Collaborative Research: P2C2: Reconstructing Northeast Mexico Hydroclimate since the Last Interglacial Period

大多数气候模式显示，由于气候变暖，墨西哥各地的干旱程度有所增加。 然而，仪器数据，现有的古气候代理记录和气候模式模拟表明，该地区的降水表现出显着的年际到十年尺度的变化，在响应自然反复出现的内部气候模式。 更全面地了解自然变率和人为气候变化对墨西哥和美国西南部水资源的影响是很重要的，因为干旱频率和程度的增加对经济、农业、低纬度地区水文气候记录的发展对于评估区域气候对外部强迫的响应至关重要和气候变率的内部模式，用于调查热带和高纬度地区之间的遥相关，并用于评估气候模式。这项工作将解决几个关键问题的气候系统，包括：（1）东北墨西哥水文气候变化的相位与北方半球夏季日照？(2)在海因里希事件期间大西洋经向翻转环流（AMOC）强度的突然减少是否导致了墨西哥东北部的干燥条件？(3)十年到几十年尺度降雨变化的模式跟踪大西洋和/或太平洋海面温度吗？该项目包括利用洞穴沉积物更好地了解水文气候的潜力。该项目还将有助于研究生的科学培训和专业发展，包括一名墨西哥裔美国女性和多名本科生。首席研究员是一位美国土著女性，在过去的六年里，她指导了美国印第安人地球系统科学暑期研究所，这是一个为期两周的土著高中生住宿计划。研究人员和学生将把这项研究的各个方面纳入现有的外展工作，包括研究生院外展在年度社会促进奇卡诺人/西班牙裔和美洲原住民在科学（SACNAS）和美国印第安人科学与工程学会（AISES）会议，气候科学课程在当地教室，该奖项反映了NSF的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

The majority of climate models show enhanced aridity throughout Mexico as a result of climatic warming. However, instrumental data, existing paleoclimate proxy records, and climate model simulations demonstrate that precipitation in the region exhibits substantial interannual to decadal scale variability in response to naturally recurring internal climate modes. A more complete understanding of the impacts of natural variability and forced anthropogenic climate change on water resources in Mexico and the southwestern U.S. is important given the potentially serious impacts of increased drought frequency and magnitude on economic, agricultural, and public water supply issues.Development of hydroclimate records from low latitude regions is of critical importance for assessing the response of regional climate to external forcing and internal modes of climate variability, for investigating teleconnections between the tropics and high-latitude regions, and for evaluating climate models. This work will address several key questions about the climate system, including: (1) Does NE Mexican hydroclimate vary in phase with Northern Hemisphere Summer Insolation? (2) Did abrupt decreases in Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) strength during Heinrich Events lead to dry conditions in NE Mexico? (3) Do patterns of decadal to multidecadal scale rainfall variability track Atlantic and/or Pacific sea surface temperatures?This project includes a potential for greater understanding of hydroclimate using cave deposits. The project will also contribute to the scientific training and professional development of graduate students, including one Mexican-American female, and multiple undergraduate students. The lead investigator is a Native American female and for the past six years has directed the American Indian Summer Institute in Earth System Science, a two-week residential program for Indigenous high school students. The researchers and students will incorporate aspects of this research into existing outreach efforts, including graduate school outreach at the annual Society for Advancement of Chicanos/Hispanics and Native Americans in Science (SACNAS) and American Indian Science and Engineering Society (AISES) conferences, climate science lessons at local classrooms, and presentations at the Cambridge Science Festival.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.