RAPID: A Longitudinal Assessment of Risk and Resilience in the Gulf of Mexico Following Hurricane Harvey

RAPID：飓风哈维后墨西哥湾风险和复原力的纵向评估

• 批准号: 1760484
• 负责人: Rajeev Ramchand
• 金额: $ 20万
• 依托单位: Rand Corporation
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2017
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2017-10-01 至 2019-09-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1760484&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: RAPID; Longitudinal; Assessment; Risk; Resilience

In late August 2017, Hurricane Harvey became the first major hurricane to make landfall in the United States in over a decade, wreaking havoc on Texas's coastal communities. This project researches how Texas residents who encountered the threat of the hurricane and its aftermath made decisions about how they would prepare for and respond to it. This project advances core missions of the National Science Foundation. This project does "promote the progress of science" by examining the human dimensions of disasters and is one of the only studies poised to gain insights from the same individuals shortly before and after a disaster. This project does "advance the national health, prosperity, and welfare" by providing insights into how disasters affect peoples' decision making and well-being and thereby informs policies to mitigate adverse effects. This research project extends an existing telephone survey administered originally to Gulf Coast residents in 2016 to investigate a range of health, social, and economic factors related to individual and community disaster resilience. The researchers re-contact respondents in Texas to collect a second wave of data that captures longitudinal evidence regarding the impact of Hurricane Harvey on risk perceptions as well as decision making about how to ameliorate post-disaster adversities. In the second wave of data collection, the research team combines questions from the original Wave 1 survey with new questions assessing people's hurricane preparations before Harvey, their exposures during Harvey, and their experiences immediately thereafter. In addition, data from both waves of the survey are merged with county-level variables that provide objective measures of hurricane exposure. Poised with both pre-and post-event data from the same individuals, the researchers pursue analyses to better understand behavioral, attitudinal, and other changes pre- to post-Hurricane Harvey. These analyses are a marked improvement from past research that typically has no baseline measures. Specifically, the team tests three hypotheses: (1) adverse outcomes are caused by increased exposure to the hurricane; (2) pre-hurricane conditions can amplify or suppress the effect of hurricane exposure on outcomes; and (3) specific subgroups are at increased risk of adverse outcomes in the wake of a disaster. The research addresses important limitations of prior studies in the domain of natural hazards in at least two ways:(1) by focusing on the human dimensions of disasters, particularly relating to issues beyond emergency response, and (2) by providing longitudinal data on how risk perceptions or other human experiences change in response to a disaster and how, consequently, people engage or do not engage in mitigation behaviors. The work will help to develop a realistic understanding of how people make decisions about hazards that affect the health, the well-being of communities, and the economy. Research that helps us better understand human disaster-related behavior may also inform policy debates about how best to build community resilience in the face of chronic exposure to trauma and stress.

2017年8月下旬，飓风哈维成为十多年来第一个登陆美国的大型飓风，对德克萨斯州的沿海社区造成严重破坏。该项目研究了德克萨斯州居民在遭遇飓风及其后果的威胁时如何决定他们将如何准备和应对它。该项目推进了美国国家科学基金会的核心任务。该项目通过研究灾害的人的方面确实“促进了科学的进步”，是为数不多的准备从灾害前后不久的同一个人那里获得见解的研究之一。该项目通过深入了解灾害如何影响人们的决策和福祉，从而为减轻不利影响的政策提供信息，从而“促进国家健康、繁荣和福利”。该研究项目扩展了2016年最初对墨西哥湾沿岸居民进行的现有电话调查，以调查与个人和社区抗灾能力相关的一系列健康，社会和经济因素。研究人员再次联系德克萨斯州的受访者，收集第二波数据，这些数据捕捉了有关飓风哈维对风险认知以及如何改善灾后逆境的决策影响的纵向证据。在第二波数据收集中，研究小组将原始第一波调查中的问题与新问题相结合，评估人们在哈维之前的飓风准备，哈维期间的暴露以及之后的经历。此外，两波调查的数据与县级变量合并，提供飓风风险的客观衡量标准。研究人员利用来自同一个人的事件前后数据进行分析，以更好地了解哈维飓风前后的行为，态度和其他变化。这些分析与过去通常没有基线测量的研究相比是一个显著的进步。具体来说，该团队测试了三个假设：（1）不良后果是由飓风暴露增加引起的;（2）飓风前的条件可以放大或抑制飓风暴露对结果的影响;（3）特定的亚组在灾难发生后不良后果的风险增加。该研究至少以两种方式解决了自然灾害领域先前研究的重要局限性：（1）通过关注灾害的人的方面，特别是与应急响应以外的问题有关的方面，以及（2）通过提供关于风险感知或其他人类经验如何在应对灾害时发生变化以及人们如何参与或不参与减灾行为的纵向数据。这项工作将有助于人们对影响健康、社区福祉和经济的危害做出现实的理解。有助于我们更好地理解人类灾害相关行为的研究也可能为政策辩论提供信息，讨论如何在长期遭受创伤和压力的情况下最好地建立社区复原力。

项目成果

Natech or natural? An analysis of hazard perceptions, institutional trust, and future storm worry following Hurricane Harvey

• DOI: 10.1007/s11069-020-03953-6
• 发表时间: 2020-04
• 期刊: Natural Hazards
• 影响因子: 3.7
• 作者: T. Slack;Vanessa Parks;Lynsay Ayer;Andrew M. Parker;Melissa L. Finucane;R. Ramchand

How disasters drive media channel preferences: Tracing news consumption before, during, and after Hurricane Harvey

灾难如何影响媒体渠道偏好：追踪飓风哈维之前、期间和之后的新闻消费

• DOI: 10.1111/1468-5973.12348
• 发表时间: 2021
• 期刊: Journal of Contingencies and Crisis Management
• 影响因子: 3.1
• 作者: Petrun Sayers, Elizabeth L.;Parker, Andrew M.;Seelam, Rachana;Finucane, Melissa L.
• 通讯作者: Finucane, Melissa L.