Collaborative Research: Development, Experimental Validation and Case Studies for the Next Generation of Landslide Tsunami Models for Coastal Hazard Mitigation

海啸对人口稠密的沿海地区造成重大地质灾害。 减轻海啸风险对社会很重要，需要准确的震源预测和建模，包括非地震近场震源，如潜艇质量故障（SMF），这在某些地区（如美国东海岸）很普遍，并使用传播模型进行助跑/淹没映射。 海啸淹没地图可用于制定或修订分区计划，以提高沿海社区的抗灾能力。 本项目中开发的方法将改善海啸危险评估和来自陆上滑坡（源于水面以上）和SMF的警报，并可在海啸危险评估和洪水测绘工作中作为此类分析的新标准（例如，例如在美国国家海啸灾害减轻计划的指导下完成的），以及用于非地震近场源的新海啸警报系统;这最终可以挽救生命。该项目团队将与外国合作伙伴（马赛大学（法国）、邓迪大学（英国）和英国地质调查局（BGS，英国））合作，开发、实施和实验验证下一代可变形滑坡和由此产生的海啸模型。 将考虑进入水柱的水下滑坡以及源自水下的SMF。 该项目小组将研究一系列的滑坡流变学，特别是对粘性颗粒流和破碎的块状粘性土层感兴趣。还将研究基于GPGPU的格子Boltzmann方案等现代计算方法，以提高模型效率，并使模型能够在近场事件期间进行比真实的时间更快的模拟，以便发出预警。 在这方面，将根据目前正在进行的高频雷达和水声探测方法的并行工作，研究海底运动和表面波反应的模型预测。 与英国地质调查局合作，新模型将应用于历史滑坡海啸案例研究，其中测量了海啸影响（PNG 1998年，Unimak 1946年和Ritter Island 1888年事件），以便更好地理解和建模滑坡海啸的产生，以及开发可用于模型验证的现场基准。

Tsunamis create major geohazards for highly populated coastal areas. Mitigating tsunami risks is important for society and requires accurate source forecasting and modeling, including non-seismic near-field sources such as Submarine Mass Failures (SMFs), which are prevalent in some areas (such as the US East Coast), and performing runup/inundation mapping using propagation models. Tsunami inundation maps can be used to develop or revise zoning plans in order to make coastal communities more resilient. The methods developed in this project will improve tsunami hazard assessment and warning from subaerial slides (originating above water level) and SMFs, and could be adopted as the new standard for such analyses, in operational tsunami hazard assessment and inundation mapping work (e.g., such as done under the auspice of the US National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation program), and in new tsunami warning systems for non-seismic near-field sources; this could ultimately save lives. The project team will collaborate with foreign partners (at the University of Marseille (France), University of Dundee (UK), and British Geological Survey (BGS, UK)) to develop, implement, and experimentally validate the next generation models for deformable landslides and resulting tsunami generation. Subaerial slides entering the water column as well as SMFs originating underwater will be considered. The project team will study a range of slide rheologies, with particular interest in dilatational granular flows and in fragmenting, blocky cohesive soil layers.te Modern computational methods such as GPGPU-based Lattice Boltzmann schemes, will also be investigated with an aim to improving model efficiency and making models able to perform faster-than-real time simulations during near-field events, in order to issue early warning. In this respect, model predictions of seafloor motion and surface wave response will be studied in light of ongoing parallel efforts on High Frequency Radar and hydroacoustic detection methodologies. In collaboration with the BGS, new models will be applied to historical landslide tsunami case studies, where tsunami impact was measured (PNG 1998, Unimak 1946, and Ritter Island 1888 events), in order to achieve both a better understanding and modeling of landslide tsunami generation, as well as developing field benchmarks that can be used for model validation.