Collaborative Research: Development, Experimental Validation and Case Studies for the Next Generation of Landslide Tsunami Models for Coastal Hazard Mitigation

海啸对人口密集的沿海地区造成重大地质灾害。减轻海啸风险对社会来说很重要，需要准确的震源预测和建模，包括在一些地区（如美国东海岸）普遍存在的非地震近场震源，如潜艇群故障（smf），以及使用传播模型进行运行/淹没测绘。海啸淹没地图可用于制定或修订分区规划，使沿海社区更具抵御能力。本项目开发的方法将改进对地面滑坡（起源于水位以上）和smf的海啸危害评估和预警，并可作为此类分析的新标准，用于实际海啸危害评估和淹没测绘工作（例如，在美国国家海啸减灾计划的支持下进行的工作），以及用于非地震近场震源的新海啸预警系统；这最终可以挽救生命。项目团队将与外国合作伙伴（法国马赛大学、英国邓迪大学和英国地质调查局）合作，开发、实施和实验验证下一代可变形山体滑坡及其引发海啸的模型。将考虑进入水柱的陆上滑动以及源自水下的smf。项目团队将研究一系列滑坡流变学，尤其对膨胀颗粒流和破碎块状粘性土层感兴趣。现代计算方法，如基于gpgpu的晶格玻尔兹曼方案，也将被研究，目的是提高模型效率，使模型能够在近场事件中执行比实时更快的模拟，以便发出早期预警。在这方面，将根据正在进行的高频雷达和水声探测方法的并行努力，研究海底运动和表面波响应的模式预测。与英国地质调查局合作，新模型将应用于测量海啸影响的历史滑坡海啸案例研究（巴布亚新几内亚1998年、Unimak 1946年和里特岛1888年事件），以便更好地理解和模拟滑坡海啸的产生，并制定可用于模型验证的现场基准。

Tsunamis create major geohazards for highly populated coastal areas. Mitigating tsunami risks is important for society and requires accurate source forecasting and modeling, including non-seismic near-field sources such as Submarine Mass Failures (SMFs), which are prevalent in some areas (such as the US East Coast), and performing runup/inundation mapping using propagation models. Tsunami inundation maps can be used to develop or revise zoning plans in order to make coastal communities more resilient. The methods developed in this project will improve tsunami hazard assessment and warning from subaerial slides (originating above water level) and SMFs, and could be adopted as the new standard for such analyses, in operational tsunami hazard assessment and inundation mapping work (e.g., such as done under the auspice of the US National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation program), and in new tsunami warning systems for non-seismic near-field sources; this could ultimately save lives. The project team will collaborate with foreign partners (at the University of Marseille (France), University of Dundee (UK), and British Geological Survey (BGS, UK)) to develop, implement, and experimentally validate the next generation models for deformable landslides and resulting tsunami generation. Subaerial slides entering the water column as well as SMFs originating underwater will be considered. The project team will study a range of slide rheologies, with particular interest in dilatational granular flows and in fragmenting, blocky cohesive soil layers.te Modern computational methods such as GPGPU-based Lattice Boltzmann schemes, will also be investigated with an aim to improving model efficiency and making models able to perform faster-than-real time simulations during near-field events, in order to issue early warning. In this respect, model predictions of seafloor motion and surface wave response will be studied in light of ongoing parallel efforts on High Frequency Radar and hydroacoustic detection methodologies. In collaboration with the BGS, new models will be applied to historical landslide tsunami case studies, where tsunami impact was measured (PNG 1998, Unimak 1946, and Ritter Island 1888 events), in order to achieve both a better understanding and modeling of landslide tsunami generation, as well as developing field benchmarks that can be used for model validation.