NSFGEO-NERC Caldera-forming eruption-generated tsunamis

NSFGEO-NERC 火山口形成喷发引发的海啸

• 批准号: 1756665
• 负责人: Stephan Grilli
• 金额: $ 48.87万
• 依托单位: University of Rhode Island
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2018
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2018-03-01 至 2023-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1756665&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: NSFGEO; NERC; Caldera; forming; eruption

Tsunamis create major geohazards for populated coastal areas, whose mitigation requires understanding of the generation mechanisms. Numerical models of tsunami generation and propagations are used in support of warning systems and for the creation of inundation maps for hazard assessment. Tsunamis can be attributed to seismic (i.e., earthquakes and submarine landslides) or non-seismic sources (i.e., volcanic eruptions). The latter are prevalent in some areas around the world (e.g., Aleutian arc for US West Coast). Our understanding of tsunami generation from mechanisms such as earthquakes, landslides, and volcanic collapse, has largely resulted from devastating events (e.g., Papua New Guinea, 1998; Indian Ocean, 2004; Japan, 2011), which combined have caused over 300,000 fatalities and US $30B of damage. Due to lack of a major recent event, eruption generated tsunamis (the focus of this study) remain largely under-studied. In this multi-disciplinary study, the US/UK team will perform collaborative field and modeling research, to improve our understanding of tsunamis generated by volcanic eruptions, especially those from large-volume, caldera-forming events close to the sea, which are among the most devastating geohazards. Work will focus on the 1883 Krakatau eruption-generated tsunami, which caused over 33,000 fatalities in Indonesia. Although this eruption was well studied, there is still controversy over the tsunami generation mechanism and, since 1883, apart from a surge of interest during its 100-year anniversary, there has been little new data, which would be a basis for a major project on the event. The new understanding/modeling resulting from this project will improve tsunami hazard assessment and warning from such sources, and could improve operational tsunami hazard assessment and inundation mapping work as tsunami warning systems for non-seismic sources with significant implication in population safety. Project results will be disseminated to the scientific and broader communities at professional conferences, in peer-reviewed journals, by building an extensive website (with project metadata, news, podcasts/videos, and auxiliary information), and through the visualization of scientific data (targeting a K-12 audience). A workshop will be organized in Indonesia at the outset to engage local people and scientists (support from Newton funds is being sought). There will be active collaboration with colleagues at Greek/Caribbean/Mediterranean-based institutions/organizations, facing similar eruption-tsunami risks.As a large-volume, caldera-forming event Krakatau is representative of similar other well studied historical events (e.g., 3500BP Santorini and 7500BP Kikai), and includes diverse tsunami generating mechanisms: pyroclastic density current (PDC) discharges into the sea, caldera collapse, and explosions. It also has an exceptional eruption and tsunami record from observations at the time. The objectives of the study are to: 1) apply improved numerical models of tsunamis from volcanic eruption mechanisms (including seafloor deposits), mainly PDC and caldera collapse; 2) perform new field surveys of on land tsunami sediment deposits, to discriminate individual tsunami events and their impact; 3) perform new PDC field surveys, complementing a pilot offshore seismic database showing that individual PDC flows can be identified and mapped, and their runouts and volumes estimated; 4) use these estimates to understand physical properties of PDCs as they enter the sea; and 5) use the new data (sediment, PDC) as a basis for applying the new numerical tsunami models. Tsunami simulations will be carried out iteratively by comparing model outputs (inundation limits, runups; PDC deposits/runouts) with historical documentation of impacted areas along the coasts of Sumatra and Java, and both old and newly acquired PDC and sediment deposit field survey data.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

