Collaborative proposal: Combining NEON and remotely sensed habitats to determine climate impacts on community dynamics

环境变化对生物群落的影响将取决于当地生境和物种之间的相互作用-由于每个物种直接对环境条件作出反应，因此它间接影响到与之相互作用的所有物种。物种间的相互作用使我们预测生物体对环境变化的反应的能力变得复杂，因为每个物种都在不同的尺度上经历栖息地的复杂性-从不会飞的昆虫到大型脊椎动物。目前的物种分布模型用于预测社区对气候的反应，预测物种彼此孤立，忽略了相互作用。这种研究方法将通过开发一种新的建模方法来推进生态预测方法，该方法分析了物种对气候，栖息地和彼此的综合反应。这项研究提供了一个框架，用于综合整个国家生态观测网络（氖）网络的环境和生物数据，科学界可以利用这个框架，将其与自己的分析相结合。该项目将通过公民协助识别动物图像来吸引公众。将向社区提供关于大型哺乳动物和来自氖站点的种子生产的新数据，并将通过一个网站提供社区对气候反应的预测。将举办一个讲习班，培训高级博士生、博士后、学术和机构科学家使用建模工具和氖数据。这项研究将培训两名研究生，包括一个科学传播项目，并涉及四名本科生的实地考察。这项研究将综合分类学上不同的社区，监测氖（地面甲虫，维管植物，小型哺乳动物，鸟类）与新的数据桅杆，大型哺乳动物的调查。桅杆是与气候变化相互作用的几个栖息地变量之一。脉冲种子和果实生产的桅杆系统，从树木包括脊椎动物消费者，以及与节肢动物的竞争对手和脊椎动物捕食者的间接相互作用的重点。将利用遥感图像和氖空中观测站来确定生境多样性的特征。新的采样在氖网站的大型哺乳动物和种子生产将增加关键组成部分，使我们能够评估社区动态的桅杆树系统在广泛的规模。该分析的结果将用于预测社区的变化和重组，包括预测和归因的气候风险的物种和栖息地，以及它是如何在物种群体之间共享。这个奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并已被认为是值得通过评估使用基金会的智力价值和更广泛的影响审查标准的支持。

The impact of environmental change on biological communities will depend on interactions involving the local habitat and species that interact with one another - as each species responds directly to environmental conditions, it indirectly affects all of the species with which it interacts. Species interactions complicate our ability to predict organismal response to environmental change, because each species experiences habitat complexity at a different scale - from flightless insects to large vertebrates. Current species distribution models used to anticipate community responses to climate predict species in isolation from one another, ignoring interactions. This research approach will advance ecological forecasting methods by a developing a new modeling approach that analyzes the combined responses of species to climate, habitat, and one another. The study offers a framework for synthesizing environmental and biological data across the National Ecological Observation Network (NEON) network, one that can be exploited by the scientific community for integration with their own analyses. The project will engage the public through citizen-assisted identification of animal images. New data on large mammals and seed production from NEON sites will be made available to the community, and forecasts of community responses to climate will be made available through a web site. A workshop will be offered for training of advanced doctoral students, postdocs, and academic and agency scientists in the use of the modeling tools and NEON data. The study will train two graduate students, including a program in science communication, and involve four undergraduate students in fieldwork. This research will synthesize taxonomically diverse communities that are monitored in NEON (ground beetles, vascular plants, small mammals, birds) with new data on mast, and large mammal surveys. Mast is one of several habitat variables that interacts with climate variation. A focus on the mast system of pulsed seed and fruit production from trees includes vertebrate consumers, as well as indirect interactions with arthropod competitors and vertebrate predators. Remotely-sensed imagery and the NEON airborne observatory will be used to characterize habitat diversity. New sampling at NEON sites for large mammals and seed production will add key components that allow us to evaluate the community dynamics of masting tree systems at broad scales. Results of this analysis will be used to forecast community change and reorganization, including prediction and attribution of climate risk by species and habitat and how it is shared across species groups.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.