年份:
    2021
  • 资助金额:
    $ 50.77万
  • 项目类别:
    Continuing Grant
International Research Fellowship Program: Organic Microlasers for Photonics
国际研究奖学金计划:光子学有机微型激光器
  • 批准号:
    0202631
  • 财政年份:
    2002
  • 资助金额:
    $ 50.77万
  • 项目类别:
    Fellowship Award

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