海啸对沿海人口稠密地区造成重大地质灾害，减轻这些灾害需要了解海啸的产生机制。海啸生成和传播的数值模型被用于支持警报系统和制作灾害评估的洪水图。海啸可以归因于地震（即，地震和海底滑坡）或非地震源（即，火山爆发）。后者在世界上的一些地区很普遍（例如，阿留申弧（美国西海岸）。 我们对地震、山体滑坡和火山崩塌等机制产生海啸的理解，在很大程度上是由于破坏性事件（例如，巴布亚新几内亚，1998年;印度洋，2004年;日本，2011年），这些灾害共造成30多万人死亡和300亿美元的损失。 由于缺乏最近的重大事件，火山爆发引发的海啸（本研究的重点）在很大程度上仍然没有得到充分研究。在这项多学科研究中，美国/英国团队将进行合作现场和建模研究，以提高我们对火山爆发产生的海啸的理解，特别是那些来自靠近大海的大体积火山口形成事件的海啸，这是最具破坏性的地质灾害。工作重点将放在1883年喀拉喀托火山爆发引发的海啸上，该海啸在印度尼西亚造成33 000多人死亡。虽然这次火山爆发得到了很好的研究，但对海啸的生成机制仍然存在争议，自1883年以来，除了在其100周年纪念期间引起的兴趣激增外，几乎没有新的数据，这将成为关于该事件的重大项目的基础。该项目产生的新的理解/建模将改善海啸危险评估和这些来源的预警，并可以改善海啸危险评估和洪水测绘工作，作为对人口安全有重大影响的非地震来源的海啸预警系统。项目成果将通过专业会议、同行评审期刊、建立一个广泛的网站（包含项目元数据、新闻、播客/视频和辅助信息）以及通过科学数据的可视化（针对K-12受众）传播给科学界和更广泛的社区。一开始将在印度尼西亚举办一个讲习班，让当地人民和科学家参与（正在寻求牛顿基金的支助）。将与希腊/加勒比海/地中海的机构/组织的同事积极合作，面临类似的火山爆发-海啸风险。作为一个大规模的火山口形成事件，喀拉喀托火山口形成事件是其他类似的经过充分研究的历史事件的代表（例如，3500 BP圣托里尼和7500 BP Kikai），并包括不同的海啸生成机制：火山碎屑密度流（PDC）排入大海，破火山口崩溃，爆炸。从当时的观察来看，它也有一个特殊的火山爆发和海啸记录。本研究的目的是：1）应用改进的火山喷发机制海啸数值模型（包括海底沉积物），主要是PDC和破火山口坍塌; 2）对陆地海啸沉积物进行新的实地调查，以区分个别海啸事件及其影响; 3）进行新的PDC现场勘测，补充试验性海上地震数据库，表明可以识别和绘制单独的PDC流，以及它们的流失和体积估计; 4）使用这些估计来了解PDC进入海洋时的物理特性; 5）使用新数据（沉积物，PDC）作为应用新的海啸数值模型的基础。海啸模拟将通过比较模型输出反复进行（淹没界限、水位上升; PDC沉积物/流出物），以及沿苏门答腊和爪哇海岸沿着受影响地区的历史记录，以及新旧获得的PDC和沉积物存款实地调查数据。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查进行评估，被认为值得支持的搜索.

项目成果

Modeling of the Dec. 22nd 2018 Anak Krakatau volcano lateral collapse and tsunami based on recent field surveys: Comparison with observed tsunami impact

• DOI: 10.1016/j.margeo.2021.106566
• 发表时间: 2021-10
• 期刊: Marine Geology
• 影响因子: 2.9
• 作者: S. Grilli;Cheng Zhang;J. Kirby;A. Grilli;D. Tappin;S. Watt;J. Hunt;A. Novellino;S. Engwell;Muhammad Edo Marshal Nurshal;M. Abdurrachman;M. Cassidy;A. Madden-nadeau;S. Day

Modelling of the tsunami from the December 22, 2018 lateral collapse of Anak Krakatau volcano in the Sunda Straits, Indonesia

• DOI: 10.1038/s41598-019-48327-6
• 发表时间: 2019-08-16
• 期刊: SCIENTIFIC REPORTS
• 影响因子: 4.6
• 作者: Grilli, Stephan T.;Tappin, David R.;Muin, Muslim
• 通讯作者: Muin, Muslim

Downward-propagating eruption following vent unloading implies no direct magmatic trigger for the 2018 lateral collapse of Anak Krakatau

• DOI: 10.1016/j.epsl.2021.117332
• 发表时间: 2021-12
• 期刊: Earth and Planetary Science Letters
• 影响因子: 5.3
• 作者: K. Cutler;S. Watt;M. Cassidy;A. Madden-nadeau;S. Engwell;M. Abdurrachman;Muhammad Edo Marshal Nurshal;D. Tappin;S. Carey;A. Novellino;C. Hayer;J. Hunt;S. Day;S. Grilli;I. A. Kurniawan;N. Kartadinata

NUMERICAL SIMULATION OF TSUNAMI IMPACT FROM THE 1/15/22 ERUPTION OF THE HUNGA TONGA - HUNGA HA’APAI VOLCANO

• DOI: 10.9753/icce.v37.management.85
• 发表时间: 2023-09
• 期刊: Coastal Engineering Proceedings
• 作者: Stephan Grilli;Maryam Mohammadpour;Annette Grilli;Cheng Zhang;Dave Tappin;Alessandro Novellino;Sebastien Watt