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MSB-FRA: Scaling fire size from local process to continental pattern

MSB-FRA：将火灾规模从局部过程扩展到大陆模式

基本信息

批准号：
1802453
负责人：
Ann Carla Staver
金额：
$ 103.5万
依托单位：
Yale University
依托单位国家：
美国
项目类别：
Standard Grant
财政年份：
2018
资助国家：
美国
起止时间：
2018-08-01 至 2023-07-31
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1802453&HistoricalAwards=false
关键词：
MSB FRA Scaling fire size

项目摘要

Fire is a fundamental process in the Earth system, determining vegetation structure, changing atmospheric dynamics and carbon cycling, and damaging human infrastructure and livelihoods. One need only think of the recent, extreme fire season on the US West Coast for an example of how serious the impacts of fire can be. Predicting where fire will occur and how intense it will be is critical for both human and ecological systems in the future. Fire modules in global biosphere models allow forecasts of fire frequency and intensity. However, incorporating fire into global biosphere models efficiently and accurately remains difficult because global models run at a coarse scale relative to that at which many atmospheric, oceanic, and ecological processes operate. One of the key missing components is realistic fire extinctions. Currently, most global models force fires to go out after some pre-determined interval instead of allowing them to burn for days to months. The extreme fires contribute the majority of the impacts in the Earth system, and capturing their effects is critical to useful predictions. Improving the understanding and representation of fire extinction mechanisms in global fire models may improve predictions of fire occurrence in the Earth system. The broader impacts of this project will be improvements in fire management at field sites and savannas more broadly, and training of postdoctoral associates.An incomplete understanding of fire extinction forces global fire models to rely either on statistical representations of fire pattern or on local, unscaled assumptions about fire behavior. As a result, fire models diverge wildly, from each other and from reality, in their predictions for past, current, and future fire distributions in the Earth system. In this project, the researcher ask why fires go out, first in savanna ecosystems, where fires are frequent and therefore data plentiful, then expanding into other flammable systems (including coniferous and Mediterranean systems like those in Western North America). Such data feeds into theoretical generalizations of fire extinction (Phase 1). The team predicts that fire extent will result from interactions between random heterogeneity in fuels/landscapes and underlying topographic, weather, or anthropogenic patterns in the landscape. They will then implement the results of this work into global fire models, beginning with CLM4-DGVM and SPITFIRE-JSBACH and then proceeding more broadly via collaborations with the Fire Model Intercomparison Project (Phase 2).This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

火是地球系统中的一个基本过程，决定了植被结构，改变了大气动态和碳循环，并破坏了人类的基础设施和生计。人们只需想想最近美国西海岸的极端火灾季节，就能看出火灾的影响有多严重。预测火灾发生的地点和强度对未来的人类和生态系统都是至关重要的。全球生物圈模型中的火灾模块可以预测火灾的频率和强度。然而，将火有效而准确地纳入全球生物圈模型仍然很困难，因为相对于许多大气、海洋和生态过程的运行，全球模型的运行规模较大。缺少的关键组件之一是逼真的火焰熄灭。目前，大多数全球模型都会强制火灾在一段预定的时间间隔后熄灭，而不是让它们燃烧几天到几个月。极端大火造成了地球系统的大部分影响，捕捉到它们的影响对于有用的预测至关重要。改进对全球火灾模型中灭火机制的理解和表示，可能会改进对地球系统发生火灾的预测。该项目的更广泛影响将是改善现场和稀树草原的火灾管理，以及培训博士后研究员。对火灾熄灭的不完全理解迫使全球火灾模型要么依赖于火灾模式的统计表示，要么依赖于对火灾行为的局部、无比例的假设。因此，火灾模型在预测过去、现在和未来地球系统中的火灾分布时，彼此之间以及与现实之间存在着巨大的分歧。在这个项目中，研究人员问为什么火灾会熄灭，首先是在稀树草原生态系统，那里火灾频繁，因此数据丰富，然后扩展到其他易燃系统(包括像北美西部的针叶和地中海系统)。这些数据为灭火的理论概括(第一阶段)提供了依据。研究小组预测，火灾范围将由燃料/景观中的随机异质性与景观中潜在的地形、天气或人为模式之间的相互作用造成。然后，他们将把这项工作的结果应用到全球火灾模型中，从CLM4-DGVM和Spitfire-JSBACH开始，然后通过与火灾模型比较项目(第二阶段)的合作进行更广泛的进展。该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的智力优势和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

项目成果

期刊论文数量（13）

专著数量（0）

科研奖励数量（0）

会议论文数量（0）

专利数量（0）

Herbaceous vegetation responses to experimental fire in savannas and forests depend on biome and climate

稀树草原和森林中草本植被对实验火灾的反应取决于生物群落和气候

DOI：
10.1111/ele.14236
发表时间：
2023
期刊：
Ecology Letters
影响因子：
8.8
作者：
Gold, Zachary J.;Pellegrini, Adam F.;Refsland, Tyler K.;Andrioli, Romina J.;Bowles, Marlin L.;Brockway, Dale G.;Burrows, Neil;Franco, Augusto C.;Hallgren, Steve W.;Hobbie, Sarah E.
通讯作者：
Hobbie, Sarah E.

Historical and future global burned area with changing climate and human demography