Modeling Multi-Host Multi-Pathogen Infectious Diseases

多宿主多病原体传染病建模

• 批准号: 1815764
• 负责人: Zoi Rapti
• 金额: $ 20.99万
• 依托单位: University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 项目类别: Standard Grant
• 财政年份: 2018
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2018-09-15 至 2023-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1815764&HistoricalAwards=false
• 关键词: Modeling; Multi; Host; Pathogen; Infectious

Many pathogens - human and animal alike - act in tandem. The effects of two or more pathogens on the same host might not be easy to predict based on the known effect of each pathogen acting alone. Actually, many disease systems are composed of multiple hosts and multiple pathogens. The behavior and changes of pathogen and host populations in time are of interest to scientists and the public, when population conservation and management or contagion containment are considered. However, mathematical models of such systems become high-dimensional and contain many parameters that need to be determined from existing data. Their mathematical analysis is also not straightforward. As a study system, two Daphnia hosts (waterflea) and four of their pathogens will be considered. The two hosts also act as competitors for food resources and are subject to predation. Hence, they consist a suitable eco-epidemiological system for the development of new models and techniques. Progress made in terms of modeling and mathematical analysis will be applicable to other disease systems, such as those of pollinators, like bees and butterflies. This work will also create opportunities for the interdisciplinary training of students, both graduate and undergraduate. The investigators will partner with local high-schools and a children's museum to disseminate their findings and engage and train younger generations, with emphasis on underrepresented minorities.Through data-theory coupling, biologically realistic models will be generated. The diversity of hosts and pathogens under consideration will allow the investigation of a wide range of interactions among them. The resulting mathematical models will be highly nonlinear. They will be used to form testable hypotheses and to reveal the mechanisms that shape the epidemics. Besides models based on differential equations and discrete dynamical systems, coarse grained approximations will also be developed. Moreover, information theoretical techniques will be used as measures of the complexity of observed and simulated time-series and to reveal any existing patters, as well as chaos. This integrated approach will be used to reveal insights into the drivers of epidemics and facilitate their prediction.This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

许多病原体——无论是人类还是动物——都是同时起作用的。两种或两种以上病原体对同一宿主的影响可能不容易根据每种病原体单独作用的已知影响来预测。实际上，许多疾病系统是由多个宿主和多个病原体组成的。当考虑到种群保护和管理或传染病控制时，病原体和宿主种群的行为和变化是科学家和公众感兴趣的。然而，这种系统的数学模型变得高维，并且包含许多需要从现有数据中确定的参数。他们的数学分析也不简单。作为一个研究系统，两种水蚤宿主（水蚤）和四种它们的病原体将被考虑。这两个寄主也是食物资源的竞争对手，容易被捕食。因此，它们构成了一个适合开发新模式和新技术的生态流行病学系统。在建模和数学分析方面取得的进展将适用于其他疾病系统，例如蜜蜂和蝴蝶等传粉媒介的疾病系统。这项工作还将为研究生和本科生的跨学科培训创造机会。调查人员将与当地的高中和儿童博物馆合作，传播他们的发现，吸引和培训年轻一代，重点关注未被充分代表的少数民族。通过数据理论耦合，生成生物逼真的模型。所考虑的宿主和病原体的多样性将允许调查它们之间广泛的相互作用。由此产生的数学模型将是高度非线性的。它们将被用来形成可检验的假设，并揭示形成流行病的机制。除了基于微分方程和离散动力系统的模型外，粗粒度近似也将得到发展。此外，信息理论技术将被用来衡量观察到的和模拟的时间序列的复杂性，并揭示任何现有的模式，以及混乱。这种综合方法将用于揭示流行病的驱动因素并促进对其进行预测。该奖项反映了美国国家科学基金会的法定使命，并通过使用基金会的知识价值和更广泛的影响审查标准进行评估，被认为值得支持。

项目成果

Host Controls of Within-Host Disease Dynamics: Insight from an Invertebrate System

• DOI: 10.1086/715355
• 发表时间: 2021-09-01
• 期刊: AMERICAN NATURALIST
• 影响因子: 2.9
• 作者: Stewart Merrill, Tara E.;Rapti, Zoi;Caceres, Carla E.
• 通讯作者: Caceres, Carla E.

Lockdown measures and their impact on single-and two-age-structured epidemic model for the COVID-19 outbreak in Mexico

墨西哥 COVID-19 疫情的封锁措施及其对单年龄结构和两年龄结构流行病模型的影响

• DOI: 10.1101/2020.08.11.20172833
• 发表时间: 2021
• 期刊: Mathematical biosciences
• 影响因子: 4.3
• 作者: Cuevas-Maraver, J.;Kevrekidis, P.G.;Chen, Q.Y.;Kevrekidis, G.A.;Villalobos-Daniel, V.;Rapti, Z.;Drossinos, Y.
• 通讯作者: Drossinos, Y.

Indirect effects in a planktonic disease system

对浮游疾病系统的间接影响

• DOI: 10.1016/j.tpb.2019.07.009
• 发表时间: 2019
• 期刊: Theoretical population biology
• 影响因子: 1.4
• 作者: Rapti, Z.;Stewart-Merrill, T.E.;Mueller-Brennan, L.E.;Caceres, C.
• 通讯作者: Caceres, C.

Reaction-diffusion spatial modeling of COVID-19: Greece and Andalusia as case examples

• DOI: 10.1103/physreve.104.024412
• 发表时间: 2021-08-12
• 期刊: PHYSICAL REVIEW E
• 影响因子: 2.4
• 作者: Kevrekidis, P. G.;Cuevas-Maraver, J.;Kevrekidis, G. A.
• 通讯作者: Kevrekidis, G. A.

Temperate and chronic virus competition leads to low lysogen frequency

温带和慢性病毒竞争导致溶原频率低

• DOI: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2021.110710
• 发表时间: 2021
• 期刊: Journal of theoretical biology
• 影响因子: 2
• 作者: Clifton, S. M.