Collaborative Research: Development, Experimental Validation and Case Studies for the Next Generation of Landslide Tsunami Models for Coastal Hazard Mitigation

海啸给人口稠密的沿海地区造成重大地质灾害。 减轻海啸风险对社会很重要，需要准确的震源预测和建模，包括非地震近场震源，例如在某些地区（例如美国东海岸）普遍存在的海底集体故障 (SMF)，并使用传播模型进行启动/淹没测绘。 海啸淹没地图可用于制定或修订分区计划，以使沿海社区更具复原力。 该项目开发的方法将改进来自地面滑坡（源自水面以上）和SMF的海啸灾害评估和预警，并可在海啸灾害评估和淹没测绘工作（例如，在美国国家海啸减灾计划的支持下完成）以及非地震近场源的新海啸预警系统中采用作为此类分析的新标准；这最终可以挽救生命。该项目团队将与外国合作伙伴（马赛大学（法国）、邓迪大学（英国）和英国地质调查局（BGS，英国））合作，开发、实施和实验验证下一代可变形滑坡和由此产生的海啸模型。 将考虑进入水柱的地面滑坡以及源自水下的 SMF。 该项目团队将研究一系列滑动流变学，特别关注膨胀颗粒流和破碎、块状粘性土层。还将研究现代计算方法，例如基于 GPGPU 的格子玻尔兹曼方案，旨在提高模型效率并使模型能够在近场事件期间执行比实时更快的模拟，以便发出早期预警。 在这方面，将根据高频雷达和水声探测方法正在进行的并行工作来研究海底运动和表面波响应的模型预测。 与 BGS 合作，新模型将应用于历史滑坡海啸案例研究，测量海啸影响（巴布亚新几内亚 1998 年、乌尼马克 1946 年和里特岛 1888 年事件），以便更好地了解滑坡海啸的发生并对其进行建模，并开发可用于模型验证的现场基准。

Tsunamis create major geohazards for highly populated coastal areas. Mitigating tsunami risks is important for society and requires accurate source forecasting and modeling, including non-seismic near-field sources such as Submarine Mass Failures (SMFs), which are prevalent in some areas (such as the US East Coast), and performing runup/inundation mapping using propagation models. Tsunami inundation maps can be used to develop or revise zoning plans in order to make coastal communities more resilient. The methods developed in this project will improve tsunami hazard assessment and warning from subaerial slides (originating above water level) and SMFs, and could be adopted as the new standard for such analyses, in operational tsunami hazard assessment and inundation mapping work (e.g., such as done under the auspice of the US National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation program), and in new tsunami warning systems for non-seismic near-field sources; this could ultimately save lives. The project team will collaborate with foreign partners (at the University of Marseille (France), University of Dundee (UK), and British Geological Survey (BGS, UK)) to develop, implement, and experimentally validate the next generation models for deformable landslides and resulting tsunami generation. Subaerial slides entering the water column as well as SMFs originating underwater will be considered. The project team will study a range of slide rheologies, with particular interest in dilatational granular flows and in fragmenting, blocky cohesive soil layers.te Modern computational methods such as GPGPU-based Lattice Boltzmann schemes, will also be investigated with an aim to improving model efficiency and making models able to perform faster-than-real time simulations during near-field events, in order to issue early warning. In this respect, model predictions of seafloor motion and surface wave response will be studied in light of ongoing parallel efforts on High Frequency Radar and hydroacoustic detection methodologies. In collaboration with the BGS, new models will be applied to historical landslide tsunami case studies, where tsunami impact was measured (PNG 1998, Unimak 1946, and Ritter Island 1888 events), in order to achieve both a better understanding and modeling of landslide tsunami generation, as well as developing field benchmarks that can be used for model validation.